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Royal Dutch Shell Spreads Data Science Success

Royal Dutch Shell Spreads Data Science Success

Shell center of excellence grows data science talent, masters funding and innovation challenges.

Sometimes the value of a case study is in learning about what was achieved, while in other cases it’s all about how it was achieved. I think my latest case study, about the Data Science Center of Excellence (COE) at Royal Dutch Shell (Shell), works on both levels, but the most interesting nuances relate to how Shell’s COE is organized and funded.

If you’ve attended recent Alteryx Inspire or Microsoft Ignite events, you might have heard a bit about Shell’s achievements. I first learned of Shell’s efforts to spread data science capabilities at Alteryx Inspire 2018 in Anaheim, where Deval Pandya, a Shell data scientist, gave an great talk on how the COE is helping to spread the power of advanced analytic methods without hiring armies of hard-to-find data scientists. COE execs work with line-of-business and supporting tech teams for a few days at a time, helping to spearhead innovation projects. They then coach these teams and help to harden the technologies so that can be sustained in production. Pandya cited successes including an inventory optimization project – detailed at great length in my case study – that has since been leveraged globally and is saving Shell millions of dollars annually.

I encountered Shell again at Microsoft Ignite 2018, where keynote attendees heard a bit about Shell’s use of Azure cloud service and advanced capabilities including machine vision and Internet-of-Things-style sensor monitoring. Several of these projects, as well as the associated business benefits, are also detailed in my case study.

It’s always great to hear about innovative tech projects and to see and meet customer executives at vendor events, but for Constellation Research, that’s just the beginning of the conversation. Where vendors tend to highlight just how their products were used, Constellation aims to share holistic insight on every aspect of innovation, including all relevant technologies and how the project – or, in this case, the COE -- was organized.

I’ve written about plenty of centers of excellence, competency centers and innovation centers, but two things struck me as being atypical about the Shell Data Science COE. For one thing, Shell has separated the tasks of data science innovation, which is led by the COE, and that of handling ongoing operational execution of completed data science applications. The latter task is handled by Shell’s Business Service Center. The key point is that innovation is often disruptive, whereas those in the ongoing operational role naturally seek out continuity and proven best practices.

“If you want a group that’s going to stay ahead of the latest trends, you can’t ask them to also operate everything,” observes Daniel Jeavons, general manager of data science at Shell and the key figure quoted throughout my report. “Our role is up front trying to identify the technologies that need to be developed and built out to the point of maturity.”

The second way in which Shell’s COE stands out has helped it avoid budget hardships. Because it’s under Shell’s Technology Group, which is tasked with driving innovation and differentiation, the COE has what Jeavons describes as a healthy mix of research-and-development and project-based funding.

“We need to be a catalyst for change within the organization, but that’s hard if you’re constantly trying to justify your existence with project funding,” he explains. “The business is paying us to run projects that deliver value now or in the near term, but at the same time we have the opportunity to innovate” [because of the funding dedicated to R&D and innovation].

There’s much more to learn in the Shell case study, including insight on its analytics stack and how and why it makes use of two major public clouds. There’s also insight on AI and IoT initiatives that are bearing fruit. But my key takeaway on Shell’s success is that it has found a way to balance stable execution that delivers value and, through the COE, breakthrough innovation that might be disruptive, but that is helping Shell to change its industry and the very foundations of its business.

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Super Nova Awards

Super Nova Awards

CCE 2012

On <iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/313489991?badge=0&autopause=0&player_id=0&app_id=75194" width="1280" height="720" frameborder="0" title="Super Nova Awards" allow="autoplay; fullscreen" allowfullscreen></iframe>

DisrupTV: Strong Leaders Elevate Inclusiveness and Empathy

DisrupTV: Strong Leaders Elevate Inclusiveness and Empathy

“Everyone wants to earn, learn and belong. These are universal human hungers.”

Great comment from Angela Blanchard, President Emerita at BakerRipley & Senior Fellow at Brown University, last week on DisrupTV. The show themed around inclusiveness, not just in business but through every aspect of our lives.

Angela works with displaced individuals brought or forced into new communities (due to natural disasters for example) and helps government entities and other organizations effectively integrate and serve them. She explained that people don’t want handouts; they just want to be part of the story.

As leaders in these types of situations or even in business, the biggest piece is empathy. Clear and simple. Be thoughtful and sensitive to what came before you and understand every new project we take on is also an end to someone else’s story, hard work or livelihood. It’s all about trust in leading through disruption.

She also explained the importance of improvisation and understanding the resources in your arena. What you did last time may not work, so be nimble and work with what you have at hand. This interview is a must-watch; I even got goosebumps!

Digital Inclusiveness

The theme of inclusiveness continued with Tim Springer, Founder & CEO at Level Access. His organization focuses on digital inclusiveness and making technology a profound force in the lives of individuals with disabilities. We have to ask ourselves, “how can WE change the world and outcomes of people’s lives?” Again, empathy and understanding are key to making our products, organizations and world better for everyone.

The term disability seems to mean “worse” or “not normal” in our society. We need to flip the script. It’s not about solving problems but enhancing the skills they bring to the table. While each individual may have a shortcoming, they also have advanced skills that should be empowered with the right tools in place. Leaders should embrace these unique qualities in their workforce and also work with companies like Level Access to ensure their products and offerings are accessible and optimized for everyone. It’s not just the law but also an essential piece for building a stronger, more inclusive world.

Tim also shared some great advice as an entrepreneur on building a business and the process and decisions behind VC funding.

Workplace Inclusiveness

“Leadership comes from all walks of life, not just the C Suite,” explained Dion Hinchcliffe, VP and Principal Analyst at Constellation Research. Sometimes it comes from outside with change agents or from team members fresh out of school. Be inclusive in your brainstorming, planning, and programs. The traditional hierarchy of companies is not the best way to succeed in today’s environment. With the impact of technology, digital transformation and shifting business models, our environments are changing faster than we realize, and sometimes it’s too late. 

With big change, there’s certainly a high failure rate. Break things down into manageable programs and projects and be ready to shift when the window opens. Get out there quickly with what’s working and cut what’s not. Dion shared some great case studies on effective leadership and programs that are thriving in this new exponential and constantly changing business ecosystem.

This is just a small glimpse at the great advice shared during the show. Please check out the full discussions in the video replay here or the podcast. Special thanks to our guest host this week, Alan Lepofsky, VP and Principal Analyst at Constellation Research.

Tune in every week for DisrupTV, hosted by Vala Afshar and R “Ray” Wang, on Fridays 11 AM PT/2 PM ET. Ensure inclusiveness is at the center to build a strong, rewarding environment for all of us.  

DisrupTV Episode 134, Featuring Angela Blanchard, Tim Springer, Dion Hinchcliffe from Constellation Research on Vimeo.

 

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DisrupTV at Davos – It’s all about the People; Three Trillion Reasons & Investment

DisrupTV at Davos – It’s all about the People; Three Trillion Reasons & Investment

DisrupTV broadcasted live from the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting at Davos this morning to discuss some of the major themes and initiatives coming from the event. The show’s hosts R “Ray” Wang and Vala Afshar interviewed Tifenn Dano Kwan, CMO at SAP Ariba, and Ron Cao, Founder & Partner at Sky9 Capital about the conversations they’re having and what they hope to get from being in Davos this year.  

Beyond the trust, globalization and leadership topics the show covered yesterday (also echoed by today’s guests), Kwan shared her company’s “3 Trillion Reasons” campaign and movement, which aims to inspire and raise awareness around the world. Companies can make real social, global and human impact by pushing strong values of transparency, human rights and sustainability through the partnerships and practices they choose in thier supply chains. We are at a pivot point, and global leadership needs to take a stance to make positive changes for the future.

Conversations around the global economy, investments and China are also part of this year’s topics. Cao works with early stage startups and touched upon the investment scene in China. While we may get excited and distracted by the “hot” tech, such as blockchain, AI, 5G (all discussed during the interview), it still comes down to the people creating, governing, and buying these products. People are at the heart of impacting where we are headed for the future, which is why he focuses on investing in talent and working with smart entrepreneurs who have great ideas.

This is just the highlights! Check out the full, insightful interviews here and on the podcast.

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DisrupTV On the Road at Davos 2019 – Trust, Skills Gap & Culture

DisrupTV On the Road at Davos 2019 – Trust, Skills Gap & Culture

DisrupTV is on the road this week at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting at Davos. R “Ray” Wang and Vala Afshar interviewed a few guests live at the event to share some of the major themes coming out of this historic gathering of some of the most influential leaders around the globe.

 

Where is the trust? 

 

There’s this feeling of gloom around technology, especially as it relates to trust with our data, according to David Kirkpatrick, founder and editor-in-Chief at Techonomy. He explained that the attendance of the event has shifted with more technology leaders, and there are increased discussions around the impact of privacy, distrust of Facebook and the fear of losing our data completely with the developments of technology, such as IoT, Alexa, 5G, blockchain, etc.

 

One of the biggest themes of the show is trust.  It’s wrapped into all of the discussions from business and technology leaders alike. Citizens are looking to business leadership to help solve the issues of our time, including political, economic, ethical and societal topics. They are looking for other options as they don’t think governments are solving these issues effectively.

 

It’s time to reskill our workforce

 

With the advancements in technology, there’s a major skills gap that we need to address as we move into a new wave of multiplied innovation. Hosting challenges is a great way to inspire innovation and diversity of thought, explained Mike Morris, CEO at Topcoder

 

Another wave of change elevated at the event includes globalization and the realization that the world is flat where everyone should get paid fairly for their intellectual capital regardless of location. To disrupt in this exponential era, companies need to compete for the same talent as Apple and Google, for example. The next generation will not be sitting in cubes, and remote working from anywhere in the world will be the typical work environment. His company already is 100% remote and can recruit the top talent from anywhere. How companies and countries look at and produce talent will be a big theme at next year’s event, Morris explained.

 

Build a Strong Culture that Instills Trust

 

To close out the discussion, DisrupTV caught up with Gurvinder Singh Sahni, Chief Marketing Officer at Appirio, a Wipro Company. Echoing the sentiments earlier in the show, there is a deficit of trust in the tech sector. It’s important to work on a strong culture and understand that it correlates to how much your customers and community trusts you. Actions truly speak louder than words.

 

This is just the highlights! Check out the full interviews here and on our podcast. Tune in tomorrow for more interviews and takeaways from Davos.

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Event Report: Retailers Navigate Exponential Tech Amidst New Business Model Shifts #NRF2019

Event Report: Retailers Navigate Exponential Tech Amidst New Business Model Shifts #NRF2019

 

Retail Innovation Continues To Improve As Budgets And Margin Grow

Over 40,000 attendees gathered at Jacob Javitz convention center in New York City for the annual big show (see Figure 1.) The show kicked off with a keynote from BJ’s Wholesale Club Chairman, President, and CEO Chris Baldwin. Chris conveyed the impact of retail on the economy with $2.6 trillion in US GDP, one third of Americans starting their first job, and one in four jobs in the U.S. Despite the stereotypical grim outlook, Baldwin noted that retailers had 2,000 net new store openings in 2018.

Figure 1. Registration at Javitz Center

Top Trends Highlight A Business Model Shift

Top retail trends for 2019 include both technology and business model shifts (see Figure 2). New business models include:

  • Mass personalization at scale
  • Multi-channel return optimization
  • Private labels
  • Checkout free retail
  • Pop-up stores
  • Small format stores
  • Stores as distribution centers
  • Digital supply chains
  • Micro warehousin

Figure 2. Retailers navigate exponential tech amidst new business model shifts #NRF2019

Key technology trends in order of importance:

  • AI and machine learning pervasiveness
  • Dynamic pricing and pricing optimization
  • Order management and order orchestration
  • Robotics and drone automation
  • Blockchain adoption

The Bottom Line: Retailers With Digital Efforts And New Business Models Will Win

Retail performance shows a growing dichotomy between the winners and losers. Brick and mortars who built digital business models will continue to lose market share and revenue to pure play digital players unless they adjust their business models for digital. Winners will continue to focus on contextually relevant, experience driven, design principles. Retailers must build joint ventures to counter the Amazon threat in order to invest enough in innovation. Partners with public cloud service providers such as Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure will be required to beat Amazon.

Your POV.

Did you enjoy NRF 2019? Are you in the midst of a retail revolution? Add your comments to the blog or reach me via email: R (at) ConstellationR (dot) com or R (at) SoftwareInsider (dot) org.

Please let us know if you need help with your Digital Business transformation efforts. Here’s how we can assist:

  • Developing your digital business strategy
  • Connecting with other pioneers
  • Sharing best practices
  • Vendor selection
  • Implementation partner selection
  • Providing contract negotiations and software licensing support
  • Demystifying software licensing

Reprints can be purchased through Constellation Research, Inc. To request official reprints in PDF format, please contact Sales.

 

Disclosures

Although we work closely with many mega software vendors, we want you to trust us. For the full disclosure policy,stay tuned for the full client list on the Constellation Research website. * Not responsible for any factual errors or omissions. However, happy to correct any errors upon email receipt.

Constellation Research recommends that readers consult a stock professional for their investment guidance. Investors should understand the potential conflicts of interest analysts might face. Constellation does not underwrite or own the securities of the companies the analysts cover. Analysts themselves sometimes own stocks in the companies they cover—either directly or indirectly, such as through employee stock-purchase pools in which they and their colleagues participate.

As a general matter, investors should not rely solely on an analyst's recommendation when deciding whether to buy, hold, or sell a stock. Instead, they should also do their own research—such as reading the prospectus for new companies or for public companies, the quarterly and annual reports filed with the SEC—to confirm whether a particular investment is appropriate for them in light of their individual financial circumstances.

Copyright © 2001 – 2019 R Wang and Insider Associates, LLC All rights reserved.

Contact the Sales team to purchase this report on a a la carte basis or join the Constellation Executive Network

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Work Coordination Vendor Smartsheet Acquires Slope

Work Coordination Vendor Smartsheet Acquires Slope

On Jan 15, 2019 Smartsheet acquired Slope

Future of Work

When Doing Good Is Your Business, You Still Need the Right Tools: Salesforce.org’s Acquisition of roundCorner

When Doing Good Is Your Business, You Still Need the Right Tools: Salesforce.org’s Acquisition of roundCorner

On Monday, January 14, 2019, Salesforce.org, the philanthropic arm of Salesforce, announced its acquisition of roundCorner, a software vendor focused on CRM for the nonprofit sector. Salesforce.org, formerly known as the Salesforce Foundation, is responsible for managing Salesforce’s 1-1-1 initiative. That entails donating 1% of profits, 1% of employee time, and 1% of technology to nonprofits.

In many ways, this acquisition is the logical next step in the long-standing relationship between roundCorner and Salesforce. A Salesforce platinum ISV partner, roundCorner has also received investment from Salesforce in the past. roundCorner’s products, particularly NGO Connect, have formed a core part of Salesforce.org’s offerings for in this space.

Constellation POV

We see two main take-aways from this acquisition:

  1. This is likely to be a happy and more comfortable long-term home for roundCorner
  2. The type of acquisition highlights the value and importance to customers of specialism

As a for-profit company, roundCorner was competing in a narrow but competitive market. Though bolstered by the partnership with Salesforce, it lacked the market presence of publicly-traded Blackbaud, for example. (For a view on the key players in the nonprofit CRM space, as well as the do’s and don’ts of nonprofit CRM, check out the excellent blog by the folks at Build Consulting.)

Coming officially under the umbrella of Salesforce.org ensures that roundCorner’s technology will continue to play a leading role in Salesforce’s nonprofit offerings. It also secures the long-term investment required to continue to innovate and build out these capabilities.

More importantly, this acquisition points squarely to the crucial role of specialist knowledge. Enterprise systems are only really effective when they are design to address the distinct needs of a given type of business, non-profit or otherwise. The tremendous power of Salesforce’s platform, applications, and ecosystem lies in a customer’s ability to configure those elements to meet their unique needs (while maintaining things like standard data structures and interoperability). The big drawback is that many customers who lack the capabilities and resources (read: most nonprofits) to do this on their own need something adapted to their needs out of the box.

Salesforce.org has been at this long enough to recognize that managing constituents and donors, administering grant processes, and organizing volunteers and events don’t have direct analogues in for-profit business operations. Bringing the specialist capabilities of roundCorner directly under the purview of Salesforce.org should accelerate the ongoing development of a Salesforce offering better tailored to the particular requirements of nonprofits.

Meanwhile, we’ll be watching to see if lessons learned about the value of specialist knowledge in the nonprofit sector influence other aspects of Salesforce’s core business as well.

Photo courtesy of Care International

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DisrupTV: The Pursuit of Workplace Happiness & Innovation in an Exponential, Techie World

DisrupTV: The Pursuit of Workplace Happiness & Innovation in an Exponential, Techie World

Technology has changed the way we work and will continue disrupting at an exponential pace. The latest episode of DisrupTV built upon the theme of embracing change from our last episode but took a timely look at some of the new tech showcased at CES and how it will impact our personal and professional lives. While constantly chasing the “next cool thing” can cause more chaos and frustration, if adopted correctly, technology can also support, improve and augment our skills in new ways for faster innovation. 
 
The Era of Multiplied Innovation.
 
Robotics. Cloud. AI. Quantum. Automation. All of the tech showcased at CES highlights the new era of multiplied innovation, explained Crawford Del Prete, chief operating officer at IDC.
 
His firm predicts that by 2025, 90% of code will be reused in different code repositories. He also shared that from 1964-2017, 500M apps were built. By 2030, another 500M will be created with multiplied innovation and the reuse of already created code. These numbers are substantial! 
 
How do we manage the chaos? Will we be in an AI-/machine-driven world? How do we build trust? What does security and privacy look like? What will digital transformation and business models look in a few years? Crawford provided some insightful advice for these questions during his interview.
 
Mashup What We Have and Leave the Others Behind.
 
Reuse or repurposing what’s available is a great way to build the next big thing, and mashups are building momentum in this new wave of innovation. Larry Dignan, editor in chief at ZDNet, covered the biggest news of the week from CES and around the globe. Companies are wanting to reinvent themselves by partnering completely outside of the norm. Avnet/Not Impossible Labs. Kroger/Microsoft. BMW/North Face. We will see some pretty cool tech coming from these types of collaborative partnerships that will disrupt the way we work and innovate. 
 
The conversation also covered what tech will stay, transform or become irrelevant, including cloud, AI, Digital Transformation and Facebook. Check out Larry’s fun and snarky take on these topics.
 
Give more than you take, and you will be more successful with the people around you.”
 
Great quote from Annie McKee, senior fellow and author of “How to Be Happy at Work.” Similar to the mashups and collaborative work environments, this idea translates to all parts of our lives from personal relationships, to innovation, to strengthening our business networks, to building great products, experiences and more.
 
Our workplace norms look different due to the exponential growth of innovation and technology. However, people are still the heart of the work and decision making. The “machine” won’t be taking over any time soon. Business need to embrace technology and remove the stodgy, 20th century standards of how companies should run. Our technology has developed and so should our processes. Flip that standard and change our cultures to support people learning, growing and changing. Annie provided some great takeaways for creating positive environments with friendships, mentoring and room to excel. We need to be appropriately stressed and challenged with the feeling of making a difference and being engaged. Happiness at work makes a difference.  
 
This is just a small glimpse at the great advice and hilarious anecdotes shared during the show. Please check out the full discussions in the video replay here or the podcast.
 
Tune in every week for DisrupTV, hosted by Vala Afshar and R “Ray” Wang, on Fridays 11 AM PT/2 PM ET. Build a path the happiness by embracing technology to make your work and personal life exponentially better, while also being a kind, generous person. 
 
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Musings - Why Open Source has won and will keep... winning

Musings - Why Open Source has won and will keep... winning

By now we know that Open Source has won for platform software and possibly even more... Time to look how it all happened and what the trends going forward are going to be.

 

 

 

 

My 2 eye openers…

Somewhere in the early 2000, Oracle dropped its multi-year, 1000+ FTE effort of an application server… to use Apache going forward… that was my eye opener as a product developer. My eye opener as an analyst was in 2013, when IBM's Danny Sabbah shared that IBM was basing its next generation PaaS, BlueMix on CloudFoundry… so, when enterprise software giants cannot afford to out-innovate opensource platforms, it was clear that open source war winning. As of today, there is no 1000+ people engineering effort for platform software that has started (and made public) built inhouse and proprietary by any vendor. The largest inhouse projects that are happening now in enterprises, the NFV projects at the Telco's, are all based on Open Source.

And there is certainly commercial success. IBM bought RedHat for US% 32B. And while early innovators (on can argue Open Source started with Hadoop) Cloudera and Hortonworks have just joined forces, other players are seeing record market valuations (e.g. MongoDB at US$ 4B+) or exists (e.g. MuleSoft by Salesforce for US$ 6B). And the next cohort of successful Open Source vendors are in the making, e.g. Confluent, Hashicorp, Kong to just name a few.
 

Why has Open Source won?

The most prominent reasons for this win of Open Source (and with that a community-based approach) over enterprise-based ones are the following:
 

Software Development in the 21st century

Marc Andreesen's prediction that "software eats the world" is more relevant than ever before. But for software to turn into this omnivore, a lot of software has to be built. And it can't be built in the traditional way, when enterprises license technology platforms, get trained (and certified) for a few quarters and then try to build their strategic software on them. An enterprise following this 20th century best practice would be hopelessly lost against the competition of the 21st century, being way to slow to build new, strategic, differentiating and disrupting software. But software has to work, and uncertainty in regards of capabilities and quality of underlying platform software slows next generation application projects down. Enters Open Source, where code is transparent, the better solutions become 'standards' faster and developers can repeat experiences across projects (and employers).
 

The Internet is the enabler

We often forget what fundamental change the rise of the internet has on best practices, and software development is no exception. Without the internet, Open Source would not be around today. The easy, cheap access to code repositories, the ability to download large code libraries fast, safely and on demand are key enablers of Open Source success. On the concern side, a fast, cheap and tamper free internet is key for Open Source success. Today we can see that Open Source success is limited where internet access is rate / slow (e.g. large parts of Africa) and internet access is monitored / limited content wise (e.g. authoritarian regimes). When your Open Source contribution could be regarded as cooperation with international communities and as such treason, developers will stay away from it. On the flipside these regimes may be tempted to instill malicious code into Open Source… something the Open Source community needs to be vigilant about.
 

More hands have never hurt software

At the end of the day, more developers make better software. The remarkable part of Open Source is that it was able to expand beyond the typical boundaries in regards of developers of traditional software projects, which run into issues beyond a few hundred developers typically. Open Source had to solve the distributed development challenge, and it has successfully. Building on the engineering ethos (and in some cases also some ego), Open Source has taped successfully in the desire of many developer and engineers to be part of something bigger, to improve something and most importantly to work on something that is near to their minds and dear to their hearts. Most importantly, Open Source has figured out how to scale to 1000s of developers / contributors – all working remotely. This has always been a key challenge for traditional vendor-based development forces.
 

More eyes have never hurt software

Similar to the mantra of more hands have never hurt software, more eyes have not hurt software either. Intrinsically, software is prone to defects at any level. Finding and fixing these is a tedious process. But more people seeing code, being able to fix code will help to make software better. Especially when these people work 'for free'. The limit of QA in even the most quality oriented development forces, has always been commercial acumen… at some point it does not make commercial sense to hire one more QA professional / code reviewer and / or run another test cycle… but when the people for this volunteer, and the cost 'is zero' – that equation can be moved way beyond commercially viable realms. That does not mean that developers testing Open Source are not commercially astute, but the community dynamics work in their favor: Finding a major defect – even late – gives a developer stature and chops in the developer / Open Source community. With the extra bonus, to potentially even provide the fix… to millions of users. A major motivator to spend one's free time (in most case) on software quality.
 

Layered software needs transparency

With more software needed, more software needs to leverage aka layer on top of more / other software. That process requires trust in underlying layers of the software. A black box will have a hard time to gain the trust of both developers and CxOs. Open Source, with visible source code, is in a better position here. If someone wants / needs to inspect Open Source code they are taken a dependency – on – feel free to look as long as you like. That openness and access is key for the success of Open Source, but seldom mentioned. 
 

 Free" is always a draw

Platform software has always been expensive – and tricky to price… It needed to be expensive enough to allow the vendor who created it to make a living (not e.g. fail like Borland, ultimately) but at the same time could not charge a premium, as the software built on it needed to be built as well. That traditional equation gets blown out of the window when it comes to Open Source… where 'free' is a major distortion to this equation. CxOs and architects are willing (or forced) to make compromises for a 'free' platform. In terms of capabilities and scalability and more. On the flipside the 'free' model of Open Source has hurt some of the innovators who try to make a living on it, but pretty much only service models have shown traction / success. So 'free' does not translate in free for the enterprise, but CxOs are ok to pay for services that are needed, they have been doing that all along. 
 
Why Open Source has won Holger Mueller Constellation Research HMCC
Why Open Source has won
 

Why will Open Source keep winning?

Now that we know Open Source has won, the question is… what is next? Will the next big thing come and replace Open Source? Or is Open Source here to stay? I tend to go with the latter. Here are the main drivers, why I see Open Source winning in the near and medium future (at least):
 

Software needs to be built faster

We already mentioned the need of more software needing to be built and needing to be built faster than ever before. There are three dimensions to build better software faster: People, process and tools. Given the talent challenge, little can be done on the people side. Software development processes have been chewed over and analyzed / designed all over. No matter if agile or water fall – there is little room for code acceleration once a methodology is established and tuned. Which leads us to the remaining variable, that is tools. As Open Source has largely taken out the tool market, it comes back to Open Source to innovate on the tooling. The beauty here is again the inherent nature of Open Source: If a developer sees an upside to improve tooling, they can start an Open Source Project… and other developers will join if the idea and progress seem to be in the right direction. The result is better tooling, that helps to build faster… and more on Open Source.
 

Cloud platforms need software fast

We are living in the era of the cloud computing landgrab… a handful or so IaaS players are fighting for market share and to power the compute loads of the enterprise. If there are vendors who ever were under pressure to build platform software fast, it is the IaaS players these days. And there is no faster way than building software than using Open Source. Especially when you operate on tight and tightening margins. So, it is no surprise that pretty much all IaaS players have standardized on one version of Open Source or another. Only close to their respective infrastructure, they have gone proprietary (still, often based on Open Source). As one of the ironies of the last years, we even see IaaS vendors launching their inhouse frameworks as Open Source projects and successfully establishing them in the market. Google is a master at this game, see the success of Kubernetes and TensorFlow.
 

Cloud platforms vendors need 'standards'

The other key part of a successful IaaS business is to down play the aspect of lock-in. Enterprises don't want to get locked-in any infrastructure, so they prefer standards that they expect can insulate them from lock-in. The definition of standard is of course… flexible. But adopting as successful Open Source API as standard … is a common accepted practice. The consequence of this market reality is, that IaaS players realize that Open Source, that is successful, is the door to standards. Therefore, we can see substantial competition on the timing of new Open Source initiatives and a reluctance to endorse a competitor's initiative early, albeit promising. Historically that behavior has hurt enterprises, see e.g. the fragmentation of 'standard' Unix and even more recently Linux. But the speed and need for adoption does not allow for this fragmentation, something that e.g. can be seen with the across the board adoption of Kubernetes. For enterprises standards are good, and that Open Source allows to create these standard faster and across the platforms, is even better news.
 

Enterprise SaaS is built on it

In the past, enterprise software focusing on the application tier, had the luxury to create the own application technology stacks. Pressure to deliver software faster, and the adoption of public cloud for enterprise SaaS, have let to the adoption of IaaS platforms in SaaS products. And with IaaS platforms embracing Open Source, we can see more enterprise application software running on Open Source than … ever. And enterprise software is the largest load out there, the one the IaaS vendors are after in the move to the cloud, and the load that the SaaS vendors need to move in order to remain competitive. The result of massive load means that a technology stack will become more adopted and with that more relevant going forward… every SaaS vendor moving to IaaS is brining load to Open Source. And with load comes more commercial interest, more interest by developers and so on. Load is the fuel of the Open Source (and cloud) flywheel.
 

Enterprises want standards

CxOs want to build software and operate it on as much standard as possible. As standards given them the chance / opportunity to transport load across computing platforms – albeit often in theory and on paper only. But the desire for standard is well understood by the IaaS vendors, who are more than happy to show the usage of Open Source and with it is substantial adoption numbers… and adoption makes standards. The good news is that standards are winning faster than ever, so the 'standard wars' of the 90ies of the last century are not happening (at least now). In contrary, standards are winning faster than ever. It took S3 about 5 years to become the default 'standard' storage interface. It took Kubernetes less than 3 years… and it took Tensorflow (some may debate if it has won yet) about 2 years to become the leading / de-factor standard everybody needs to support.
 

The community aspect is the genie that can't be put back in the bottle

Group dynamic processes have a life and dynamic of their own. Open Source succeeds with the community dynamics, that make it an innovative and unique process to create software. The power of the community in regards of elasticity of resources, worldwide capacity, seamless contribution, additional quality processes has made Open Source pretty much unbeatable. If there will be a better way to create and propagate software, it will very likely have to include the same community dynamics that have helped Open Source put the traditional, enterprise-based development team approach to rest. 
 
Why Open Source Will keep Winning Holger Mueller Constellation Research HMCC
Why Open Source Will keep Winning
 

MyPOV

Software is eating the world. But it would not happen without Open Source. It's practically impossible today to operate any technology product without using Open Source software. Should we be concerned? Possibly, but as long as the repositories of Open Source software source code are open, can be accessed and are shared… the (software) world is in a good place.



 
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