Results

Low-Code and Portals Webinar with Neptune Software

Low-Code and Portals Webinar with Neptune Software

Watch a webinar between CR analyst Holger Mueller and Neptune Software CSO Mattias Steiner about the winning combination of digitalizing low-code and portals for quick ROI.

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Constellation Cloud Convos: Episode 2

Constellation Cloud Convos: Episode 2

The following video is the second episode in a series of conversations about cloud technology between Holger Mueller, Constellation VP & Principal Analyst, and Thomas Saueressig, SAP Executive Board Member. In this segment, Thomas answers the question, "What matters in cloud architecture?"

On CR Conversations <iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/685466281?badge=0&amp;autopause=0&amp;player_id=0&amp;app_id=58479" width="960" height="540" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" title="CR Cloud Convos: Episode 2"></iframe>

Constellation Cloud Convos: Episode 1

Constellation Cloud Convos: Episode 1

The following video is the first episode in a series of conversations about cloud technology between Holger Mueller, Constellation VP & Principal Analyst, and Thomas Saueressig, SAP Executive Board Member. In this segment, Thomas answers the question, "What is the cloud all about?"

On CR Conversations <iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/685448686?badge=0&amp;autopause=0&amp;player_id=0&amp;app_id=58479" width="960" height="540" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" title="CR Cloud Convos: Episode 1"></iframe>

Enterprise technology customer success stories: Everything we learned from CXOs about AI, data, CX, transformation

Enterprise technology customer success stories: Everything we learned from CXOs about AI, data, CX, transformation

Enterprise technology customers in 2023 hit a few common themes that revolved around data strategy, setting their companies up for generative AI applications, transformation, sustainability, customer experience and continuous optimization to pay for new initiatives.

Here’s a look at the big lessons from 2023 (Constellation Insights PDF library).

Without data strategy you don’t have an artificial intelligence strategy. Those enterprises with a strong data game are poised to lead in AI and generative AI. "We declared five years ago that data and AI was going to be fundamental," said Intuit CEO Sasan Goodarzi, speaking at a recent investor conference. "And everything starts with data." See: Intuit’s bets on data, AI, AWS pay off ahead of generative AI transformation

"We believe that AI and generative AI will transform healthcare," said CVS Health CEO Karen Lynch. "We're applying technology, data and analytics to every single aspect of our business. The effects will be positive and profound." See: CVS Health’s transformation rides on data, AI and customer experiences

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said: "The management team is getting better and better at using data to do a better job of reducing errors, to serve clients better and to have a salesperson with co-pilots. We simply have to do it."

More on how data drives transformation.

Management and business alignment matters. CXOs outlined their approaches to management, aligning to the business and managing through tech debt.

  • BT150 interview: Wayfair CTO Fiona Tan on transformation, business alignment and paying down tech debt"My leadership team is there to ensure we have the right platform and infrastructure from a technology perspective to enable us to grow in a flexible, scalable, lean way."
  • BT150 Interview: Equifax's Manish Limaye on data architecture, transformation: "The ability to bring multiple datasets together seamlessly is an essential element of the architecture. Our transformation not only focused on the run of the mill cloud work, but really reimagining how we will bring the data together in our own data fabric. Prior to the cloud, if we have 10 data sets, they are sitting independently, and we join them together. It's a painful exercise. Now with the data fabric we built, we can tap the data at any point in the journey per the legal, regulatory and contractual obligations and really give deep insight to the customer. These are the business drivers behind every technical decision we make."

More:

Transformation remains front and center (and is never complete). While the definition and focus of transformation evolves, the overall theme of future proofing remains.

  • Walmart, Target highlight intersection of supply chain, customer experience Target COO John Mulligan said: "While there are many different ways our team is working to gain efficiencies and deliver value to the business, all of our projects have some things in common. First and foremost, they're all designed and implemented with a focus on our guest and continuing to build their engagement with Target. In keeping with that guest focus, we design processes and deploy technology and automation as a way to highlight the human element in our business rather than minimizing it."

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Sustainability is good business. Nate Melby, CIO of Dairyland Power, said sustainability, efficiency and transformation overlap.

"Sustainability is one of our largest goals. It intersects with technology, efficiency, and the data that we need to effectively manage the grid. Sustainability for us is also about the sustainability of our utility for the people that need us. We provide power in rural areas. We were created to solve the quality-of-life issue where it couldn't be profitable to provide power to rural areas. Our whole mission is to provide power at the lowest cost possible as efficiently and into the future with diverse resources. It's evolving as our industry has been changing, and we're seeing this energy transition happen."

 

It’s always about optimization and costs (and that includes generative AI).

John Stankey, AT&T CEO, said generative AI is driving cost savings at the company. He said during the company's third quarter earnings call: "While we're still in the very early stages of Generative AI, we're already seeing tangible AI-driven improvements in productivity and cost savings. Measurable progress has been made with lowering customer support costs, unlocking software development efficiencies, and improving our network design effectiveness. We expect these capabilities to play a key role in our continued efforts to achieve our future cost savings objectives." See: Enterprises seeing savings, productivity gains from generative AI

But it’s also about innovation (and of course generative AI). Multiple companies are looking to large language models that can be customized with proprietary knowledge.

Domino's Pizza CEO Russell Weiner said: "As you look back in the history of Domino's, we certainly have built more things internally when it comes to competitive points of difference. I think we've always said, you can't outsource a competitive point of difference. There's going to be a competitive point of difference with generative AI solutions, and we think we've got the resources and the pizza expertise internally." See: Domino's Pizza eyes generative AI, Microsoft and Uber tech to drive growth

 

Cybersecurity is front and center courtesy of new disclosure rules. In 2023, enterprises started disclosing security incidents regularly, due to Securities and Exchange Commission requirements.

And customer experiences matter. Enterprise initiatives revolved around data, generative AI, optimization and other themes, but the common thread between all of those projects were digital and customer experiences. The takeaway: Every company needs to provide good experience. Research: Connecting Experiences From Employees to Customers

Cenlar's Chief Digital Officer Josh Reicher on automation, AI and staying ahead

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Adobe and Figma: The What Would Taylor Swift Say Edition

Adobe and Figma: The What Would Taylor Swift Say Edition

In this, the year of Taylor Swift, it feels oddly fitting that Adobe and Figma have just announced their breakup. Like all good angsty love stories immortalized in an Era’s Tour set, we had the Figma indie-cool-kid rebel agreeing to roll with the digital class President in the established and voted Most Likely to Succeed Adobe. Torn apart by well-intentioned but out-of-touch outsiders, the two have closed this chapter of their idyllic yet improbably love affair. And while nobody is shouting that they will never, ever, E-V-E-R—like seriously never ever—get back together, for the near future their paths will be distinctly separate.

When the acquisition was announced in September 2022, my thoughts immediately went to where and how this merged vision of creativity and collaboration would materialize. Yet almost as soon as the headline ink was dried, I started to realize not everyone understood what Figma or Adobe actually DID for a living. Design was a loosely defined word being reinterpreted with almost every audience. Adobe critics lambasted my enthusiasm for the deal by insisting that this was Adobe attempting to push out the competition, running scared of another design tool hitting the market. Figma devotees feared the worst and believed the rumor mill that Adobe was out to crush independence and would immediately assimilate all digital innovators into the collective. The memes were glorious to behold, albeit totally off base.

Adobe, Figma call off $20 billion merger

In the end, regulators in Europe, very specifically the UK Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), publicly stated they believed the merger would lessen competition to a degree that it would remove incentive for Adobe/Figma to develop and improve the quality of its products. The CMA believed that the merger “would eliminate an important dynamic competitive threat to Adobe’s Illustrator and Photoshop” in a market they believed Adobe had already become the entrenched leader. Honestly, I’ve struggled to make any sense of these arguments. From what I could tell, the regulatory focus was more about the misunderstanding of design, creation and digital product than about attempting to understand the needs and evolution of the market.

So much has happened since the announced intention to acquire that I can’t help but chuckle that the regulators may have done Adobe a solid by dragging their heels and bungling these inquiries. Let’s, for argument’s sake, imagine a world in which the deal swam forward smoothly and realized a close date of mid-2023. This would have been in the THICK of the earth-shaking shift to generativeAI. Would the world be a bit different if Adobe had been pushed into deciding between the investment into Figma and the investment into bringing the Firefly portfolio of AI models to market? Would the same decisions around talent, focus, investments and roadmaps be made had the Figma closing also demanded attention and consideration?

Instead, through the lens of future-forward AI development, the Figma acquisition became a smaller distraction at just the right time, allowing Adobe to focus on what this new era of generativeAI would mean for creators and creatives. While regulators were lamenting that Adobe would use their posture in the marketplace to miss out on improvements and innovations, tools like Generative Fill and Firefly Image models have radically changed the work of creation in ways we couldn’t have truly envisioned when the headlines first broke about Adobe and Figma. The time free from the chaos of acquisition allowed Adobe’s roadmap leading us deeper into an AI-enriched creative future to truly unfold.

Don’t cry for Figma either. In fact, Adobe may have just handed over a billion-dollar budget boost that Figma needs to further power innovations and bring on the next evolution of digital product design and digital collaboration. During this vetting period, Figma has continued to grow in all the right places. The honest truth is that while Figma has been a start-up darling and a personal favorite of mine, they were quickly racing towards that danger zone every fast growing start up reaches…that point when the next evolution must occur to continue that meteoric rise up market…or stagnation takes hold and the bloom starts to quickly fall from the rose. Figma had not reached that point…but arguably they could have been about 6-months from that decision point of choosing between disrupting or being disrupted. Now, there will be an infusion of $1 billion dollars to pour gasoline on that promise of innovation-driven disruption.

These ex’es haven’t seen the last of one another. The teams have gotten to know one another, leaders have come to trust and respect one another and even the most ardent Anti-Adobe Figma fanatic has likely downloaded the new Adobe Express toolset and started to realize that perhaps, Adobe isn’t the evil overlord controlling creativity after all.

Thus ends the September to December romance known as Adobe + Figma. The future is truly bright for both Adobe and Figma to embrace what this new age of AI will bring to creativity, digital, product and design. But who knows what the tomorrow holds. Afterall, isn’t it Taylor Swift that sang, “Turns out freedom ain’t nothing but missing you, wishing I’d realized what I had when you were mine…I go back to December, turn around and make it alright. I go back to December all the time.” Just sayin…stranger things have happened.

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WalkMe in 2023: Adoption as Table Stakes in Digital Experience

WalkMe in 2023: Adoption as Table Stakes in Digital Experience

In London last week, WalkMe Analyst Day 2023 — an exploration of their progress so far with their digital adoption platform — began in the morning with a company overview by their CMO, Adriel Sanchez. Digital adoption is a vital new digital experience category that makes it significantly easier to increase impactful results for users with existing and new IT systems. WalkMe is arguably the leading player in the category and has long been an 'anchor tenant' on my digital adoption platform ShortList.

Adriel began the day by highlighting the paradox of digital transformation, noting that there will be $3.4 trillion in investment in this strategic activity by 2026, which WalkMe very much seeks to be a major part of. The paradox: Despite the abundance of technology, most projects fail and productivity often decreases. It's an unfortunate stat that hasn't changed much in 30 years, I'd note. This, he argues, is due to the ever-increasing complexity of workflows, tech overload, and the need for more effective change management. And really, he noted, there are three major obstacles:

  • Tech overload
  • Resistance to change
  • Risk and compliance regimes are growing

Adriel also explores generative AI, a powerful new technology that has the potential to revolutionize the way organizations work. However, he cautions that generative AI also requires careful change management to ensure its safe and responsible adoption.

WalkMe CMO Adriel Sanchez

WalkMe CMO, Adriel Sanchez, starts of WalkMe Analyst Day 2023 in London. Photo Credit: Dion Hinchcliffe

WalkMe's approach to digital adoption and change management is based on three key principles:

  • Data visibility: WalkMe provides organizations with insights into their friction points, allowing them to identify where and how to improve the user experience.
  • Personalized user experiences: WalkMe delivers personalized guidance to users in the context of their daily workflow, helping them to navigate new applications and processes more effectively.
  • AI-powered guidance: WalkMe leverages AI to understand user intent and provide contextually relevant assistance, reducing the need for manual support.

Adriel wrapped up by noting that WalkMe's actually has deep roots in AI and its ability to help organizations navigate the tsunami of change that is coming with the advent of generative AI.

WalkMe's approach to digital adoption and change management offers a powerful solution to the challenges faced by organizations in today's complex technology landscape. By providing organizations with visibility, personalization, and AI-powered guidance, WalkMe seeks to help them achieve the full potential of their digital transformation initiatives.

Then Leon Ashley provided a demo of the state of the art of WalkMe as a product. He also very cogenty summarizes the value proposition of digital adoption platforms like WalkMe, namely that they "allow you as an organization to take these massive platforms that have been built for global implementation and customize them not only to your organization's requirements, but your department requirements, your user requirements and really make it work for you."

Now digital adoption platforms typically provide real time guidance in-app, but it has traditionallly required that the user has launched the app. Leon notes that WalkMe Workstation can provide notifications on the desktop and even search the available guidance tree. Leon also provided a demo that shows how much WalkMe actually does for the user: "Let's remove the wasted clicks. Let's remove the waste of navigation. Let's remove training users how to use the application and just get the job done." He shows an expense request being almost completely filled out by WalkMe, with very little work done by the user, which merely directed it to happen. This is what digital adoption can do to systematically reduce friction, overcome usability hurdles, and eliminate training shortfalls. 

Leon then switched over to generative AI, talking about how WalkMe can form a powerful front end for AI marketing tools like Jasper or software development AI tools, GitHub Copilot. They actually rolled out WalkMe internally on their own engineering team which had low adoption of Copilot.

Adrien returned and talks about the WalkMe business, noting that the company is now profitable and has over 1,000 employees. They are also working on getting customers to more systematically adoption the product, a profile they call a "DAP customer." He says, "This is how we define a digital adoption or adapt customer, as someone who has deployed us on four or more applications. to us, that is the bar that we've set that shows that organization has a commitment to digital adoption as a methodology for implementing technology through managing the change that's required at these technologies. Walkme has over 180 of this more strategic DAP customers, with the majority being earlier in the adoption curve.

Profile of WalkMe DAP Customers by Type

So, where do digital adoption platforms get used the most?

“The two most popular departments that we're solving problems for HR and sales, by far, like there's no not even like a distant second distant third” said Adriel. He also noted that WalkMe is used both for legacy applications as well as new software deployment, as it can help just as much with both application profiles. Big system integrators also are large users of WalkMe in their own or customers projects, to speed deployment. "Deloitte deployed on hundreds of applications across over 100,000 employees."

Then Adriel talked about what it takes for AI transformation, which WalkMe is positioning its product as directly enabling:

  • Data: Train LLMs to work for your business
  • Training and education: Educate employees and drive adoption of AI in the flow of work
  • Guardrails: Mitigate risk by deflecting certain behaviors
  • Utilization: Monitor utilization of embedded and native AI tools

Next up comes Ofir Bloch, a long-time executive at WalkMe who has been there since early in the company's journey through digital adoption. He reviews the latest State of DIgital Adoption report, which will be out in a couple of weeks.

Ofir Bloch, long-time WalkMe exec

Ofir Bloch, VP of Corporate Marketing, WalkMe explores the State of Digital Adoption 2024. Image Credit: Dion Hinchcliffe

He noted that "digital adoption is becoming a KPI in its own right." Not just the DAP software category.

“It’s becoming a priority for companies as they understand that they can no longer go buy technology and just hope that it works.”

On the adoption of WalkMe itself, Ofir explored fascinating hard data on the growth of Centers of Excellence for digital adoption, presenting data, a 42% growth in the number of digital adoption CoEs in the last two years.

The growth of digital adoption CoEs.

He also explores what the data shows are the key pillars of digital ddoption maturity:

- Evaluating tech use
- Process automation
- Outcome alignment
- User engagement measurement
- Unified user experience
- Engagement-boosting content

The Key Pillars of Digital Adoption Maturity

This is one of the first detailed views of maturity of digital adoption in the industry and is worthy of study, as the productivity boosts and cost savings represented by focusing on these are very considerable for the average organization that seeks them.

Benchmarking the typical results of digital adoption using WalkMe

Then KJ Kusch came up to explore their updated strategy and and value framework. As part of this, she has some very insightful data on the benchmarks for digital adoption, specifically:

  • 41% fewer business errors
  • 30% faster change adoption
  • 20% faster time to market
  • 60% faster user adoption
  • 25% increased user satisfaction
  • 35% faster onboarding
  • 51% faster user adoption

WalkMe says this results in an average 494% 3 year ROI and 6  month payback in initial investment. These are remarkable numbers, and because WalkMe can actually measure all this in the platform based on how its customers actually behave, these numbers are relatively rigorous collective analytics.

DeepUI: Adapting to the Continuous Change of Apps

Liya Spiegel, Director of Product Experience, then took us through the DeepUI technology that they use to map content to the fields and control fo underlying applications. Acquired in 2018, DeepUI is instrumental in keep WalkMe content matched with the fields in the apps, including high Web responsive applications and even localized apps with fields in entirely different languages. Based an underlying AI technology, DeepUI ensures when applications like Salesforce or Workday change across releases, the WalkMe digital adoption content continues to function as expected. It has 8 granted patents and is a key competitive differentiator for their digital adoption platform.

DeepUI, the framework WalkMe uses to keep digital adoption working across underlying software releases

Customer Success at WalkMe

Next up was Sunil Nagdev, the new Chief Customer Officer of WalkMe, talked about improving customer success. "It's an important piece for me and when I came to WalkMe, it was really important for me was to understand how we do our land and expand because that's the most critical piece of our business itself" in terms of strong organic growth.

Sunil summarized the main areas of challenge in doing this:

  • Implementation cycles
  • Responsiveness
  • Scale and sustain
  • Underutilization

I also sat with Sunil at the dinner the night before analyst day and he came across to me as quite thoughtful and very much concerned about growing deeper customer intimacy while turning the relationship with them into one where WalkMe becomes a trusted advisor.

Time to value is also a area Sunil is focused on, getting WalkMe implementations down to 4-6 weeks, at least for initial deployment. My analysis is that Sunil is going to be instrumental growing customer lifetime value and increasing the average number of  apps per customer that are accelerated by the WalkMe platform.

He is also bringing the concept of what he calls "scaled adoption" to the table at WalkMe, so that just-in-time microlearning and a revamped certification program will ensure customers are able to "hold their weight" in helping deliver the success of the solution. He will round this out with a customer advocacy program as well.

Sunil Nagdev, Chief Customer Officer, WalkMe

WalkMe's Trajectory Heading into 2024

Here's my analysis of where the company sits today and where it's going next year:

  • The company's growth and financials are strong and the firm is healthy, with revenue up year-over-year, including net income up an impressive 62%.
  • WalkMe's technologies, such as Deep, UI and various digital adoption patents ensure it has very good competitive differentiation for the time being.
  • The company is poised to move much more from single-app, single use case deployments to multiple-app, multiple use case rollouts next year with their new customer success focus.
  • This is vital for WalkMe to grow as it gains size, given that most customer organizations are still leaving considerable productivity and value creation on the table due to limited digital adoption deployments, the data presented at analyst day clearly showed.
  • Where the company remains challenged is systematically moving beyond departments like sales and HR, and their new partner program, the Propel program may be instrumental in making that happen. I also think the company has to not just sell to the CIO, but also to executives in charge of employee experience overall, which have a vested interest in long-term post-rollout success.
  • The company has also assembled new frameworks, education, tools, and a more strategic advisory approach that should foster broader deployments across more apps and departments within customers in 2024 and beyond.
  • Digital adoption stubbornly remains a category with limited industry awareness, but this is changing, and the data showing the double digit rise of centers of excellence for digital adoption is a very good sign for the company.
  • Enabling AI transformation directly as a digital adoption strategy as generative AI rolls out across enterprises around the world should add to the growth story as WalkMe matures their offerings for this in 2024 and beyond.
  • Digital adoption as a category is getting closer to breaking out, and WalkMe still stands to be the company that leads this given their product and go-to-market maturity, but will like be 2-3 more year still before it becomes a "household name" in IT.

Additional Reading

How Leading Digital Workplace Vendors Are Enabling Hybrid Work

WalkMe in 2022: An Update on the Digital Adoption Journey

How Generative AI Has Supercharged the Future of Work

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Alteryx goes private in $4.4 billion deal: What to watch next

Alteryx goes private in $4.4 billion deal: What to watch next

Alteryx is going private in a $4.4 billion deal including debt. Clearlake Capital and Insight Partners will pay $48.25 a share in cash for each Alteryx share.

The price is a 59% premium to Alteryx's closing price Sept. 5 when reports surfaced about the potential buyout.

Mark Anderson, CEO of Alteryx, said going private via the Clearlake and Insight transaction will give the company more flexibility to implement its long-term strategy. "Over the past several years, we've executed a comprehensive transformation strategy to enhance our go-to-market capabilities and establish a strong cloud and AI innovation roadmap," said Anderson.

Constellation ShortList™ Self-Service Data Science & Machine Learning

Alteryx has been trying to consolidate analytics customers on its self-service data science and machine learning platform. Alteryx is looking to be one platform for data discovery, preparation, diagnostic and predictive and prescriptive analytics and has oriented its go-to-market strategy around targeting personas.

Constellation Research analyst Doug Henschen said:

"Privatization and private equity backing will help to stabilize Alteryx. Alteryx provides a mix of data prep, analytics and AI/ML with a dose of data pipeline/analytic automation capabilities.

Competition has intensified from cloud vendors, like AWS with its SageMaker Suite and Google with Vertex AI, and from best-of-breed rivals like Dataiku and Data Robot. In addition, analytics and BI vendors, like Tableau and Microsoft with Power BI have also been pushing into data prep and advanced analytics. For its own part, Alteryx was late to the cloud, and it has also had a fair amount of executive turnover in recent years, all of which have intensified the headwinds of tougher economic conditions.

Nonetheless the company has a big installed base, and private-equity ownership should ease concerns about the company's future even if there may be short-term concerns about layoffs and continued investment in R&D. Customers should watch for signs of continued investment and commitment to product roadmaps."

As a private company, Alteryx is looking for air cover to accelerate its transformation currently underway. Here's the to-do list for Alteryx going into its buyout.

Expand the enterprise customer base. Alteryx has 49% of the global 2000 and big names including Chevron, Amazon, Procter & Gamble, DHL, Salesforce, IBM, Visa and others.

Uplevel its sales strategy to target personas including business customers, and analysts as well as chief data officers.

Optimize its enterprise license agreements and convince customers that it can be the analytics automation platform of choice. 

Scale its revenue base. Alteryx said it will have fiscal 2023 revenue between $942 million to $948 million. In 2022, Alteryx revenue was $855.35 million, up from $536.13 billion, largely due to its Trifacta acquisition and purchases of Hyper Anna and Lore IO. In 2022, Alteryx also launched its Analytics Cloud Platform.

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ServiceNow acquires UltimateSuite, adds task mining

ServiceNow acquires UltimateSuite, adds task mining

ServiceNow said it will acquire UltimateSuite, a task mining company, in a move that brings the company more in line with automating processes and tasks as well as workflows.

UltimateSuite's flagship product revolves around task mining, but it also offers robotics process automation (RPA). In recent years, ServiceNow has acquired parts that put it more in competition with Celonis and UiPath on multiple fronts.

ServiceNow said the purchase of UltimateSuite bolsters its ability to identify process bottlenecks as it uses AI to automate work. UltimateSuite will be integrated into ServiceNow's Now Platform.

ServiceNow CEO McDermott talks business transformation, generative AI, processes

According to Eric Schroeder, vice president of NowX product management at ServiceNow, task mining can reveal "a more accurate picture of how people work."

ServiceNow has acquired G2K and Element AI for AI automation tools, Intellibot for RPA, and has built process mining into its Now Platform. ServiceNow also announced a partnership with Celonis in 2021 and reportedly has tried to acquire the process mining company.

Related:

 

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Adobe, Figma call off $20 billion merger

Adobe, Figma call off $20 billion merger

Adobe and Figma are calling off their $20 billion merger since the deal was unlikely to get regulatory approval from the European Commission and UK Competition and Markets Authority.

In a statement, the companies said they both "continue to believe in the merits and procompetitive benefits of the combination" but there was no clear path to approval. Adobe and Figma announced plans to merge in 2022

Adobe will pay Figma a $1 billion breakup fee, according to an SEC filing. CEO Shantanu Narayen said:

"While Adobe and Figma shared a vision to jointly redefine the future of creativity and productivity, we continue to be well positioned to capitalize on our massive market opportunity and mission to change the world through personalized digital experiences."

Constellation Research CEO Ray Wang said Adobe will likely build a competing product to take on Figma.

“The UK's CMA ultimately played a key role in stopping Adobe's acquisition of Figma. From a competitive point of view, this move makes no sense as the products are tangential. Adobe builds creative tools and Figma enables work coordination among creatives. This type of regulatory overreach stifles innovation across sectors. Adobe will now have to pay Figma $1B and then build a competitive offering to challenge Figma."

Constellation Research analyst Liz Miller said:

"I'm not sure the regulators could have misunderstood markets, solutions or categories more than in this case. But then again, considering how many times marketers and creatives must explain their jobs as NOT being advertising it shouldn’t really shock anyone. The reality is that this is a bit of a melancholy decision: the opportunity to truly shake up the product development space was considerable with this deal and for many mutual customers who got a taste of what could be when the teams would informally brainstorm pre-deal-closure.

So now what? Adobe will power forward with tools already announced in 2023 that focused on the intersection points of analytics and product design. We will likely see more focus on how insights from product performance can be automated into workflows and actions. The goal is to create more self-driving, self-healing and self-advancing digital products that understand when unintended points of user friction and frustration derail experience and engagement. The backbone of a solid solution in AdobeXD still exists, but only time will tell if Adobe has the appetite to truly take on that market. As we have seen throughout the regulatory questioning, there is plenty of market and customer appetite for a Figma alternative. But Adobe may not want to derail focus that has been advancing revenue.

This DOES open the door to some interesting options specific to where that cashflow may go. Is another acquisition already in Adobe’s view? Based on the earnings call last week, the digital media and document sides of the business are growing, but it seems that while digital experience is growing that growth is sluggish in comparison to competitors in the marketing and customer engagement/experience spaces. Perhaps a shake up on that side of the cloud is next."

Marketing Transformation Future of Work Next-Generation Customer Experience adobe B2C CX Chief Information Officer

Why vendors are talking RPOs, pipelines, pilots instead of generative AI revenue

Why vendors are talking RPOs, pipelines, pilots instead of generative AI revenue

This post first appeared in the Constellation Insight newsletter, which features bespoke content weekly.

Enterprise technology vendors see strong revenue growth ahead due to generative AI, but they're clearly stuck in the hurry up and wait phase when it comes to recognizing sales. In other words, technology vendors are increasingly talking about generative AI pilots, remaining performance obligations (RPOs) and pipeline in lieu of actual revenue.

This focus on future revenue instead of actual revenue has picked up in recent earnings conference calls. Oracle highlighted RPO in its recent second quarter earnings results, which were mixed. Oracle CEO Safra Catz said the company's RPO topped $65 billion with about 48% of that sum expected to be recognized as revenue over the next 12 months. In an SEC filing, Oracle noted that 35% of the $65.5 billion will be recognized as revenue in 13 months to 36 months and 17% recognized more than 3 years from now.

At the very least, 17% of Oracle's RPO should be heavily discounted. Revenue more than three years from now is worth less than if it were collected today.

Catz said that Oracle is building data center capacity to meet demand. Oracle CTO Larry Ellison said: "We have to build 100 additional cloud data centers because there are billions of dollars more in contracted demand than we currently can supply. Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) demand is huge and growing at an unprecedented rate. In the next few weeks, we expect to sign a couple more billion-dollar Cloud Infrastructure contracts."

Ellison also said OCI will have a growth rate topping 50% in the future due to generative AI and database demand.

RPO was also a topic for Adobe on its fourth quarter earnings call due to several large enterprise transformational deals that gained momentum due to generative AI. RPO for Adobe’s fourth quarter was $17.22 billion, up 13% from a year ago.

C3.ai CEO Tom Siebel recently talked more about pipeline and pilots over RPOs, but the theme was similar. There's revenue growth on the way, but we are not there just yet.

Siebel said:

"In Q2, we closed 62 agreements, including 36 pilots and trials. Our new pilot count is up 270% from a year ago. Notably, 20 of these were generative AI pilots, a 150% increase from Q1. With the lower entry price points of our pilots, we are more easily able to land new accounts. With our pilots, we are engaging customers across a diverse set of industries in this quarter. Our pilots came from manufacturing, federal, defense, aerospace, pharmaceuticals and other industries."

All those pilots sound promising, but so far, C3.ai's revenue has been between $72 million and $73 million for the last three quarters.

Dell Technologies Chief Operating Officer Jeff Clarke recently said on the company's third quarter earnings conference call:

"The pipeline for AI-optimized servers tripled quarter-over-quarter during Q3. Lead times remain 39 weeks, demand is ahead of supply. We continue to work to improve supply. And we're working now to convert that pipeline into real sales into orders, so we can continue to ship and benefit from this exciting time."

The problem with the focus on pipeline, total addressable market and future revenue potential is that it's hard to value. In some cases, this potential revenue may never hit the top line. For technology vendors, generative AI is at a promising yet unfulfilling stage in terms of actual revenue.

Enterprise buyers are interested in the generative AI use cases and may even be recognized as pipeline for many vendors. However, strategies are still being formulated along with budgets. There's also another reason to be a touch skeptical about the pipeline and RPO chatter: Enterprises may agree to spend over time but are also managing payments because they can earn interest income while the vendors wait for the checks.

It's likely that the next round of technology earnings in January and February will feature more RPO and pipeline talk. The key themes to watch are the following:

  • RPO increases for vendors as customers commit to longer-term contracts.
  • The time frames associated with those long-term contracts and how much is being stretched out beyond 24 months.
  • What is the value of revenue two years from now to Wall Street?
  • Payment terms. Are annual payments over because enterprise buyers are seeing better returns from interest rates relative to vendor discounts?
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