Economists are urging policymakers to understand and respond to AI job disruptions.
The full text of this letter is here:
AI may become radically more powerful over the next 10 years.
This could drive an unprecedented transformation of our economy, larger than the Industrial Revolution, but unfolding over a vastly shorter time frame. It could bring risks, including large-scale job displacement, as well as opportunities such as major gains in living standards.
Economists, policymakers and technology leaders must act now to understand the economics of transformative AI and to build the incentives, guardrails, and institutions needed to steer AI in a direction that complements humans and benefits society.
Boy, that's a touch academic.
This letter got a lot of press and frankly I'm not sure why. There's a bit of alarm ringing and that's great if job displacement actually happens because you can say "I told you so." If it doesn't rest assured we'll forget these three paragraphs.
A few thoughts:
1. The key words here are "could" and "may."
2. We don't know how this turns out or whether AI can live up to its hype.
3. AI has been blamed for layoffs, but honestly most of the cuts were due to overhiring during Covid.
4. Timing is everything. We don't know if we're talking job displacement in 4 months, 4 years or 40 years.
Bottom line: AI job displacement should be studied, but the jury is out on what needs to happen. Can you really "build the incentives, guardrails, and institutions" based on what you hope AI will do?

