Results

DisrupTV at Davos – It’s all about the People; Three Trillion Reasons & Investment

DisrupTV broadcasted live from the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting at Davos this morning to discuss some of the major themes and initiatives coming from the event. The show’s hosts R “Ray” Wang and Vala Afshar interviewed Tifenn Dano Kwan, CMO at SAP Ariba, and Ron Cao, Founder & Partner at Sky9 Capital about the conversations they’re having and what they hope to get from being in Davos this year.  

Beyond the trust, globalization and leadership topics the show covered yesterday (also echoed by today’s guests), Kwan shared her company’s “3 Trillion Reasons” campaign and movement, which aims to inspire and raise awareness around the world. Companies can make real social, global and human impact by pushing strong values of transparency, human rights and sustainability through the partnerships and practices they choose in thier supply chains. We are at a pivot point, and global leadership needs to take a stance to make positive changes for the future.

Conversations around the global economy, investments and China are also part of this year’s topics. Cao works with early stage startups and touched upon the investment scene in China. While we may get excited and distracted by the “hot” tech, such as blockchain, AI, 5G (all discussed during the interview), it still comes down to the people creating, governing, and buying these products. People are at the heart of impacting where we are headed for the future, which is why he focuses on investing in talent and working with smart entrepreneurs who have great ideas.

This is just the highlights! Check out the full, insightful interviews here and on the podcast.

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DisrupTV On the Road at Davos 2019 – Trust, Skills Gap & Culture

DisrupTV is on the road this week at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting at Davos. R “Ray” Wang and Vala Afshar interviewed a few guests live at the event to share some of the major themes coming out of this historic gathering of some of the most influential leaders around the globe.

 

Where is the trust? 

 

There’s this feeling of gloom around technology, especially as it relates to trust with our data, according to David Kirkpatrick, founder and editor-in-Chief at Techonomy. He explained that the attendance of the event has shifted with more technology leaders, and there are increased discussions around the impact of privacy, distrust of Facebook and the fear of losing our data completely with the developments of technology, such as IoT, Alexa, 5G, blockchain, etc.

 

One of the biggest themes of the show is trust.  It’s wrapped into all of the discussions from business and technology leaders alike. Citizens are looking to business leadership to help solve the issues of our time, including political, economic, ethical and societal topics. They are looking for other options as they don’t think governments are solving these issues effectively.

 

It’s time to reskill our workforce

 

With the advancements in technology, there’s a major skills gap that we need to address as we move into a new wave of multiplied innovation. Hosting challenges is a great way to inspire innovation and diversity of thought, explained Mike Morris, CEO at Topcoder

 

Another wave of change elevated at the event includes globalization and the realization that the world is flat where everyone should get paid fairly for their intellectual capital regardless of location. To disrupt in this exponential era, companies need to compete for the same talent as Apple and Google, for example. The next generation will not be sitting in cubes, and remote working from anywhere in the world will be the typical work environment. His company already is 100% remote and can recruit the top talent from anywhere. How companies and countries look at and produce talent will be a big theme at next year’s event, Morris explained.

 

Build a Strong Culture that Instills Trust

 

To close out the discussion, DisrupTV caught up with Gurvinder Singh Sahni, Chief Marketing Officer at Appirio, a Wipro Company. Echoing the sentiments earlier in the show, there is a deficit of trust in the tech sector. It’s important to work on a strong culture and understand that it correlates to how much your customers and community trusts you. Actions truly speak louder than words.

 

This is just the highlights! Check out the full interviews here and on our podcast. Tune in tomorrow for more interviews and takeaways from Davos.

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Event Report: Retailers Navigate Exponential Tech Amidst New Business Model Shifts #NRF2019

 

Retail Innovation Continues To Improve As Budgets And Margin Grow

Over 40,000 attendees gathered at Jacob Javitz convention center in New York City for the annual big show (see Figure 1.) The show kicked off with a keynote from BJ’s Wholesale Club Chairman, President, and CEO Chris Baldwin. Chris conveyed the impact of retail on the economy with $2.6 trillion in US GDP, one third of Americans starting their first job, and one in four jobs in the U.S. Despite the stereotypical grim outlook, Baldwin noted that retailers had 2,000 net new store openings in 2018.

Figure 1. Registration at Javitz Center

Top Trends Highlight A Business Model Shift

Top retail trends for 2019 include both technology and business model shifts (see Figure 2). New business models include:

  • Mass personalization at scale
  • Multi-channel return optimization
  • Private labels
  • Checkout free retail
  • Pop-up stores
  • Small format stores
  • Stores as distribution centers
  • Digital supply chains
  • Micro warehousin

Figure 2. Retailers navigate exponential tech amidst new business model shifts #NRF2019

Key technology trends in order of importance:

  • AI and machine learning pervasiveness
  • Dynamic pricing and pricing optimization
  • Order management and order orchestration
  • Robotics and drone automation
  • Blockchain adoption

The Bottom Line: Retailers With Digital Efforts And New Business Models Will Win

Retail performance shows a growing dichotomy between the winners and losers. Brick and mortars who built digital business models will continue to lose market share and revenue to pure play digital players unless they adjust their business models for digital. Winners will continue to focus on contextually relevant, experience driven, design principles. Retailers must build joint ventures to counter the Amazon threat in order to invest enough in innovation. Partners with public cloud service providers such as Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure will be required to beat Amazon.

Your POV.

Did you enjoy NRF 2019? Are you in the midst of a retail revolution? Add your comments to the blog or reach me via email: R (at) ConstellationR (dot) com or R (at) SoftwareInsider (dot) org.

Please let us know if you need help with your Digital Business transformation efforts. Here’s how we can assist:

  • Developing your digital business strategy
  • Connecting with other pioneers
  • Sharing best practices
  • Vendor selection
  • Implementation partner selection
  • Providing contract negotiations and software licensing support
  • Demystifying software licensing

Reprints can be purchased through Constellation Research, Inc. To request official reprints in PDF format, please contact Sales.

 

Disclosures

Although we work closely with many mega software vendors, we want you to trust us. For the full disclosure policy,stay tuned for the full client list on the Constellation Research website. * Not responsible for any factual errors or omissions. However, happy to correct any errors upon email receipt.

Constellation Research recommends that readers consult a stock professional for their investment guidance. Investors should understand the potential conflicts of interest analysts might face. Constellation does not underwrite or own the securities of the companies the analysts cover. Analysts themselves sometimes own stocks in the companies they cover—either directly or indirectly, such as through employee stock-purchase pools in which they and their colleagues participate.

As a general matter, investors should not rely solely on an analyst's recommendation when deciding whether to buy, hold, or sell a stock. Instead, they should also do their own research—such as reading the prospectus for new companies or for public companies, the quarterly and annual reports filed with the SEC—to confirm whether a particular investment is appropriate for them in light of their individual financial circumstances.

Copyright © 2001 – 2019 R Wang and Insider Associates, LLC All rights reserved.

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Work Coordination Vendor Smartsheet Acquires Slope

On Jan 15, 2019 Smartsheet acquired Slope

Future of Work

When Doing Good Is Your Business, You Still Need the Right Tools: Salesforce.org’s Acquisition of roundCorner

On Monday, January 14, 2019, Salesforce.org, the philanthropic arm of Salesforce, announced its acquisition of roundCorner, a software vendor focused on CRM for the nonprofit sector. Salesforce.org, formerly known as the Salesforce Foundation, is responsible for managing Salesforce’s 1-1-1 initiative. That entails donating 1% of profits, 1% of employee time, and 1% of technology to nonprofits.

In many ways, this acquisition is the logical next step in the long-standing relationship between roundCorner and Salesforce. A Salesforce platinum ISV partner, roundCorner has also received investment from Salesforce in the past. roundCorner’s products, particularly NGO Connect, have formed a core part of Salesforce.org’s offerings for in this space.

Constellation POV

We see two main take-aways from this acquisition:

  1. This is likely to be a happy and more comfortable long-term home for roundCorner
  2. The type of acquisition highlights the value and importance to customers of specialism

As a for-profit company, roundCorner was competing in a narrow but competitive market. Though bolstered by the partnership with Salesforce, it lacked the market presence of publicly-traded Blackbaud, for example. (For a view on the key players in the nonprofit CRM space, as well as the do’s and don’ts of nonprofit CRM, check out the excellent blog by the folks at Build Consulting.)

Coming officially under the umbrella of Salesforce.org ensures that roundCorner’s technology will continue to play a leading role in Salesforce’s nonprofit offerings. It also secures the long-term investment required to continue to innovate and build out these capabilities.

More importantly, this acquisition points squarely to the crucial role of specialist knowledge. Enterprise systems are only really effective when they are design to address the distinct needs of a given type of business, non-profit or otherwise. The tremendous power of Salesforce’s platform, applications, and ecosystem lies in a customer’s ability to configure those elements to meet their unique needs (while maintaining things like standard data structures and interoperability). The big drawback is that many customers who lack the capabilities and resources (read: most nonprofits) to do this on their own need something adapted to their needs out of the box.

Salesforce.org has been at this long enough to recognize that managing constituents and donors, administering grant processes, and organizing volunteers and events don’t have direct analogues in for-profit business operations. Bringing the specialist capabilities of roundCorner directly under the purview of Salesforce.org should accelerate the ongoing development of a Salesforce offering better tailored to the particular requirements of nonprofits.

Meanwhile, we’ll be watching to see if lessons learned about the value of specialist knowledge in the nonprofit sector influence other aspects of Salesforce’s core business as well.

Photo courtesy of Care International

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DisrupTV: The Pursuit of Workplace Happiness & Innovation in an Exponential, Techie World

Technology has changed the way we work and will continue disrupting at an exponential pace. The latest episode of DisrupTV built upon the theme of embracing change from our last episode but took a timely look at some of the new tech showcased at CES and how it will impact our personal and professional lives. While constantly chasing the “next cool thing” can cause more chaos and frustration, if adopted correctly, technology can also support, improve and augment our skills in new ways for faster innovation. 
 
The Era of Multiplied Innovation.
 
Robotics. Cloud. AI. Quantum. Automation. All of the tech showcased at CES highlights the new era of multiplied innovation, explained Crawford Del Prete, chief operating officer at IDC.
 
His firm predicts that by 2025, 90% of code will be reused in different code repositories. He also shared that from 1964-2017, 500M apps were built. By 2030, another 500M will be created with multiplied innovation and the reuse of already created code. These numbers are substantial! 
 
How do we manage the chaos? Will we be in an AI-/machine-driven world? How do we build trust? What does security and privacy look like? What will digital transformation and business models look in a few years? Crawford provided some insightful advice for these questions during his interview.
 
Mashup What We Have and Leave the Others Behind.
 
Reuse or repurposing what’s available is a great way to build the next big thing, and mashups are building momentum in this new wave of innovation. Larry Dignan, editor in chief at ZDNet, covered the biggest news of the week from CES and around the globe. Companies are wanting to reinvent themselves by partnering completely outside of the norm. Avnet/Not Impossible Labs. Kroger/Microsoft. BMW/North Face. We will see some pretty cool tech coming from these types of collaborative partnerships that will disrupt the way we work and innovate. 
 
The conversation also covered what tech will stay, transform or become irrelevant, including cloud, AI, Digital Transformation and Facebook. Check out Larry’s fun and snarky take on these topics.
 
Give more than you take, and you will be more successful with the people around you.”
 
Great quote from Annie McKee, senior fellow and author of “How to Be Happy at Work.” Similar to the mashups and collaborative work environments, this idea translates to all parts of our lives from personal relationships, to innovation, to strengthening our business networks, to building great products, experiences and more.
 
Our workplace norms look different due to the exponential growth of innovation and technology. However, people are still the heart of the work and decision making. The “machine” won’t be taking over any time soon. Business need to embrace technology and remove the stodgy, 20th century standards of how companies should run. Our technology has developed and so should our processes. Flip that standard and change our cultures to support people learning, growing and changing. Annie provided some great takeaways for creating positive environments with friendships, mentoring and room to excel. We need to be appropriately stressed and challenged with the feeling of making a difference and being engaged. Happiness at work makes a difference.  
 
This is just a small glimpse at the great advice and hilarious anecdotes shared during the show. Please check out the full discussions in the video replay here or the podcast.
 
Tune in every week for DisrupTV, hosted by Vala Afshar and R “Ray” Wang, on Fridays 11 AM PT/2 PM ET. Build a path the happiness by embracing technology to make your work and personal life exponentially better, while also being a kind, generous person. 
 
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Musings - Why Open Source has won and will keep... winning

By now we know that Open Source has won for platform software and possibly even more... Time to look how it all happened and what the trends going forward are going to be.

 

 

 

 

My 2 eye openers…

Somewhere in the early 2000, Oracle dropped its multi-year, 1000+ FTE effort of an application server… to use Apache going forward… that was my eye opener as a product developer. My eye opener as an analyst was in 2013, when IBM's Danny Sabbah shared that IBM was basing its next generation PaaS, BlueMix on CloudFoundry… so, when enterprise software giants cannot afford to out-innovate opensource platforms, it was clear that open source war winning. As of today, there is no 1000+ people engineering effort for platform software that has started (and made public) built inhouse and proprietary by any vendor. The largest inhouse projects that are happening now in enterprises, the NFV projects at the Telco's, are all based on Open Source.

And there is certainly commercial success. IBM bought RedHat for US% 32B. And while early innovators (on can argue Open Source started with Hadoop) Cloudera and Hortonworks have just joined forces, other players are seeing record market valuations (e.g. MongoDB at US$ 4B+) or exists (e.g. MuleSoft by Salesforce for US$ 6B). And the next cohort of successful Open Source vendors are in the making, e.g. Confluent, Hashicorp, Kong to just name a few.
 

Why has Open Source won?

The most prominent reasons for this win of Open Source (and with that a community-based approach) over enterprise-based ones are the following:
 

Software Development in the 21st century

Marc Andreesen's prediction that "software eats the world" is more relevant than ever before. But for software to turn into this omnivore, a lot of software has to be built. And it can't be built in the traditional way, when enterprises license technology platforms, get trained (and certified) for a few quarters and then try to build their strategic software on them. An enterprise following this 20th century best practice would be hopelessly lost against the competition of the 21st century, being way to slow to build new, strategic, differentiating and disrupting software. But software has to work, and uncertainty in regards of capabilities and quality of underlying platform software slows next generation application projects down. Enters Open Source, where code is transparent, the better solutions become 'standards' faster and developers can repeat experiences across projects (and employers).
 

The Internet is the enabler

We often forget what fundamental change the rise of the internet has on best practices, and software development is no exception. Without the internet, Open Source would not be around today. The easy, cheap access to code repositories, the ability to download large code libraries fast, safely and on demand are key enablers of Open Source success. On the concern side, a fast, cheap and tamper free internet is key for Open Source success. Today we can see that Open Source success is limited where internet access is rate / slow (e.g. large parts of Africa) and internet access is monitored / limited content wise (e.g. authoritarian regimes). When your Open Source contribution could be regarded as cooperation with international communities and as such treason, developers will stay away from it. On the flipside these regimes may be tempted to instill malicious code into Open Source… something the Open Source community needs to be vigilant about.
 

More hands have never hurt software

At the end of the day, more developers make better software. The remarkable part of Open Source is that it was able to expand beyond the typical boundaries in regards of developers of traditional software projects, which run into issues beyond a few hundred developers typically. Open Source had to solve the distributed development challenge, and it has successfully. Building on the engineering ethos (and in some cases also some ego), Open Source has taped successfully in the desire of many developer and engineers to be part of something bigger, to improve something and most importantly to work on something that is near to their minds and dear to their hearts. Most importantly, Open Source has figured out how to scale to 1000s of developers / contributors – all working remotely. This has always been a key challenge for traditional vendor-based development forces.
 

More eyes have never hurt software

Similar to the mantra of more hands have never hurt software, more eyes have not hurt software either. Intrinsically, software is prone to defects at any level. Finding and fixing these is a tedious process. But more people seeing code, being able to fix code will help to make software better. Especially when these people work 'for free'. The limit of QA in even the most quality oriented development forces, has always been commercial acumen… at some point it does not make commercial sense to hire one more QA professional / code reviewer and / or run another test cycle… but when the people for this volunteer, and the cost 'is zero' – that equation can be moved way beyond commercially viable realms. That does not mean that developers testing Open Source are not commercially astute, but the community dynamics work in their favor: Finding a major defect – even late – gives a developer stature and chops in the developer / Open Source community. With the extra bonus, to potentially even provide the fix… to millions of users. A major motivator to spend one's free time (in most case) on software quality.
 

Layered software needs transparency

With more software needed, more software needs to leverage aka layer on top of more / other software. That process requires trust in underlying layers of the software. A black box will have a hard time to gain the trust of both developers and CxOs. Open Source, with visible source code, is in a better position here. If someone wants / needs to inspect Open Source code they are taken a dependency – on – feel free to look as long as you like. That openness and access is key for the success of Open Source, but seldom mentioned. 
 

 Free" is always a draw

Platform software has always been expensive – and tricky to price… It needed to be expensive enough to allow the vendor who created it to make a living (not e.g. fail like Borland, ultimately) but at the same time could not charge a premium, as the software built on it needed to be built as well. That traditional equation gets blown out of the window when it comes to Open Source… where 'free' is a major distortion to this equation. CxOs and architects are willing (or forced) to make compromises for a 'free' platform. In terms of capabilities and scalability and more. On the flipside the 'free' model of Open Source has hurt some of the innovators who try to make a living on it, but pretty much only service models have shown traction / success. So 'free' does not translate in free for the enterprise, but CxOs are ok to pay for services that are needed, they have been doing that all along. 
 
Why Open Source has won Holger Mueller Constellation Research HMCC
Why Open Source has won
 

Why will Open Source keep winning?

Now that we know Open Source has won, the question is… what is next? Will the next big thing come and replace Open Source? Or is Open Source here to stay? I tend to go with the latter. Here are the main drivers, why I see Open Source winning in the near and medium future (at least):
 

Software needs to be built faster

We already mentioned the need of more software needing to be built and needing to be built faster than ever before. There are three dimensions to build better software faster: People, process and tools. Given the talent challenge, little can be done on the people side. Software development processes have been chewed over and analyzed / designed all over. No matter if agile or water fall – there is little room for code acceleration once a methodology is established and tuned. Which leads us to the remaining variable, that is tools. As Open Source has largely taken out the tool market, it comes back to Open Source to innovate on the tooling. The beauty here is again the inherent nature of Open Source: If a developer sees an upside to improve tooling, they can start an Open Source Project… and other developers will join if the idea and progress seem to be in the right direction. The result is better tooling, that helps to build faster… and more on Open Source.
 

Cloud platforms need software fast

We are living in the era of the cloud computing landgrab… a handful or so IaaS players are fighting for market share and to power the compute loads of the enterprise. If there are vendors who ever were under pressure to build platform software fast, it is the IaaS players these days. And there is no faster way than building software than using Open Source. Especially when you operate on tight and tightening margins. So, it is no surprise that pretty much all IaaS players have standardized on one version of Open Source or another. Only close to their respective infrastructure, they have gone proprietary (still, often based on Open Source). As one of the ironies of the last years, we even see IaaS vendors launching their inhouse frameworks as Open Source projects and successfully establishing them in the market. Google is a master at this game, see the success of Kubernetes and TensorFlow.
 

Cloud platforms vendors need 'standards'

The other key part of a successful IaaS business is to down play the aspect of lock-in. Enterprises don't want to get locked-in any infrastructure, so they prefer standards that they expect can insulate them from lock-in. The definition of standard is of course… flexible. But adopting as successful Open Source API as standard … is a common accepted practice. The consequence of this market reality is, that IaaS players realize that Open Source, that is successful, is the door to standards. Therefore, we can see substantial competition on the timing of new Open Source initiatives and a reluctance to endorse a competitor's initiative early, albeit promising. Historically that behavior has hurt enterprises, see e.g. the fragmentation of 'standard' Unix and even more recently Linux. But the speed and need for adoption does not allow for this fragmentation, something that e.g. can be seen with the across the board adoption of Kubernetes. For enterprises standards are good, and that Open Source allows to create these standard faster and across the platforms, is even better news.
 

Enterprise SaaS is built on it

In the past, enterprise software focusing on the application tier, had the luxury to create the own application technology stacks. Pressure to deliver software faster, and the adoption of public cloud for enterprise SaaS, have let to the adoption of IaaS platforms in SaaS products. And with IaaS platforms embracing Open Source, we can see more enterprise application software running on Open Source than … ever. And enterprise software is the largest load out there, the one the IaaS vendors are after in the move to the cloud, and the load that the SaaS vendors need to move in order to remain competitive. The result of massive load means that a technology stack will become more adopted and with that more relevant going forward… every SaaS vendor moving to IaaS is brining load to Open Source. And with load comes more commercial interest, more interest by developers and so on. Load is the fuel of the Open Source (and cloud) flywheel.
 

Enterprises want standards

CxOs want to build software and operate it on as much standard as possible. As standards given them the chance / opportunity to transport load across computing platforms – albeit often in theory and on paper only. But the desire for standard is well understood by the IaaS vendors, who are more than happy to show the usage of Open Source and with it is substantial adoption numbers… and adoption makes standards. The good news is that standards are winning faster than ever, so the 'standard wars' of the 90ies of the last century are not happening (at least now). In contrary, standards are winning faster than ever. It took S3 about 5 years to become the default 'standard' storage interface. It took Kubernetes less than 3 years… and it took Tensorflow (some may debate if it has won yet) about 2 years to become the leading / de-factor standard everybody needs to support.
 

The community aspect is the genie that can't be put back in the bottle

Group dynamic processes have a life and dynamic of their own. Open Source succeeds with the community dynamics, that make it an innovative and unique process to create software. The power of the community in regards of elasticity of resources, worldwide capacity, seamless contribution, additional quality processes has made Open Source pretty much unbeatable. If there will be a better way to create and propagate software, it will very likely have to include the same community dynamics that have helped Open Source put the traditional, enterprise-based development team approach to rest. 
 
Why Open Source Will keep Winning Holger Mueller Constellation Research HMCC
Why Open Source Will keep Winning
 

MyPOV

Software is eating the world. But it would not happen without Open Source. It's practically impossible today to operate any technology product without using Open Source software. Should we be concerned? Possibly, but as long as the repositories of Open Source software source code are open, can be accessed and are shared… the (software) world is in a good place.



 
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CIO Predictions for 2019

It will be another interesting and eventful year in 2019, both in terms of opportunities as well as significant challenges, for Chief Information Officers (CIOs) around the world as they attempt to navigate an increasingly turbulent digital operating environment. It's an environment that's very much in the midst of major and ongoing systemic change in the collective technology and business landscape, both internally and externally to their organizations.

There's also no question that these market dynamics must be successfully navigated and exploited, yet only if the CIO has the resources and sufficient organizational posture. We'll get to the exact nature of the changes below, as well as what we think CIOs will do about them this year.

Making the overall task more complex is that these shifts are taking place on a backdrop of rather confounding forces: Ever-faster tech change, profound cybersecurity concerns, substantial regulatory changes, rapidly evolving customer preferences, and an overarching scarcity of talent that's ready and able to help cope with these shifts.

Currently, I see that the confluence of these issues is making it extraordinarily difficult for IT leaders to focus on a) longer term initiatives like effective digital transformation, b) delivering on projects with less than immediate payoff, c) taking time to explore the strategic possibilities of emerging technology, or even d) remediation of basic technical debt (the largest ongoing, slow burn headwind in many organizations.)

This means coping with immediate fires and obstacles has often resulted in an epic struggle to adequately deliver on key strategic multi-year objectives, vital to the attaining the largest payoffs in IT. The inability to do so is perhaps one of the main indicators of an organization that has become reactive to the forces that affect it. Instead, CIO success more than ever today means proactively setting the agenda and driving the business as well as the broader industry forward with an integrated and disruptive business vision based on effective new digital capabilities.

CIO Predictions and Trends for 2019 by Dion Hinchcliffe

What then is in store for the CIO in 2019? The real choice is stark: The top IT executives in today's rapidly evolving organizations must match the pace of change, fall behind, or lead the pack. That's the existential issue at stake in today's digitally-infused times, where bold action must be actively supported by out-of-the-box experimentation and pathfinding. Ths must be done while managing the inexorable daily drumbeat of operational issues, service delivery, and the distracting vagaries of the unpredictable, such as a major cyberattack or information breach. The CIO this year must be both a supremely masterful priority juggler and an effective digital leader from the front.

Here are my predictions for what CIOs will encounter this year, and how they will respond:

CIO Predictions for 2019

  1. The CIO will have their best-ever opportunity to partner with the CEO and the board. The reality is that most executive teams still lack qualified digital expertise at the leadership level. This is hampering strategic decision making across the enterprise when it comes to becoming a digital native organization. While the CIO can still be perceived as being from the old guard (i.e. IT as a cost center and support unit, or "part of the problem"), the data shows that more CEOs are now picking up the primary mantle of digital transformation, more so even than CIOs today. This creates a unique opening this year for the CIO to become a parter with the CEO and whomever else is driving digital transformation in the C-Suite and board of directors. While I have often encouraged the CIO to foster digital leadership skills, now is the best time to use them, to become a trusted advisor with an equal seat at the top table for mapping out the digital future of the organization. The CIO is uniquely equipped by virtue of understanding the needs of the business, owning many or most of the IT systems that run the business, and managing the invaluable data sets within them. CIO must successfully become what many were hoping the Chief Digital Officer (CDO) would become (though many have): Reinventing the organization as a true digital business and technology company.
  2. CIO attention will focus on customer experience like no time before, and collaboration with the CDO and CMO will grow. I have argued that today's continued deconstruction of the enterprise value stream into functional silos (marketing, sales, operations, delivery, customer care, and innovation/R&D) is no longer effective in a world where seamless customer experience is the most important discrimating factor for how a business will perform. In 2019, the CIO will need to help the organization make the transformations well beyond just solving the myriad problems with fragmented and disjointed digital touchpoints themselves. Instead, the CIO will need to begin tackling the tougher underlying problems in involved in creating a more integrated customer experience stack. This means creating genuine master data out of the dozens, and often hundreds, of the poorly integrated or disconnected digital platorms used to serve customers today. Then help the organization restructure the end-to-end customer experience capability from an org structure and process perspective. This won't be completed in 2019, and may take years, but the imperative is clear that getting the customer experience house in order will be absolutely required to thrive and grow, now and even more so in the future. This will require closely working in concert with other C-suite leaders, particular the CDO, CMO, and the Chief Customer Officer (CCO), which a great many CIOs this year will do.
  3. Cybersecurity will dominate operational reality, budgets, and management attention, closely following by digital regulation. For anyone keeping score, the sheer scope, seriousness, and breadth of cybersecurity breaches in 2018 showed that virtually all organizations are vulnerable. Consequently, nearly all CIOs will need to continue to up their game this year to invest time and some of their very best resources in keeping the organization safe. Getting caught up in a serious cybersecurity breach is now a career ender for the CIO and his/her peers, never mind the real and most important issue: The safety and privacy of customers, workers, and business partners themselves. This is an easy prediction, but I forecast that 2019 will ring in even more serious breaches and cyberattacks than 2018 as perpetrators continue to get more organized, often aided by the sheer connectedness of tech today. IT leaders need to exert themselves not only on the technology front, but in education and communications both upwards and downwards on prevention, preparation, and response, as well as scale up on-demand incident management teams and proactively exploring emerging security technologies such as AI-based adaptive detection and defense tools. Regulatory concerns such as ongoing work to ensure new and legacy IT systems comply with GDPR or California's new data privacy law will also be high on the list this year, as these regulations have emerged in key operating environments. There are potentially serious ramifications for compliance failure, as it's expected that regulators will begin ruling more actively this year.
  4. Digital transformation will become/remain a shortlist corporate priority, but most CIOs will be expected to proceed without (sufficient) new resources. It's a surprisingly little known fact outside the CIO's office that most of the IT budget is used to keep existing systems operating, supported, updated, and maintained. This leaves only minor budgets for innovation or creating new digital lines of business. In an era of all time high tech change and a corporate imperative to disrupt or be disrupted, most CIOs are only seeing single digital IT budget increases, despite often profound talent shortages and mountains of rapidly aging legacy systems/technical debt . I predict more CIOs will make bolder cases for more investment being routed to them for digital innovation initiatives, which is often happening outside of traditional IT today. The upshot: Tech spending is way up, it's just often not being given to the CIO. Leading CIOs will reclaim more of this funding for themselves and ensure it gets used effectively. Yet there is good news too: We now see that many vital elements of digital transformation that can be addressed without major new investment, from developing an enterprise-wide microservices strategy to steadily and proactively improving the master data story in an operational way. These two alone will enable the next generation of growth-creating digital experiences to be developed much more easily, quickly, and inexpensively. I've long observed that the most successful examples of digital transformation have a strong foundation story, often years in the making. At the very least, the CIO can prepare in this way during 2019 as the budget situation is improved this year.
  5. The CIO will be increasingly leaned upon as an innovator well beyond IT, but many will be relegated to a second-tier technology infrastructure executive role instead. More will be expected of the CIO in 2019, even as they wear too many hats already. I've explore the new CIO mindset in the past, but as digital infuses virtually every aspect of the business, the CIO no longer has nearly as much direct control over the use of the technology. Instead, as my good friend and IT leadership maven Mary Fran Johnson observed at CIO Perspectives last year in Virginia, influence must now be cultivated and wieldied "as the most important single role" of the CIO today. My prediction: This will be even more true this year. CIOs that are ineffective at using influence to cultivate change agents and drive progress across the organization as well as within the business itself will increasingly be pushed to the margins. CIOs with limited influences will have roles focused more on day-to-day technical functions of cybersecurity, infrastructure management, and business continuity instead of leading the business-focused digital transformation of the organization from the front.
  6. It will be a difficult year for CIOs to speed up digital change, as digital "tablestakes" continue to rise faster than solutions are found to become more agile, especially with emerging technology and big tech. The need for IT to move faster and meet stakeholder needs better has been a long standing issue (94% of CIOs I surveyed recently say they have strong or very strong pressure to move faster.) Some have predicted that traditional IT must ultimately break unless new ways are found to move quickly and more responsively. While advances like agile methods and devops has helped, we're going to need solutions on an entirely new scale. I predict the next-generation of IT service management will be forced to evolve quickly in 2019 to be more self-service, inclusive of far more cloud and mobile solutions, and behave much more like a responsive and useful enterprise app store than an frustrating, unsatisfying service desk, IT liason conversation, or procurement process. ITIL 4.0 is finally coming this year, but it won't have much impact in 2019. Instead, I predict that fundamental and outside-the-box rethinking of how IT can reduce time-to-value will be more prevalent this year. Breakthroughs will sorely be needed as tech leaders like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Elon Musk's companies continue to set the global pace, even creating real concern with CIOs that they will move next to compete directly in their own industry.
  7. Scarcity of talent will grow and continue to plague new IT initiatives, but some progress will finally be made on alternative talent sourcing. Powerful and rapidly maturing new technologies like big data analytics, Internet of Things, artificial intelligence (AI), and blockchain, to name just some of the most significant all offer the potential to create game changing competitive advantage for organizations. The technologies are available and improving rapidly, but the talent to turn them into effective tools for the business is usually not available in sufficient numbers. High demand for skilled IT staff has resulted in what is effectively negative unemployment in many sectors of the technology and IT worlds this year. CIOs will have a tough job acquiring the talent they need, from technology specialists in these areas, to mid-level and senior managers who can manage the increasingly complex delivery dynamics and web of interdependencies inherent within modern IT solutions. These are increasingly crafted out of an ecosystem of existing IT systems, corporate databases, 3rd party systems, open APIs, and open source software solutions and require those familiar with these many different sources of data and functionality. I predict that instead of competing for talent with the Amazon, Google, and Apples of the tech world, CIOs will move more toward cultivating higher impact educational resources for existing staff. These include aggressive apprenticeship programs, just-in-time online skill building, formal mentoring efforts, internal hackathons, and incubator programs to encourage development of skills, hands-on with the latest tech. I also see a trend that CIOs are demanding better learning resources from their vendors and CHROs both as well. Some of the former, like Salesforce, have actually stepped up with popular upskilling solutions like Trailhead.  More vendors are following and IT leaders will embrace them. I predict the IT industry will also see much wider use of emerging new on-demand talent sources like gig economy techical marketplaces in 2019.
  8. Vendor management will be seen to require a fundamental reworking as more IT shifts to SaaS and public cloud. As the gap between IT and the systems that the department actually oversees continues to grow wider -- I'm talking about the separation between IT and the actual resources it uses, which are moving steadily to the public cloud -- the issue of control has begun to return. This is because more and more net-new IT systems run mostly or entirely in the public cloud. Topics like outage management, vendor transparency, communication, responsiveness -- and ultimately, trust -- are taking on all new levels of importance when there's little IT can do except hope that a cloud vendor handles key operational events well when they occur. Getting a handle on service level management of these systems has become steadily more urgent given the sheer number of cloud-based applications and services most organizations use today. Service-level agreement (SLAs) have become a primary operational artifact that must be measured and managed far more closely by both sides. Over the last year, I've heard from the CIOs that I speak with and advise that there is a real desire for improved measurement, automation, and enforcement of cloud service levels. SLA analytics for public cloud is now becoming an industry and is becoming a growing part of the IT service management world. However, I do not expect better and more transparent SLAs to appear widely from cloud vendors yet, other than tweaks to the current uptime/outage dashboards that most of them provide. Instead, what I do see happening this year is steadily growing pressure on cloud vendors to start to offer some version of a "build-your-own-SLA" from templates containing acceptable ranges of parameters based on cost. The cloud has always risked cutting out the middleman, IT in this case. So without some level of control and configuration, IT's role becomes less valuable, even as it should remain the key responsibility that better adapts such solutions to the business. Thus, more variability and control over the service level details and compliance levels of cloud subscriptions will be an increasing push this year. Active governance, backed with data, over cloud SLAs will help sustain IT's relevancy well into the future.
  9. The push for automation, especially with AI technologies, will expand both within the CIO's own purview, and become a widespread priority with the most internal stakeholders to-date. It turns out that a key strategy to achieve a lot more in IT while experiencing relatively flat budgets is simply to automate more of what IT does. I'm on record saying that by 2025, 90% of what a CIOs is responsible for must be automated, just to tread water on existing service and staffing levels. But since the hype cycle began on machine learning and AI, automation has captured the imagination of business stakeholders like few other times in history. Helping drive this demand, technologies such as robotic process automation are maturing to the point that they can be rapidly fielded to automate nearly every type of rote business process or activity in fairly short order. The business benefits are considerable as the latest data shows as well, particularly in IT, surprisingly. I predict that rapidly increasing level of automation, both in IT and across the business, will be a top 5 focus for most CIOs in 2019, even if it isn't always called by that name.
  10. Employee experience will continue to see underinvestment, particularly in mobile solutions, leading to shortfalls in realizing digital experience for key stakeholders, even as emerging approaches create new promise. 2019 is the year that a high water mark of CIOs will conclude that their digital workplace is a mess, as applications and IT services continue to accumulate. I've seen an concerted effort in some organizations, mostly larger and more well managed enterprises, that are attempting to make a more holistic and integrated experience from what is essentially becoming a grab-bag of formally sanctioned productivity and business applications, mobile applications, and shadow IT. One approach is to create more designed end-to-end experiences around high value processes built on top of existing IT systems, or provide intelligent "super portals" that bring all the applications and data together into a more organized and searchable model. The right answer depends on the organization naturally, but I actively see leading CIOs experimenting to find the right combination of new approaches for employee experience in 2019. I am also sanguine for the likelihood that contemporary "intelligent" intranets, or even enterprise social networks and team collaboration platforms, are good centers of gravity for the overall employee experience. The data to bear out the most popular and effective target platforms for holistic employee experience will start to emerge this year as well. 
  11. The post-ERP era has arrived, and build vs. buy is back on the table as organizations seek to build their new Digital Core. The rise of highly effective low code tools combined with a great many IT products having APIs and/or microservices that make them readily reusable and recomposable, has led us to a strange path down from the mountain of long-held truth better known as "don't customize IT (especially ERP) systems, it's almost never worth it." Most companies now have well deployed, yet increasingly aging, ERP systems that now run much of the day-to-day business. With the rise of digital cores, it's not clear that organizations are well served by an ERP-focused system any more. Instead, as I've explored above, digital experience has become the new measure and digital boundary over which value is created and exchanged. Organizations now seek less monolithic systems and instead want to be able to access digital business functions and data in a way that can be projected into any touchpoint or experience. Low code tools and integration-platfoms-as-a-service (iPaaS) make it quite straightforward to weave just-in-time applications that meet stakeholders needs in short time periods, even for one-off processes in way that's cost effective. In the post-ERP era, data, services, processes, and experience that are well structured, shared, and accessible are becoming the differentiator and force multipler. I argue that this is enabling a much-needed new generation of experience creation to emerge that is highly industrialized and scaled. Instead of customization, new on-demand experience creation will provide the better significant strategic advantage in the near future. This will unleash mass customization, personalization, and perfect fit solutions. In 2019, I predict CIOs will be investing in exploring their options to create this important new fabric for growth and value creation/exchange.
  12. Multicloud will be a pervasive reality for most organizations, CIOs will push for more ways to take advantage of its benefits. Every organization today is multicloud, they just often don't fully realize it. IT organizations are inheriting whatever public cloud their SaaS and mobile application providers are using, plus whatever shadow IT and departmental apps use that are outside of IT control (see: the CMO's martech portfolio.) But CIOs are at last concerned about having their data and SLAs in so many buckets, and often not even having a grasp of which buckets. As more enterprise cloud vendors allows Infrastructure-as-a-Service (Iaas) to be swapped out of the bottom of their application stack with the customer's preferred commercial cloud of choice, there will be more motivation to understand multicloud dependencies in modern IT. This will lead to economy of scale and arbitrage of cloud capacity to the benefit of the business. Expect multicloud to be a hot topic for both governance and control as well as cost management in 2019.

Any single predictions list is likely going to leave out some interesting ideas. For example, I don't see CIOs engaged much in culture change for digital and so it's not listed here, but that is clearly one of the main obstacles to successful digital modernization and transformation. So please leave your own CIO predictions in comments for discussion below, or on LinkedIn or Twitter.

Related Reading:

Six Trends Affecting the Innovation-Led CIO

The Digital Transformation of Back-End Customer Experience

Constellation Research 2018 Digital Transformation Study

The Business Transformation 150 for 2019: Our global list of top digital leaders, including many top CIOs to follow

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2019 Predictions for Marketing, Sales, and Service: Market Mashups, the Rise of Specialists, and a Reinvigorated Grim Reaper

After the gentle lift-off of a mid-week start to 2019, it’s time to focus on the year ahead. Here are a few predictions of what’s to come based on signals we started to see by the end of 2018.

1. More Market Mashups

Companies are realizing that in order to become truly customer-centric, they have to do things differently. Software vendors are one step ahead of them. Anyone and everyone who thinks they have a better way of managing customer interactions or building customer insights will get into the action. Some already have. For the most part, this is blurring the lines between existing markets rather than creating new ones, but that could change.

Customer service meets sales and marketing. In November 2018, Zendesk announced new offerings in CRM and marketing automation, expanding beyond its stronghold in service desk. Expect others to follow their lead. While the jury is out on the strength of these capabilities and how successful Zendesk will be, the move represents an important addition to the market mix.

Service desk is inherently customer centric, so vendors coming from this space bring a fundamentally different philosophy to managing sales and marketing activities. This is good news for companies trying to build consistent customer experiences across marketing, sales, and service. Tools that provide a consistent view of customers but the flexibility to adapt to specific business practices across all three have tremendous potential.

Customer experience becomes just another enterprise app. SAP’s acquisition of Qualtrics offers more than an example of the multiples to be paid for expertise in assessing customer and employee experience. Perhaps most significantly, it’s an indication of the potential value of incorporating these insights into operations throughout an enterprise. That’s a very good thing. Marketing, sales, and customer service most obviously benefit, but insights straight from customers can (and should) influence just about everything a business does.

The full impact of tracking customer experiences (tracking is not the same as “experience management,” more on that here) lies in consistently operationalizing those insights. The first step is gathering them. The second is disseminating them appropriately. The third is doing something with them.

Workflows get specific. This is where things get interesting—and complicated. To design compelling and consistent experiences, especially across departmental silos, you need to create workflows. Those workflows, with customers the central focus, cut across departments, teams, and types of work.

While most of the large enterprise suite vendors would argue (with varying degrees of justification), that they already make such workflows possible, this isn’t their heartland. A wide range of vendors with different origins and backgrounds are tackling the challenge with various approaches. One example, Totango, describes itself as a customer success software provider. Using a data-driven, customer-centric approach, Totango provides the tools for analyzing customer data flows and building workflows to enable “success blocks.” These blocks are designed around specific outcomes and KPIs that describe success for both customers and the companies working with them.

Ring Central comes at the challenge from a different perspective. The call center vendor is building on its background in customer service and collaboration to unite (the theme of its 2018 event) customer experience and employee experience. In principle, by reducing the number of tools that employees use to work together and manage various channels of customer interaction, companies can significantly increase both employee engagement and customer satisfaction simultaneously.

Yet another example comes from robotic process automation (RPA). Ushur has built a system to combine workflow automation with engagement automation. The vendor offers a templatized approach and AI tools to analyze unstructured text and automate conversations based on content. Workflows address different types of conversations, such as customer service, claims processing, and billing, and can be tailored for specific requirements.

The scope and scale of workflows that impact customer experience are vast. They range from specific types of conversations on a micro level to customer lifecycles on the macro level. Some technology vendors will have the flexibility to address both. The biggest question is on what level companies will choose to tackle the workflow challenge first and where they go from there. As a result, expect this to emerge as an increasingly crowded (and confusing) market in 2019.

2. Specialists Rise to the Top and Bring the Biggest Value

Workflows provide a great segue to another important prediction for 2019: the rise of specialists. If you’re trying to achieve specific objectives, generic workflows and generic data management systems won’t cut it. Objectives and priorities vary from sector to sector and business to business. They’re integral to competitive differentiators.

As best practices get further baked into technology tools and automated workflows, it’s important to make sure they’re the right practices for you and your organization. Increasingly, that means going to vendors who really understand the particular challenges you face. The advantages included better tailored solutions and significantly faster time to results. That’s true across a broad range of technology areas, but here are just a few examples of specialists that are proving their worth.

MakerSights focuses on “decision-enablement” for the fashion sector of retail. They support the unique needs of fashion brands with a structured approach and process to product testing. Through a combination of the brands’ own customer contacts and a proprietary respondent community, MakerSights helps to close the gap between what brands think customers value and what customers really want. The vendor effectively combines data collection and analysis tools with forecasting that's accessible to a range of employee roles and genuine market expertise. The team at MakerSights is keenly aware of the financial risks of accumulating debt inventory, the need to align to the retail calendar, and how to streamline decades-old decision processes for testing and launching merchandise. Though the company’s customer base started with online retailers, established fashion retailers navigating brick and mortar and online are its fastest-growing segment.

Kahuna has tailored marketing automation for the distinct requirements of online marketplaces. Managing both sides of a market requires different approaches for buyers and for sellers, as well as a recognition that it’s possible to be both at the same time. Kahuna provides both the technology platform and AI tools to manage both audiences. The vendor also brings expert knowledge of managing the lifecycle of a healthy marketplace—the priorities during initial launch and growth aren’t the same once a marketplace is mature.

Mindtickle, a software and services company, specializes in sales onboarding and training—what it calls “sales readiness.” Through a combination of tools, including AI, and expertise in effective training techniques, Mindtickle works with sales organizations to make sales teams more productive. Beyond providing the most effective materials, approaches, and tools, the company tracks individuals and teams. By assessing their currency and proficiency—their readiness—Mindtickle believes it can help companies understand their capacity to sell as a predictor of revenue, not just assign sales targets.

All of these examples illustrate that the real benefit is in solving specific problems—and that’s where specialist knowledge is invaluable. As companies of all ilk reset their focus on understanding customers, expect them to turn to specialists for help.

3. The Scythe Comes Out for MarTech

Exciting as it is to find new providers of useful tools, there are way too many MarTech vendors out there for any reasonable marketing organization to come anywhere close to evaluating. Close to 7,000 at last count, according to Scott Brinker and Anand Thacker. And though the last several years have brought even more expansion in the competitive landscape, this might just be the year that the Grim Reaper sets his sights on all that fodder.

The possibility of a recession in 2019 will drive (much needed) consolidation in the MarTech sector. At a macro level, recession or reasonable fears thereof will put pressure on marketing budgets, reducing available spend on new technology tools. Simultaneously, marketing departments will more closely examine the comparative return on all of the tools they use. Those that don’t deliver meaningful value will be cut.

Companies will evaluate where specific tools provide critical capabilities and deliver measurable returns across KPIs tied to customer engagement and understanding. Technologies that address multiple areas and integrate easily are more likely to make the cut. So are the ones that—wait for it—provide specialist capabilities that incorporate relevant best practices.

Yes, we’ll undoubtedly see a fair bit of merger and acquisition activity. But if fears of recession prove concrete, many vendors simply won’t find a reasonable exit. That should worry the thousands and thousands of MarTech vendors out there.

What's your view? What do you anticipate in 2019?

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DisrupTV: The Only Constant is Change, and It’s Gaining Momentum

It’s a new year, and while I don’t like setting unobtainable resolutions, I do take the opportunity to reset and create a clear path for the next 6-12 months. This week on DisrupTV, a solid theme arose from our interviews that we should all consider as we set off to find success in this new year.

Embrace Change.

 “Today will be the slowest things will ever be moving,” explained Stuart Miniman, host & senior analyst at theCUBE. Let that sink in…

The speed in which technology is disrupting business processes is daunting. We adopt these new tools with the purpose of easing a pain points, but they sometimes make our work lives much more complicated (just ask your IT guy/gal!). And while we spent some time on the show geeking out on the techy topics, such as multi-clouds, SaaS, serverless, AI, containers and IoT, this theme translates to all parts of an organization. You can’t stand still and get stuck in “this is how we do things.” That’s exactly how you get left behind.

Augment Humanity.

Rachel Happe, co-founder & principal at The Community Roundtable, expanded upon the sentiments. She was trained to do better than technology. Times are changing; we need to train people to complement technology. We need to do what AI and other technologies can’t, she explained.

We, as humans, provide creativity and the authentic connections needed to build strong communities. Our value lives in the true personalization at each touchpoint that technology can’t offer. We are the weakest link if we don’t change our mindsets and build our skillsets in a new way. She expressed the need to truly engage, build relationships, and learn, alongside the tools available to us.

Meet Without Distractions.

Embracing change is a good focal point for 2019. The end goal will still be there, but if we can stay nimble through the constant state of change, we can meet that end destination in maybe a better way than we imagined.  

So how do we cut out the noise, manage the chaos and get a solid standing in the ever-evolving world around us? Technology has and will continue to accelerate how we conduct business. We must change WITH technology but also learn there’s time to grow and change WITHOUT it.

Here’s a place to start: Set up meetings without distractions. This may mean pulling out the trusty notepads and leaving phones/computers turned off (Gasp!). Visual Strategist Heather Willems discussed the importance of focusing your attention in meetings. Using visual strategy to draw up what is being said helps focus the conversation, heighten engagement and capture the essence of sometimes complete chaos. The final product helps illustrate goals, action plans and direction for the team. You can then present it visually to create a constant reminder for everyone, keeping the team focused and honest.

I used to doodle in every tedious meeting I was dragged into early in my career. Little did I know that I was actually focusing my energy into the conversation and learning!

To really keep up with the competition, build a stronger team, grow professionally, tackle market shifts and just keep sane day to day, accept today’s reality, continue to learn, and embrace change. These small steps will kick off 2019 strong and help set a solid path for growth personally and professionally.

I’ve only just skimmed the top of the great advice! Please check out the full discussions in the video replay here or the podcast. The knowledge shared during the three interviews is invaluable! Tune in every week for DisrupTV on Fridays 11 AM PT/2 PM ET. Continuous learning is the best path to instill change.

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