Big Idea: It took 50 years for markets to consolidate down to a few dominant players. Now it takes ten. rwang0 Wed, 05/05/2021 - 12:55
The Pace Of Change Continues To Accelerate
It took 50 years for markets to consolidate down to a few dominant players. Now it takes ten.
Countless industries went through gradual reorganization from hundreds or thousands of small players down to a couple of giants. But until very recently, the keyword was “gradual.” There’s no longer going to be a monopoly in each industry. In the next ten years, I expect to see about 100 dominant players in 50 distinct markets worldwide, in most cases with a duopoly of two giants per market.
Those giants won’t be equally strong. The first company to establish a Data-Driven Digital Networks (DDDN) will usually apply its first-mover advantage to take about half of the total addressable market. A second, more reactionary player will take about a quarter of the total addressable market. The remaining 30% (give or take) will go to small players who find ways to survive but have no hope of catching up to the giants. The monopoly has now become a duopoly.
My forthcoming book, Everybody Wants to Rule the World, outlines the very ways in which our playing field is changing and how you can compete to not only keep up but to win. It will be available everywhere on July 13th.
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