People have the AI bubble all wrong. It's not a technology bubble. It's a real estate bubble that rhymes more with the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 than the dot-com boom. That's the takeaway from a post by Groundbreaker.
The gist:
"The market is pricing AI as a technology cycle when its actual anatomy is that of a credit-driven real estate cycle - which is precisely why the 2008 mechanics apply - and the two break for entirely different reasons.
Technology cycles are driven by innovation and adoption; their risks are obsolescence and competition; they live or die on whether the product is wanted, and they can de-rate slowly as the future is repriced.
Real estate cycles are mechanical: leverage, hard assets, occupancy - debt-financed construction at scale, commercial leases disguised as take-or-pay contracts, and long construction lags that guarantee supply arrives after demand has turned. Walk down the AI build-out and every feature is a property development in disguise: a data center on entitled land, financed with debt against the structure and leased to tenants on take-or-pay terms."
Hat tip to Wall Street money manager George Noble for flagging the Groundbreaker post.