Monday's Musings: Davos 2026 - In A Spirt of Dialogue, Conversation Starters For Debate (Part 1)
Principal Analyst and Founder
Constellation Research
R “Ray” Wang is the CEO of Silicon Valley-based Constellation Research Inc. He co-hosts DisrupTV, a weekly enterprise tech and leadership webcast that averages 50,000 views per episode and blogs at www.raywang.org. His ground-breaking best-selling book on digital transformation, Disrupting Digital Business, was published by Harvard Business Review Press in 2015. Ray's new book about Digital Giants and the future of business, titled, Everybody Wants to Rule The World was released in July 2021. Wang is well-quoted and frequently interviewed by media outlets such as the Wall Street Journal, Fox Business, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, and Bloomberg.
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R “Ray” Wang (pronounced WAHNG) is the Founder, Chairman, and Principal Analyst of Silicon Valley-based Constellation Research Inc. He…...
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World Economic Forum's 2026 Theme Centers Around "A Spirit of Dialogue"
Another year, another Davos. With 3000 official and 5000 unofficial attendees at UnDavos and a host of amazing side events, the beginning of the year marks a rite of passage for the C-Suite. While convening high above the Swiss Alps, these global leaders will "talk" about the state of world affairs and economy, Many skeptics wonder if real dialogue will be had.
Good news - this year's World Economic Forum's 2026 Theme Centers Around "A Spirit of Dialogue". Per theme, official discussions are centered around five key global challenges:
- Cooperation in a contested world;
- Unlocking new sources of growth;
- Investing in people;
- Deploying innovation responsibly; and
- Building prosperity within planetary boundaries.
Taking a Constellation Research futurist point of view (POV), let's apply a PESTEL framework to these themes and provide some conversation starters for provocative points of view and the authentic dialogue much needed at Davos. We'll start with the first three (i.e. PES) and continue (TEL) in Part 2.
Politics
1. Can we fight the scourge of socialism and prove that capitalism is still the best system?
A recent survey by the Cato Institute and YouGov paints a troubling picture: 62 percent of Americans aged 18–29 say they hold a “favorable view” of socialism, and 34 percent say the same of communism. This is shocking given that communism is responsible for 100 million deaths worldwide and is rooted in socialism, the same philosophy that spawned both Mussolini’s fascism and Hitler’s National Socialism. To favor socialism is to flirt with tyranny.
The poll did not define “socialism.” So, it’s unclear whether the respondents view it in the historical way, where the state owns the means of production, or if they see socialism as a modern-day “mixed economy” with cradle-to-grave welfare, price controls, and “fairness” enforced by the state.
What can be done to educate younger generations on the dangers of a mixed economy which Ayn Rand and Ludwig Von Mises warned future generations about?
2. In 2026 and beyond, will countries and companies have to choose a side between China vs US?
As the United States and China intensify their competition on the political, economic, technology, and military scale it seems inevitable that the deepening rivalry creates a mutually exclusive relationship when strategic alignment with one power will come at the expense of deeper ties with the other. With the impact of Tariffs and the US "Donroe" doctrine in place, nation states must factor in the ripple effects in geopolitics.
While many nations and companies prefer not to choose, what can be done to navigate between security ties and economic relationships? Is strategic autonomy even an option with countries trying to reap benefits from both sides without any consequences from either great power notes a (Chatham House Sept 2025) article?
3. When will dollar dominance wane and will BRICS replace "king" dollar?
With over 90% of foreign exchange transactions using the dollar, the dollar remains king in international trade and is a core reserve currency. The dollars liquidity, convertibility, and stability has led to its dominance in global reserves. However the share has been falling with 71% in 2001 to about 58% in the past few years. BRICS have increased bilateral trade in local currencies with Russia and China using the yuan and India buying oil in rupees to bypass the US Dollar.
The IMF predicts that by 2028 the BRICS+ block will represent 38% of global GDP. In addition, India and China have been adding to their gold reserves as a way to diversify from the US Dollar. What factors will lead to BRICS dominance and dollar decline or will the dollar remain "King"?
Economics
1. What will be the economic costs and benefits in the Battle for AI dominance?
Constellation predicts over $6 trillion will be invested in AI Infrastructure by 2030 with annual budgets exceeding $1.5 trillion. The massive capital expenditures for chips, data centers, energy grids, water resources, and additional green house gas emissions will place a massive economic cost. The likely winner-takes-all scenarios for AI dominance favors tech giants with deep pockets and sovereign nations such as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). In KSA's case they will enter a metamorphical transition from energy dominance to compute dominance. With a widening AI gap between resource heavy nations and resource constrained nations, will the benefits outstrip the costs? Should one entity achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI) or Artificial SuperIntelligence (ASI) before another, what will the resulting economic impact mean for business models?
2. Can the West compete with China's energy advantage?
The average price of electricity is $0.25 kWh for Europe, $0.15 kWh for the US, and $.08 kWh for China. With a 2X to 3X advantage, China's rapidly moving to $0.04 kWh given the massive state backed investments in energy infrastructure from coal fired plants, to renewable energy. China added almost 400 GW of Solar and Wind in 2025, 10 new nuclear reactors with 60GW, and 80 GW of coal fired electric capacity. Furthermore, advancements in Ultra-High Voltage (UHV) technology (1000kV AC and ± 800kV DC) allows for minimal transmission losses of 1.5-3% per thousand kilometers. Given the faux pax in green initiatives of the West which have driven up costs, created inflation, and left countries helpless to economically compete, what will the West do to catch up?
3. Will today's banking system be relegated to the past with the growing black market trade on chain?
Many predict that global trade will leave publicly transparent financial systems for shadow markets built on the blockchain. Constellation sees the user facing layer of the crypto economy growing with the rise of stablecoins and tokenized assets. With over $250 billion in nmarket cap for Us dollar-pegged coins, the future is pretty clear. IN 2024, these US dollar-pegged coins moed $27.6 trillion in volume, which is more than Mastercard and Visa combined. What is the future of a value exchange and trading system no longer controlled and regulated by state actors and international regulators?
Societal
1. What will humanity's purpose be in an AI Age?
How will humanity's purpose evolve as AI advances? With AI and automation promising ambient to automated experiences, the nature of work the meaning of human existence is at a juxtaposition between a world pre AI and post AI. Will AI improve the human condition or will it worsen the human condition? What will AI advance that humans cannot and what will humans advance that AI can not?
Note: Catch the session Tuesday January 20th at 11:30 am to 1:30 pm Cognizant House Promenade 68. Register here.
2. How will population dynamics impact the future social order and create demographic divides?
The United Nations (UN) projects a peak global population around 10.3 billion in the 2080s, followed by a slight dip to 10.2 billion by 2100. In almost every projection, India will become the world's most populous country peaking in 2061 and then gradully declining while China's population will fall sharply by 2100. Africa will drive global growth with countries such as DRC, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Tanzania contributing to sharp rises in population The United States is expected to remain flat to very slow growth. By the mid 2030s, the number of 80+ will outnumber the number of infants. IN 2080, the number of people over the age of 65 will outnumber the children under 18.
Constellation expects gaps in social, economic, and population health outcomes between nations due to population dynamics such as varying birth/death rates, fertility trends, age structures (young versus old). As countries move from high birth rates to low ones, societal structures, social security systems, labor, and healthcare will face new constraints. For example, birth rates are 1.6 in Europe and North America while Sub-Saharan Africa has high birth rates in the 4.3 to 4.5. will require governments to invest more in healthcare, education, and housing infrastructure.
Will aging societies make the shift in resource allocation from housing, education and childcare to more healthcare, technology automation, and aging population infrastructure? Will rapidly growing younger populations be able to invest for the future? What will immigration policies look like in this new world order? Can countries with aging populations use humaniod robots to replace their labor force in time?
3. Will higher education continue as we know it?
Higher education faces a confluence of demise from declining undergraduate enrollment, shrinking student populations, rising costs, lack of public trust, and questions of value and ROI. The bifurcation between top-tier colleges and less elective colleges without a path to jobs will continue to widen. The demographic cliff is the most significant factor as credential inflation and skill gaps increase as rising tuition and a weakened job market shifts the future of episodical education to a future of life long learning.
Given the trillions of dollars of future investment in data centers, precision manufacturing, energy infrastructure, and construction, many believe skilled trades will outperform the investment in higher education,. With faster earnings, lower debt, greater job security, and wealth creation, demand for vocational training may create a fundamental shift in learning for the next few decades. Will higher education be the riskier bet in the future and skilled trades replace the "traditional" path to future financial and career success?
The Bottom Line: Are You Really Ready For Some Honest and Authentic Dialogue?
The public Davos panels and keynotes have often been an overscripted, highly sanitized, corporate communications by committee, public relations driven event. Meanwhile, the private meals and smaller group events have been the source of insightful conversations and relationship building. Maybe in 2026, we can flip th script and just cut to the chase and have real dialogue. Will you be that force for change?
Your POV
It's that time of year. Will the elites actually have something useful to say this year or will it be another year of muckety mucks pontificating about useless issues? Will America 250 change the dialog?
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