First things first - quick thoughts in the video: (if the video doesn’t show up, check here)
(if the slide doesn’t show up, check here)
- The Future is Services - We know services are the future - vs. CAPEX style perpetual licenses. Combos of software and human services (aka BPO, more modern BPaaS) have a future, not doubt.
- Accenture can bring cloud load - The idea would be that Accenture can 'persuade' most of its customers to move to Oracle products, and provide the services. Stands and falls with 'client leakage'. But Oracle needs load for its cloud to be competitive.
- The 21st century "IBM" needs services - Ellison wants Oracle to become the IBM of the 21st century - what the IBM of the 20th century had was services. So Accenture is the missing piece.
Never ever, because
- Product vs Services DNA - These are like fire and water - they need each other but never live well together.
- Accenture dilutes Oracle's margin - It's all about P/E ratio, less E means a smaller P... not good for Oracle shareholders, who may not be happy.
- Services under pressure - There is a lot of talk about digital disruption - but a function that has been thoroughly disrupted by software - is system integrator services. Gone are the 1000+ FTE projects, a dozen consultants is a large project these days. So why would Oracle acquire a player in a systematically struggling industry - and one that Oracle disrupts itself with its cloud products?
I would be very surprised if this merger would happen. It’s unlikely that Oracle / Larry Ellison will make the mistake from the 90ies twice – when the integrated product and services Oracle offering feel short in the market when competing with the SAP (product only) and SI combo (back then the Big 7 in case you remember). Basically, the Big 7 influenced customers to implement… where there would be revenue stream for them.
On the flip side one could argue that the market is no longer the same as in the 90ies. Customer want all in one shot, and want it as fast as possible, maybe even need their solution as fast as possible to keep operating. But what has not changed is the stock market: Predictable revenues with predictable margins – and that is so much more attractive with (cloud) software than with cloud related services.