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Vidyo-Google Announcement of VP9 SVC for WebRTC: Why It's Important

Vidyo-Google Announcement of VP9 SVC for WebRTC: Why It's Important

*Originally published on NoJitter.com

Vidyo is positioned to see tremendous benefit from a revenue and deployment perspective as WebRTC clients proliferate using VP9 SVC

Google and Vidyo jointly announced an agreement in which "Vidyo will develop a scalable video extension for the VP9 codec as part of the WebRTC client open source project". What does this really mean, and what will be the impact for both WebRTC and Vidyo?

This article will explore the implications of the announcement, but first will offer some background on the technology.

A Short Discussion of Video Encoding
Digital video must be compressed, using a video codec, so that it can be transmitted efficiently over a network. Although many video codecs exist, the most prevalent in the enterprise video conferencing industry today are H.263 and the newer H.264. Another codec, VP8, is the video codec currently available in the WebRTC implementations available via Google Chrome and Mozilla Firefox browsers. Google is currently working on the next iteration of its VP codec, VP9.

The H.264 codecs allow video to be compressed into bit rates that are half or less of the H.263 bit rates, for equivalent video quality. H.264 "AVC" or baseline profile codecs have been available since they were approved by the ITU in May 2003, and several clarifications or enhancements have been added since then.

One of the most significant enhancements, approved in November 2007, was H.264 Scalable Video Coding (H.264 Annex G). SVC leverages the same encoding techniques but allows the encoding engine to split the video into a base layer, called AVC, and several enhancement layers or streams. These enhancement layers can represent spatial resolution (screen size), temporal resolution (frame rate) or video image quality. Vidyo was the company that really brought H.264 SVC into the video conferencing world through its line of SVC-enabled Vidyo endpoints and infrastructure.

It is this additive capability of SVC layers that makes this encoding technique so compelling, because it eliminates the need for video transcoding and bridging devices. Even if some layers of the full video stream are removed, the resulting sub-layers form a valid video bit stream for target endpoints supporting lower quality . For example, a mobile phone, with a small screen, requires a much smaller amount of video information in order to show a high quality image on its small display; consequently, it does not need or use all of the SVC layers a telepresence system would require. Contrast this to a non-SVC call in which a transcoding video bridge would be required to connect systems with different resolutions to the same call.

Figure 1. H.264 SVC Introduces Temporal, Spatial and Quality Video Layers

It is the responsibility of the SVC-compliant endpoints to signal the capabilities they have to other endpoints and to any infrastructure participating in the call. Note that SVC does not use less bandwidth than AVC; it may actually increase bandwidth by 10% to 15% compared with AVC. But the tradeoff is worth it because the video infrastructure should in principle be less expensive.

SVC-encoded video performs better over networks with significant packet loss or with less available bandwidth; this is because it sends only those video layers that can make it through the network and which are then used in the decoding process to reconstruct the video image at a lower frame rate or possibly a lower image size or even at a lower video quality. H.264 AVC and H.264 SVC both require about half the bandwidth of the older H.263 codec, and it is anticipated that H.265 and VP9 will require about half of the bandwidth of their predecessors.

Compressing video using newer video codecs usually requires more CPU processing than does compressing a codec's earlier versions. Consequently, care must be taken when deploying a new version of a codec, because one must assure that the devices on which this video is to be compressed have enough processing power.

Not all SVC encoders are created equal. The standard really defines how to decode video, not encode it. So video encoders from different vendors will support varying video quality and bandwidth efficiencies. In principle, all encoders encoding the same video standard should at least interoperate at the base layer. The reality is that implementations from different vendors may not interoperate, even for the base layer, and SVC implementations certainly do not interoperate. In addition, some incompatibilities even for the same codec (H.264, for example) may arise due to proprietary signaling a vendor may choose to use.

Figure 2 below shows the video compression codecs used by major desktop video conferencing vendors.

Figure 2. Video Compression Codecs Used in Several Desktop Video Solutions


* Note that Lync 2013 does not support H.263. Lync 2010 does support H.264. Also see http://social.technet.microsoft.com/Forums/en-US/ocscapacityplanning/thread/8bb71480-64d8-47f3-b639-0f4b7d3320ff for more details on the Microsoft codecs.
** The Vidyo endpoints do not support H.263 nor H.264 AVC natively. A gateway is required to connect with these endpoints. Vidyo asked that H.263 and H.264 be placed in this list so that readers would not be misled into thinking that Vidyo does not support these older codecs at all.

A Short Discussion of Multipoint Video
The first question many video users ask after experiencing a point-to-point video call is how to have a video meeting with three or more people. There are basically two mechanisms for enabling multiparty video, depending upon which codecs and bridging hardware are being used: a Multipoint Control Unit (MCU) or a video media relay server.

Traditional MCUs
If multiple endpoints in a call are using single-layer codecs like H.264 AVC or H.263 (or earlier codecs), then an MCU is required for audio and/or video bridging. (This assumes continuous presence, i.e., video from multiple video endpoints viewable simultaneously on the same screen, sometimes called "Hollywood Squares" video). Each video endpoint enters into a point-to-point call with the MCU. The MCU receives video feeds from all endpoints and mixes both the audio streams and the video streams and then sends a single audio and a single video stream back to each endpoint.

In order to do this mixing, the MCU must first decode the audio and video streams. It then combines or mixes the audio, often mixing only two or three of the audio inputs with the most amplitude. Simultaneously, the MCU takes those images corresponding to the loudest audio inputs and puts them together in a smaller single image. It then re-encodes the audio and video, and returns these streams to the individual endpoints. (There is more processing than is described here; for example, there has to be some subtraction when mixing audio so that a speaker's own audio is not returned. However, for the purposes of this paper, the description here will suffice.).

Figure 3. How A Traditional MCU Mixes Video

MCUs exist as software running on a server or as dedicated hardware with Digital Signal Processing (DSP) chips. Large enterprises typically use hardware-based MCUs for performance reasons. By the nature of the processes involved, MCUs add some latency (typically less than 200 milliseconds) to a multipoint video conference. In addition to doing the processing necessary to create a composite video image, the MCU must have "jitter" buffers to reassemble packets that arrive out of order, a common occurrence on many networks. Also, because there are multiple encode/decode cycles, the video quality will slightly degrade.

Media Relay Servers for SVC
SVC codecs and the endpoints that support SVC have enabled a different way to provide multipoint video. These endpoints are able to encode and decode multiple streams simultaneously. An SVC multipoint video solution is controlled by a media relay server that determines which layers are sent to each connected endpoint. At least one H.264 SVC solution, that from Vidyo, also requires the media server even in point-to-point calls between Vidyo's H.264 SVC endpoints. In any case, as discussed above, each endpoint receives only those SVC layers it can properly decode based on an endpoint's screen size, processing power and the dynamically computed available bandwidth connecting the endpoint to the video router.

In an SVC solution, no video is mixed or transcoded (assuming all endpoints are SVC; if there is a mix of SVC and non-SVC endpoints, some mixing will still be required). For SVC endpoints, the media relay server replicates and routes video streams for each participant to the other endpoints without mixing. The SVC-compliant endpoint simultaneously decodes these multiple video streams, each with their own layers, and displays a multipoint image properly on its corresponding screen.

Because SVC media relay servers do not encode or decode the video, the video quality will be higher than when a MCU is used. In addition, routing video packets adds less latency than does a MCU (typically less than 10-20 milliseconds).

Figure 4. SVC Video Call: Media Relay Server Replicates and Routes Video Packets, Mixing Only The Audio

The Implication of Using SVC for WebRTC
One of the complaints about WebRTC video is that it requires a lot of bandwidth--typically between 300 kbps and 2 Mbps--and that there are few options available to control that bandwidth. Creating the new VP9 SVC codec will reduce bandwidth in two ways:

1. VP9 will be able to more efficiently compress the video, and may give equivalent image quality at half the bandwidth. This is a huge benefit to VP9 in WebRTC.

2. Using SVC technology will allow WebRTC developers to provide excellent video quality even on low bandwidth networks or networks with significant packet loss. The proof that it works is seeing the current Vidyo H.264 SVC implementation working on mobile devices like Android phones, iPhones, and iPads over Wi-Fi connections.

The current WebRTC deployment using VP8 does not scale particularly well beyond a small number of endpoints in a call, because each endpoint must make a direct connection with every other endpoint. There are some companies that either have or who are working on WebRTC MCUs so that the MCU infrastructure will mediate the need for so many video streams and so much bandwidth and processing power required of each endpoint in a multiparty video call.

With WebRTC VP9 SVC, point-to-point calls will work just fine. But multipoint calls will need a media router. It is the media router that will be able to provide the fine controls for routing video packets. Using the VP9 SVC codec, each endpoint encodes at the highest quality that it is capable of producing. The media server determines what packets to send to all the other participants based upon what resolution they want to display for each participant, balanced with the available bandwidth and computational power of the device. A website serving up WebRTC will be able to become the media router, or this function can be disaggregated to a specialized server that only does media routing.

The bottom line is that WebRTC based on VP9 SVC will require much less bandwidth than WebRTC based on VP8 does. Just as H.265 compared to H.264 will require more processing power, VP9 as compared to VP8 will likely require more processing power as well. Should mobile chipset manufacturers include VP9 SVC in their future chip designs, then mobile devices will be able to support VP9 SVC just as easily as they do H.264 SVC today.

The Implication of VP9 SVC for Vidyo
Vidyo as a company has had remarkable success providing video communications technology to end user companies and to OEM manufacturers who have incorporated Vidyo's video capabilities within their own products. Vidyo will provide the WebRTC browser endpoint SVC technology through Google to the WebRTC open source product; however, the "secret sauce" of controlling the video effectively remains highly valuable Vidyo proprietary technology. If WebRTC ultimately includes VP9 SVC as enabled by Vidyo's technology, then every web server that uses WebRTC potentially becomes a customer for Vidyo's media routing engine.

As Vidyo stated in a recent interview: "Application developers may create their own SVC media routers from scratch, or they can use ours. Nothing prevents them from using the WebRTC VP9 SVC capabilities." However, Vidyo has 38 patents issued for optimizing control and routing video, with more on the way, which are largely not part of the WebRTC project. The company is positioned to see tremendous benefit from a revenue and deployment perspective as WebRTC clients proliferate using VP9 SVC.

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VM World 2013 – a business assessment

VM World 2013 – a business assessment

Holger Mueller, discusses VM Ware's biggest challenges with Dennis Howlett. Filmed at VM World 2013.

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Video Customer Support Gains Traction

Video Customer Support Gains Traction

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Whether or not you like being on camera, expect that you will be in the future when contacting your customer service organization.  Video has had relative limited usage for customer support but as costs decrease, many view video as a more natural way to engage with others and share information.  The former stumbling blocks of video, such as difficulties with setup and support, non-friendly user interface and struggles with publishing content have been reduced through technical advances and cloud services. Also, as Web Real-Time Communications (WebRTC) becomes more widespread, video sessions will become even simpler to deploy. 

The rapid rise in smart phones has more consumers interested in using video and receiving information through video channels. Video customer support includes live video chat with agents and video live streaming. Additionally, many consumers regularly use their smartphones and tablets for video conversations with friends over popular social media channels, such as Facebook, YouTube or Skype. This trend for video conversations and video viewing over social networks has set an expectation by consumers to receive more video content and engage in conversations with brands for both sales and service.

Brands spend much time and money trying to gain a competitive edge for their products and services.  Providing video as a customer support channel provides a way to differentiate customer service and deliver quality support.  Video for customer support enables faster delivery of content and information. Customers can absorb information more rapidly in a video clip than by reading information. This enables support organizations to spend less “live” talk time when streaming relevant video information to customers. However, it is important for the video to be succinct and not contain extraneous marketing comments. Video also adds an additional element of personalization, while also sending a message that the brand really cares about them

Video clips also get the job done faster than live conversations.  Savvy customers often go to online communities to troubleshoot an issue.  Short videos of customers who have solved the same problem provide credible insight and encourage customers to resolve problems. This works particularly well for explaining “how to” issues on products recently purchased.  It can also be used to answer repetitive questions that require several minutes of an agent’s time to resolve.  When a video clip is made describing how to fix a common issue, agents can forward the video clip to the caller’s smartphone and significantly reduce time for repeat questions.

I expect a sharp rise in video for customer support during the next few years as brands find that it adds an extra dimension to customer support and can also reduce agent talk time, which remains highest expense for customer support. 

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Digital is Getting More Fragmented Not Less

Digital is Getting More Fragmented Not Less

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There was a time when the only “digital” device in your home was likely to be an alarm clock.

These days, we live with a range of internet connected devices from refrigerators to lightbulbs, and CCTV systems to VOIP phones. And that’s before we start counting computers, laptops, tablets and smartphones. When network security firm Sophos surveyed gadget users around the world in March 2013, respondents indicated that they carried an average of 2.9 devices with them. Smartphones and laptops were the most popular, with eReaders rounding out the list at 29%.

averageDevices

But these days, “digital” isn’t just about hardware. In fact, it’s not even about software. It’s about BEHAVIOUR.

When we think of digital we are thinking of modes of production and consumption – what we create and what we consume. And since the explosion of the social web, we have seen a massive fragmentation of what can be described (for want of a better word) as “digital channels”. In the early days of the web, the only digital channel you had was email. And then the world wide web came along and began to nip away at the edge of our digital experiences. It promised much but seldom delivered.

When Brian Solis introduced the Conversation Prism in 2008, our digital experience had grown to embrace the fledgling social media platforms like Flickr, LinkedIn, kyte, Zooomr and Facebook. Along for the ride was Ning, Pownce, eventful, WordPress and Twitter (amongst others). Of course, not all survived, but they paved the way for many who followed. And vitally they transformed our digital behaviour, our online body language and set our expectations for online experiences.

Conversation-Prism-2013-XLarge

The latest version of the Conversation Prism has now been released. And you can see that consumers are presented with a vast array of options for both production and consumption of content. There are many more ways to engage online – more platforms, more approaches and more niches. And with each of these comes rules, regulations, terms of service, user etiquette and community cultures. It can be a minefield for users and a battleground for inexperienced marketers. This presents marketers with serious challenges:

  • Strategy is execution: We have to make our peace and realise that the pace of change is never going to slow. We must now view strategy as execution – something that happens in real time with real customers. We need to work with a continuous digital strategy to not only survive but vitally, to remain relevant.
  • Digital skills must be prioritised: This is not to say that traditional marketing skills no longer have a role. Far from it. But digital will continue to grow in prominence. If you have not begun to refresh your skills, start now. Check out cheap and low cost online courses from Coursera, Skillshare and Udemy. For those in Sydney, Vibewire also runs regular skills based workshops that are tremendous value. Also check out what is on offer from ADMA.
  • Automation for marketing at scale: The dream of one-to-one marketing is upon us – but comes with discipline, requires strategic planning and technology investment. Identify those repetitive marketing tasks and investigate the marketing automation solution that is right for you and your business. You’ll be amazed at the revenue impact.

So before you go wading into the sea of digital channels, be sure you’ve got your floaties on – and don’t be afraid to ask for help.

 

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Microsoft gets even more serious about devices - acquires Nokia smartphone business

Microsoft gets even more serious about devices - acquires Nokia smartphone business

After a long weekend due to labor day, Microsoft and Nokia hit the press with the intention to acquire Nokia's smartphone business and licenses by Microsoft. Which was a rumor many times in the past - but nonetheless a surprise that it (still) came through now (at last).

A surprise - or not?

There have been numerous rumors before, that Microsoft would buy a smartphone maker, and those rumors were often around Nokia, HTC and Blackberry. So now the rumors have come to an end - with the new Microsoft & Nokia combination. 

At the end of the day Microsoft needed to correct its weak position in the smartphone space - after all it competes with Apple and even more with Google - who either have an integrated device business - organically built or bought from Motorola. Understandable that the decision makers in Redmond did think that they could not compete. 

What does Microsoft get?

Microsoft gets Nokia's smartphone business, Steven Elop and some executives and licenses key patents for 10 years and will license also the mapping and location services of the HERE division of Nokia for the next 4 years. .

Nokia - a shadow of itself

The once darling and clear mobile phone market leader - only 10 years ago - and a true smartphone pioneer - is only a shadow if itself now. I remember using the Nokia Communicator and the shock and awe its fax capability had back then - amongst many other then cutting edge features. 

Nokia now is merely three divisions with NSN (network infrastructure), HERE (maps and location services) and Advanced Technologies (development and licensing). Some of my contacts in the intellectual property circles already started to call the new Nokia a potential patent troll - we all should hope it will not come to that. 

Organizational Implications

With Elop talking over the devices and bringing its team over from Nokia - it questions the role of Larson-Green who will report to Elop and was one of the rising stars of Microsoft executives, even a potential Ballmer replacement. We do not expect that Larson-Green will play a diminished role for long, the question is only will it be at Microsoft or at another company.

And Ballmer's email to employees also described the alignment of the Nokia marketing, support, etc functions with the new organizational model, meaning they will be moved to the respective functional leaders. Something we see critical - see our view on the CEO succession here

Devices - no matter what

One has to admire (to a certain point) the guts of the decision makers in Redmond. Despite record write down on inventory of the ill fated Surface tablet - they seem not to have enough of the device business. The belief of these decision makers must be that to succeed in the device space, Microsoft needs to have very tight control over software and device. 

Microsoft had that with the Surface and did not / has not succeeded there. Now it will be more of the same - the question is - what will be the secret ingredient to make the device strategy a success now?

Was there friction?

The easiest explanation for the intended acquisition would be, if there was still some sort of friction between Microsoft and Nokia. That this wasn't personal is shown that the Nokia executive team, that was involved with smartphones, is moving over to Microsoft. 

A potential reason could be that the architects of this acquisition know, that Nokia was not funded well enough to make a difference in the market place (aka marketing spend). That's an argument one could buy in.

The other possibility is, that the lines of communication between software in Redmond and hardware controlled in Espoo where too long and not effective. If this is the case the acquisition also makes sense - but will be a point of concern to the other Windows Mobile partners like HTC etc. Needless to say Microsoft has already addressed these concerns and its also clear that Windows Mobile will only become a success in the market place if - at least for the next 2-3 years - there is a successful multi vendor strategy.

MyPOV

The merger of two weak players does not make a strong one. But it certainly gives Microsoft more direct control and the chance to invest at will into the smartphone business. The appetite for more device business and exposure is baffling - it was never Microsoft's strategy, the company has become market leader with the help of partners and the recent issues of the Surface tablet would not have encouraged many boards to do more device business and risk more of the same. You certainly cannot proclaim a lack of guts by the Microsoft board. 

The next quarters will tell what held Nokia back - was it Nokia - or was it Microsoft. Exciting times. 

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Are You Ready to Race to the Future?

Are You Ready to Race to the Future?

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Palm Zire - Hotsync no more!Do you remember the Palm Pilot? Billed as a “PDA” – a personal digital assistant, it was a phone with an address book, could read your writing and translate it into text and it could even do basic emailing if you worked it hard enough. In many ways it was ahead of its time.

Since that time I have had all kinds of phones – from functional mobile phones to various BlackBerry devices and iPhones. And each device has been a marked improvement on its predecessor. These devices are not just add-ons to the way we live anymore – they are part and parcel of our lives. And when we leave them behind, lose them or find ourselves out of coverage, it’s as though we have lost a limb. A really useful, vital limb.

But the most amazing thing about these devices is not the technology. It’s the changes in behaviour that have seeped into our lives driven by the technology. Think about it:

When we discover a new place for a weekend away, we …

We don’t just absorb the ambience, take a moment to write a letter or postcard to send to family and friends and open a celebratory bottle of sparkling. We check-in or claim the space on Foursquare and Facebook. We take a photo of the view, capture the latitude and longitude on our GPS and share the image via Instagram. That then gets pushed to Twitter. We make an update via social networks, take another snap of that cold glass of sparkling wine and let our friends know that we wish they were with us. Then we wait for responses – Likes, tips from other friends who have checked-in nearby and suggestions for delicious nearby takeaway. Meanwhile the sun sets (more photos, skyburn this time, you know you love it), another glass is poured and we feel warm knowing that even when we’re on the edge of civilisation that we are still connected. Sometimes, shock horror, the wifi drops out causing a moment of anguish (hashtag #firstworldproblems). But a quick router reset puts the world to right.

The thing is, that we are not only always-connected, it is almost a precondition for pleasure. Our personal compass has become gamified, socialised and part of a connected, data-driven personal empire. It’s like slide night at Aunty Pat’s – just on a grand scale. The question is how far can you go? How close can we get to the edge of a digital network. And if we step beyond, is our authentic experience real if it is not reported?

We race ever faster towards the future, but are we prepared for it? Have we thought our participation through – from an environmental, economic and ethical point of view? Have we considered the energy required to power this lifestyle? And what education do we need and what should be delivered to the coming generations? And what role does entrepreneurship play?

These “Six Es” form the theme of the Creative Innovation 2013 Asia Pacific conference. Held in Melbourne, 27-29 November, it features over 40 global leaders, innovators and thinkers. It’s your chance to join big and small business, entrepreneurs, educators, creative and government leaders,
emerging talent and leading thinkers from around the World, Asia and Australia.

Book any early bird tickets for Ci2013 before 15 September and save up to $615. And be sure to use the code E6 to secure a further 10% discount.

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VMware defies conventional destiny - SDDC to the rescue

VMware defies conventional destiny - SDDC to the rescue

Attending VMWare's VMWorld conference this week in San Francisco was an interesting experience - we got to witness a lively ecosystem, a company with a strategy and really passionate - if not even cultishly loyal - user base. But where there is light there is also shadow - and we will describe both in this post.



Monday takeaways

VMWorld kicked off with the usual CEO keynote and Pat Gelsinger did a good job walking through the status and upcoming plans, in one of the most methodological and structured keynotes I have ever seen. Guess the chip engineer background does make a contribution to presentation style here.

Not surprisingly VMware keeps forging ahead with its server virtualization work - making vSphere 5.5 generally available in Q3 2013 - which amongst many other features - gives customers a better handle to deploy Hadoop atop of VMware (courtesy of project Serengeti). And not surprisingly the support for enterprise applications has been increased -  SAP and Oracle in the forefront - with a doubling of logical cores to 320, supported memory to 4 TB and a 50% increase in virtual CPUs to 3096. This will allow customer to move even  more ambitions payloads to be virtualization.

So far so good - steady state on constant improvement - the main thrust of VMware's R&D though will go into the creation of the Software defined data Center (SDDC) - by itself not too much of a surprise - given the Nicira acquisition and the need for a compelling overall data center strategy. And this of course triggers more complex and extensive management needs - as much more than the conventional server load is being virtualized. The new products are VMware NSX and VMware Virtual SAN, the former is expected to be GA in Q4 2013, the latter go to public beta in Q3 2013.  

Noticeable - especially in comparison to last year - was the absence of the so called end user products which had prominent keynote time last year. It looks to me as if VMware may have tried to buy time here - or realized the VMWorld audience is not the decision maker for this product category.

In contrary to end user products - Gelsinger / VMware did talk about hybrid cloud, brought Bill Fathers on stage - and Bill talked about the data center plans - which are now going to be 5 in North America (2 existing and one planned by VMware, and 2 in partnership - surprise, surprise -  with Savvis). Moreover VMware offers a connect service with a product called Direct Connect - the enablement on top is for disaster recovery and desktop as a service (DAAS). A good start - but much more is needed.  

And last but not least VMware re-iterated it's commitment to Pivotal and Cloud Foundry, both companies will work to deliver a commercially supported Pivotal CF PaaS - that can run both on vSphere and vCloud hybrid service. 

Feel free to check out the Storify tweet collection on the keynote here



Analyst & Press meeting takeaways

This turned out the be one of the better press and analyst meetings out there, with plenty of time for presentation and questions to all the key executives of VMware, kudos to the AR team. 

My key takeaways amongst a lot of good learning and information were



  • It was good to hear from VMware's strategist Shekar Ayyar that the investment is flowing into the three priorities of SDDC, hybrid cloud and end user computing. Overall VMware sees an addressable market of US$ 50B in 2016. 
  • The strong dependence of VMware on partners is both an opportunity and a challenge - lower sales costs, but the ecosystem needs to be treated well - and it apparently feels treated well. 
  • The relationship of VMware with OpenStack seems to get more and better clarified, with Raghu Raghuram clarifying interfacing strategies on a number of layers between the two offerings.
  • When I asked Bill Fathers on one of the strongest VMware hybrid cloud sales arguments - that VMware knows the loads in the private cloud better than anyone - and that they should therefore become the adviser on what loads to move to the public cloud when - I got a lot of agreement, but that this - for now - is a professional services opportunity only.  
  • The future of Socialcast remains in question - but Sanjay Poonen eased concerns here - but VMware still needs to flesh out more. To be fair - it was Poonen's 6th day with VMware and for that he did a formidable job.  
  • And finally I had the chance to ask Pat Gelsinger where he sees the growth for the likely reduction in compute virtualization revenue (no pushback here!) - and the answer was that in the short term it will be management, NSX and end user computing, then storage and then hybrid cloud. 
  • Lastly I found all VMware executives remarkably friendly, open and almost eager to answer even critical questions - not all analyst meetings are like that, other vendors take note.
Feel free to check out the Storify tweet collection on the keynote here
 

Tuesday Takeaways

The mornings keynote was different than in previous years - when it used to take a product and show me the features approach. So this year VMware tried to pitch new products in the real world scenario of the IT side pitching SDDC to the end user (ironically being played by Carl Eschenbach, VMWare's COO). Personally I liked the idea and execution very much - but was surprised that most of the audience did not - which reminded me that most of the audience lives and breathes very close to the compute virtualization. Not much pitching of a business case needed here - it's known and it's been done. 
 
Not surprisingly the press spin machine slowed down - with only three press releases - one on the Horizon product side that can now deploy desktops to vcloud hybrid service, partners can offer desktop as a service and there is extended smartphone support with new VMware ready smartphones. 
 
Buried in the VMware Cloud Management press release was the little fact that this product was the strongest growing product area of VMware - not surprising - but a good and key datapoint. 
 
And lastly a VMware and Cisco joined customer success press release - well not a surprise here again. 
 

There is money in virtualization

Nothing validates the ecosystem better than a visit of the showfloor. And with VMworld being in Moscone - the comparisons to other shows that take place there - like OpenWorld, Dreamforce, Build etc is easy. 
 
So what I am looking for are usually two things - interest by the attendance and marketing spend by the exhibitors... needless to say that the attendees were all over the place, but even more surprising was the marketing spend, that was way north of what you see even at much larger events like OpenWorld and Dreamforce. 
 
Usually I look at the ridgeline of the booths - and you usually see a Matterhorn like profile - with the organizer's booths being at the center. VMWorld however, had an Ayers Rock like profile - with a lot of multi storey booths reaching out far to the edges of Moscone East and only one row each on either side of the exhibition floor of poor man booths. 
 
Equally interesting - apart from the hypervisor competitors - everybody was there - the hardware vendors, the networking vendors, the data center management vendors, and the software vendors in the ecosystem. Yes, there is a lot of money in virtualization. 
 

Reality Check

As analysts we sometimes need to be careful not to live to much in the bubble that is created by Silicon Valley and by the constant briefings with cutting edge content by vendors. Many fellow analysts were wondering why to even attend VMWorld... as the VMware compute hypervisor revenue stream gets commoditized - and the move to public cloud would end VMware's stronghold on the corporate data center. 
 
But chatting informally with attendees, mostly while waiting in the queues catching a bus, pick a table at the attendee lunches, chat with them at appreciation events, poll the after seeing a demo on the show floor...  gives a sense for what is real in the customer base. And to my surprise from the over two dozen companies I spoke with - none had concrete plans to move to public cloud. Didn't even have applications running in the public cloud. The most I got was a beta of Office 365... 
 
And at the risk of running into a self fulfilling prophecy here - of course the VMWorld attendees are there, because they do have a significant compute load in their data center. But I was honestly surprised that there was so little public cloud reality at these randomly polled enterprises.
 

VMware's opportunities

As previously stated, VMware may have more time for the transformation than previously expected. But the main asset I see for VMware is, that the company has the deepest understanding of how onsite compute resources are used. It really comes back to that knowledge and finding a way to productize this going forward - in connection with the threat the public cloud poses for the company. 
 
More down the road - if VMware's gamble on SDDC starts to pay off - which is a potentially big IF - it has the opportunity to really build differentiating end user computing scenarios - think of e.g. secure social networking, the machine to social relationship, the hybrid cloud load balancing etc.
 
The other good news is, that VMware has a very loyal user base - I have not seen such a loyal and positive user base at a user conference since a long, long time. Sapphire conferences in the  middle 90ies maybe. 
 

VMware's challenges

Based on this, there maybe much more future on running hypervisors for compute in the corporate data center than previously expected. VMware's challenge is the pressure on these revenue streams. The good news is that the executive team is aware of these, acknowledges them and has now a bold strategy in place to move the corporate data center to the software defined data center. 
 
But to achieve this the company needs to master an aggressive product development agenda, mastering not only networking, but also storage virtualization. But ultimately the question will not be if VMware can deliver, but if VMware can deliver enough critical functionality in time to be a relevant player and keep off larger competitors like e.g. Cisco and Juniper for the networking virtualization. The acquired assets of Nicira help a lot here - but there is more work to do. 
 
Finally VMware needs to change the way it goes to market. Great to have a cultishly loyal user base and a very successful channel - but both will not win the battle for the SDDC. The user base is to far removed from the CxO level decision making about SDDC and the channel will have different options to play this game. And VMware's competitors have larger direct sales forces with entrenched relationships to the CIO. 
 

MyPOV

A very interesting VMWorld where VMware laid down an ambitions strategy to get the control of the SDDC. The company will have to change the way it sells to succeed with that strategy, which may change this show going forward - less geeks and more suites. Interesting marketing challenge. 
 
And it looks like VMware days are less counted than I thought, the threat of customer moving load to the public cloud is much less imminent than I suspected. So it will be less the the port to the public cloud, than the replacement of on premaise loads by cloud loads through a vendor switch, like ridding itself of an on premise CRM system and switching to salesforce.com, which poses a challenge to the VMware market. 
 
Finally a very ambitions product development agenda, but you can't fault VMware for that - and it's too early to call the state of progress on that. In the meantime the company deserves credit for going for it. We will have to check in approximately 6 months from now on progress of these plans. 
 
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A Cup of Chaos #80: Dino Prank

A Cup of Chaos #80: Dino Prank

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I have not done a cup of chaos on a Friday for sometime … but this just seemed too delicious to ignore.



raptorial elegance #2 Jes via Compfight

 

Marketing Transformation Chief Marketing Officer

Miley Cyrus, Syria's Chemical Weapons, and the Business of News

Miley Cyrus, Syria's Chemical Weapons, and the Business of News

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Let's use CNN, the self-proclaimed "Worldwide Leader in News" as a case study. The back-to-back headlines this week were: The imminent call to war on Syria by the U.S. and its allied nations; Miley Cyrus's VMA performance; and the 50th anniversary of Dr. Martin Luther King's epic "I Have a Dream" speech.

What's wrong with this picture?

In every hour's news loop, CNN chose to provide "expert" and detailed analysis of Miley Cyrus's VMA debacle: What did it mean? What was her motivation? What's the effect of the performance on the nation? CNN producers, in all their wisdom, deployed correspondent Jeanne Moos to pound the pavement to gauge the public's opinion on her performance. They equipped her with a foam finger, reminiscent of the finger used by Ms. Cyrus in her now famous performance with instructions to point it up for support or down for detractors. Serious journalism here.

You'd almost expect CNN's Anderson Cooper 360 to cover the story (even if it wasn't part of his "Ridiculist" segment), but to see Wolf Blitzer follow up sobering videos of Syrian citizens doused in chemical gasses with a gyrating Miley Cyrus, well, it's just plain wrong. Or is it?

On Tuesday, Piers Morgan opened his show with an in-depth panel discussion on the growing possibility of a war between Syria and the U.S. that included an intelligent debate about the legal justification for such action. That was followed up by an interview with Lora DiMaggio, the sister of James DiMaggio who made headlines during a nation-wide manhunt after kidnapping Hannah Anderson and (allegedly) killing her mother and brother.

Of course, the most logical follow up to this was the segment: "The History of Twerking" in which Mr. Morgan slammed those giving Cyrus credit for the "twerking" dance move. He vehemently argued that he's been seeing this dance performed in Caribbean nightclubs for the past 25 years. Yes, Piers Morgan is an expert in twerking. He concluded his arguments with the line: "I would not lie about something this important."

And speaking of experts, during the show Mr. Morgan chose to interview Morgan Spurlock, director of a documentary about U.K. boy band One Direction, asking about his views on Miley Cyrus and the marketing of celebrity. Then, naturally, he turned to Mr. Spurlock for his opinions on the crisis in Syria which resulted in the documentary film maker offering his recommendations to the U.S. government on exactly how to approach this situation. Granted, Mr. Spurlock has also made documentaries on Osama Bin Landen, which allowed him to travel extensively throughout the region, yet having a documentary film maker who just provided pop culture analysis also provide foreign policy advice does nothing but detract from the integrity of the news being broadcast.

We're Not In Kansas Anymore

Have we been sucked up by a cyclone and transported to some far-off mystical land where the salacious performance of a 20-year-old pop star receives equal attention by the news media and takes up equal space in the national consciousness when many western nations are about to send their men and women to war in a rapidly destabilizing part of the world?

How can Miley Cyrus be added to the news rotation alongside Syria's use of chemical weapons and the anniversary of Dr. Martin Luther King's historic "I have a dream" speech?

What I've had to re-learn this week, sadly, is that cable and network news is an entertainment business, not a public service -- with an emphasis on "business." Journalistic integrity is being supplanted with ratings and advertising revenues. News is really just about what sells, not what information is important to report. Like it or not, Miley Cyrus's performance is what people want to talk about. Don't believe it? Consider the fact that there were 306,000 tweets per minute sent on Twitter about the performance immediately preceding the airing and the social networks have been ablaze ever since.

Welcome to the social era. The only filter "news" agencies use today is entertainment and ratings. Watch -- and be informed -- at your own risk.

CORRECTION: This post previously stated that CNN's chief political correspondent Candy Crowley reported the reaction story about Miley Cyrus.

Marketing Transformation Innovation & Product-led Growth Chief Marketing Officer

Why Social Media Has Failed the Federal Election

Why Social Media Has Failed the Federal Election

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In the last federal election, social media showed its potential to engage and influence the voting public. We saw some tentative steps into the world of social media – some tweets, Facebook updates and the occasional blog post. And the public – largely ignored in terms of digital citizenry – leapt at the opportunity to not just join the conversation – but enter the debate.

Over time the the #auspol hashtag has become a hot bed of debate, opinion and – in the best tradition of Twitter – trolling. Over the last month alone, the #auspol hashtag has averaged around 20,000 tweets per day from an Australian Twitter population of only 2.1 million. This would indicate a level of intensity worthy of attention – especially given that the next Australian government is likely to be determined not by a popular or even representative vote – but by voters in a handful of marginal electorates.

auspol-tag

In the USA, the Obama campaign set a new standard for the effective use of social media. But while the Obama campaign, with its massive successes, legions of data scientists and programmers, seemed to signal a new way forward for digital citizenry, local efforts have missed the mark, employing immature and simplistic strategies that have failed to either capture the imagination of the public nor engage them in public debate.

In many ways, the social media performance across the election has been almost as lacklustre as the campaigns for the top job itself. As with most failures, the failure of social media to ignite the election has many fathers. Here are a few:

  • Believing that social is like other media: We often say that social media is “conversational”, but this doesn’t stop even experienced marketers from using social media as a form of broadcast media. Take a look, for example, at the following to follower ratio of almost any politician. How many direct conversations take place on their timeline? How engaged are they in conversations that are started by their followers? And how often do they share content that doesn’t directly feature them or their cause? In believing that social is like other media, politicians and their strategists are leaving votes on the table and leaving undecided voters uncared for and unloved.
  • Prioritising celebrity over relevance: While Kevin Rudd has run a largely Presidential style campaign in the media, this is less effective on social media. By contrast, Tony Abbott has presided over a campaign that prioritises a team of stars. But neither of these approaches work online because they tell the story of the team or the leader while ignoring the story of the voter. When you prioritise the celebrity of your participants rather than lionising your constituents, then your digital campaign is bound to fail. (And to be honest, this is a double failure for politicians, because good politicians understand the power of a constituency better than anyone.)
  • Confusing reach with impact: Having a large number of followers does not necessarily translate to votes. Creating reach through social media is just buys you a seat at the table. It allows you to engage in one-on-one conversation at scale. But just as brands learned the hard way, there is very little value in a Like and limited value in an audience you choose not to engage. R “Ray” Wang’s Nine Cs of Engagement should be required reading for any digital strategist – but be warned – it’s an effective framework but it requires considerable creativity and effort to execute.
  • Creating content not context: Sharing links can be useful, but unlikely to generate action unless there’s an acknowledgement of WIIFM (what’s in it for me). Context, however, is vital to providing relevance. Without addressing the context in which politicians operate, they are ignored or deemed irrelevant. This accounts for the significant levels of voter disengagement across the electorate in this election and is reflected well beyond social media in the endless stream of polling and opinion.
  • Preaching to the converted over engaging the convertible: Take a quick look at the last few tweets of your favourite politician. Consider the tone of voice. What is the topic and the language used? Are they pitching to you like they want a job – or are they writing like you know what they are talking about? In short – do they engage you like you’ve made up your mind or not? Almost every social media update has a partisan undertone. There’s a hidden nod or wink that really, you are “one of us”. You are on the team. And all the polling currently indicates that most Australians are fed up with both teams. Social media represents a great opportunity for politicians to “get closer” to the public – yet its execution is pushing voters further away. They’re preaching to the converted rather than seizing the opportunity to engage those who may yet be converted.
  • Facts are boring, engagement is sexy: The emergence of “fact checking” sites and teams has drawn a great deal of attention from the mainstream media. But there has never really been a question around the importance of facts – the question has always revolved around “whose fact is correct” – or can be relied upon. And that comes down to TRUST. In social media, a key determinant of trust is not related to fact but to engagement. And given that the currency of social media is engagement (not the number of “facts” that can be spouted), a great opportunity has been squandered.
  • Data is just data without insight: Much has been made of the use of data science and analytics in the devising of strategy. But there is little evidence that the data is informing or driving the strategy or refining the tactics of the political campaigns. Now, I am a fan of data – but without insight and human analysis – what I call synthalitics – data is not only useless, it’s dangerous and can lead to wrong decisions and worse outcomes.

In many ways, social media had the potential to turn this election on its head. A deeper understanding of the nature of social could, dare I say it, swayed the outcome considerably.

imvotingliberal-topsy

One only has to consider the massive impact that has been achieved through the newsjacking of the @ImVotingLiberal account and hashtag. For an account that has only a few followers, the conversation and engagement has been astounding. Now, imagine if some of the politicians of all persuasions came up with campaigns that engaged voters in this style of creative exchange. Imagine how much more vital, relevant and dare I say FUN would this election have been?

Followup: It seems that the @imvotingliberal account has been suspended.

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