The 800lb supply chain gorilla continues to disrupt with payment services

pending

Guy Courtin was formerly Vice President and Principal Analyst at Constellation Research covering Matrix Commerce and how the Internet of Things drives the evolution of commerce.  Guy has over 15 years experience in the technology space and specifically in the supply chain space. Most recently he was the Vice President of Research at SCM World. Where he focused on the service providers that empowered supply chains. Prior to SCM World, Guy held numerous senior positions. He was responsible for product marketing at RSi, a retail supply chain solution provider. There managed RSi’s go to market strategy around their leading cloud based supply chain solutions. He also spear headed Progress Software’s supply chain group. Where he was responsible for driving revenue and market share as well…...

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Amazon announced today it was going to jump right into the deep end when it comes to physical, in-store payment systems. They have unveiled a mobile payment service for brick and mortar stores. Taking direct aim at other mobile POS systems – Square, Paypal as well as Google and Apple. From the reports, Amazon will look to undercut other mobile payment systems – taking 2.5% of transactions versus 2.7% for the likes of Square – to grow their market presence. They are giving merchants an introductory rate under 2% to build that beachhead (feels like a credit card invitation – 0% APR and then only a slight bump to 33%).

In the online world, Amazon already knows how to handle and secure credit cards. They are also well versed when it comes to mobile payments as their iOS and

Android apps’ success has demonstrated. The natural progression was to push into the brick and mortar space – where 90% of retail transactions live. In the near term I am not sure that Amazon will do more than offer a secondary maybe even tertiary option. Brick and mortar retailers could view the Amazon system as letting the fox into the hen house. It would be understandable if these brick and mortar players do not flock to embracing Amazon and their payment systems. But I am sure that the favorable financial set up will force a large number of players to give it some serious consideration. Whether or not Amazon is widely successful with this venture is secondary to what the eCommerce 800lb gorilla is doing with regards to their overall supply chain disruption.

A quick look at what Amazon has been doing to become the 800 lb gorilla in supply chain:

• Acquired Kiva Systems to add sophisticated robotics and automation to their massive distribution centers.
• Gobbled up the likes of fabric.com, CDNow, Zappos, Pets.com to constantly expand their ability to offer a wide array of inventory.
• Pushed out a tablet and now a mobile phone under the Fire umbrella. Both of which are really hand held sales terminals for Amazon to leverage.
• Started pushing last mile grocery delivery in certain markets with their AmazonFresh offering.
• Even leaking that they are thinking of delivering via drones.

This is in addition to their deep experience in the online retail world. Taken together and you have the 800 lb gorilla that is disrupting the supply chain jungle. Add to this the news of them pushing into the payment space and you see Amazon gaining access to POS data from brick and mortar, coupled with all the data they have on consumer online buying. Amazon is quickly aggregating vital data sources on how consumers buy, where demand is being generated and how it impacts the retail supply chain.

So now Amazon is dabbling in last mile logistics, continually working on more efficient warehouse management, putting portable POS systems in consumers’ hands and now putting POS systems in the retailers’ hands.

That 800lb gorilla might have added another 50lbs of lean muscle.

New C-Suite Matrix Commerce Chief Customer Officer Chief Information Officer Chief Supply Chain Officer

How to Make the Case for the Digital CXO Webinar Recording

Today Constellation hosted the webinar, How to Make the Case for the Digital CXO. Please find the webinar reording and additional digital CXO resources below. 

Disruption is inevitable. The Chief Digital Officer (CDO) is the executive that will lead companies through the current era of digital disruption. 

Resources

 

Download the deck 

 Download the report: Making the Case for the Chief Digital Officer 

Read: Who Gets to be the CDO?

 

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Sony Finds Influencers Among Friends, Not Social Celebrities

Partner, Sensei Marketing
Partner, Sensei Marketing

Sales & marketing veteran with almost 30 years’ experience and now 1800 digital projects to his credit for clients including Morgan Stanley, AOL, Hyatt Gaming Management, Snyder's of Hanover, Hitachi, the Home Depot, Kraft Foods, Drees Homes, American Idol, and hundreds more, including leading agencies around the North America.     ...

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Pursways, a new influence targeting software firm, has announced that Sony is now testing its new platform, which transforms a brand’s existing customer and prospect database into a customized social graph. It identifies actual relationships between people and empowers marketers with the knowledge they need to motivate action.

People buy what their friends buy but how can you target those friends?

Over the last three years, social scoring platforms like Klout, Kred, and PeerIndex have been making news in marketing circles with claims that they can identify the most influential people in various categories on the Internet.  Today the power of social influencers to sway actual purchase decisions has been largely debunked and replaced by newer theories and platforms such as Traackr and Appinions. These tools have stripped away the ego-centric and gamified public scoring system in favor of multi-point data analysis that determines who drives real and measurable action for brands.

People buy what their friends buy

When Danny Brown and I wrote Influence Marketing: How to Create, Manage, and Measure Brand Influencers,  we created a new model that changed the focus of influence marketing. We demonstrated that the key to swaying purchase decisions was based on the context of the personal relationship between consumers and those they connect to via social channels, not the socially active and popular “celebrities” they follow.

Sony and Pursways have tapped into that concept by connecting the communications occurring between friends in social conversations, direct mail, and email communications.  Sony’s vice president of marketing has confirmed that the program has aided in converting more customers by better identifying and targeting real-life relationships among their target audience.

In short, the system studies the conversations of 150 million US consumers to identify communication patterns and keywords that connect people based on their shopping-specific dialogue.  Those conversations help identify target customers in the buying cycle for specific products and services, and leverages that knowledge to offer targeted marketing messages.

The Influential Power of Real Relationships

Within a large online community,  many people may be engaged in a group conversation, yet the net result of that mass engagement is vastly different than that of the exchanges between two people with a defined relationship at a particular moment in time.

Group conversations serve to highlight issues, publicly debate commonly held beliefs, or make the larger community aware of trending topics. The net result is almost always “awareness.”  When two people within a defined relationship (such as co-workers, family members, etc.) speak to each other about a specific product (eg. smart phone, groceries, autos, etc.) and at a specific time in the consumer buying cycle (awareness, consideration, decision), the result is often behavioral change.

There’s a fundamental difference in the trust attributed to the collective voice of our social community than that given to individuals with whom we share personal experiences. The collective voice of our community may agree that Geico has the best auto insurance program, but we often choose an auto insurance company based on the experiences of our parents and siblings.

Influence Marketing and Customer Relationship Management

According to Jeremy Lyons, Senior Manager, Email and CRM Programs at Sony Electronics, after struggling to monetize Facebook and influence scoring platforms such as Klout, Sony found success with this new focus.

By connecting social behavior and social connections with purchases, Sony Electronics has been able to increase various revenue and profit-driving metrics, including the number of responses generated by the campaign, the number of referrals generated, the number of conversions earned, an increase in repeat purchases, and the number of inactive customers who purchased again.

If you wish to analyze the success of your influence marketing campaigns, these are the metrics that contribute to actual measurement: Revenue; profit; and customer lifetime value.   “The ability to understand the impact on the bottom line” is critical to understand marketing success added Lyons.  Sony set its influence marketing benchmark as the “ability to understand the influence on [its] financials…of customers who are social, and really understanding who are the people that can influence their family and friends….that drive new sales.”

The fact that Sony has tasked its CRM manager with an influence marketing campaign is a positive sign of things to come in this industry.

Sensei Debates

Should influence marketing campaigns be adopted by CRM/email marketing professions and software?

Sam Fiorella
Feed Your Community, Not Your Ego

The post Sony Finds Influencers Among Friends, Not Social Celebrities appeared first on Sensei Marketing.

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PeopleLinx Pivots To Social Selling

Alan Lepofsky

Vice President & Principal Analyst
Constellation Research

Alan Lepofsky - VP and Principal Analyst, Constellation Research. With almost two decades of experience in the collaboration software industry, Lepofsky helps organizations improve the way their employees work together to get their jobs done. Lepofsky’s primary research area The Future of Work, focuses on: integrating collaboration and business processes (Purposeful Collaboration), structuring work via Social Task Management, leveraging analytics and digital assistants to work more productively, the strategic impact of mobile computing on business transformation, and measuring workforce culture based on Digital Proficiency instead of age. Twitter: @alanlepoLinkedIn: https://ca.linkedin.com/in/alanlepo     , Title: Big IdeasIntelligent Collaboration: The Intersection of…...

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Yesterday's launch of PeopleLinx version 3 represents an important evolution for the company, as they shift their platform from being LinkedIn-centric to broader platform for helping Sales Professionals do their job.

When I first met with PeopleLinx, the company was focused on helping businesses improve their employee's LinkedIn profiles. The idea was that employees are embassadors of the company they work for and therefore their LinkedIn profiles should properly represent their employer. That never resonated well with me, as in my opinion, my LinkedIn profile represents me, not the company I work for.

With V3, I'm happy to report that PeopleLinx has now evolved their vision and product to be part of the fast growing "Social Selling" market. What that means is, PeopleLinx examined the end-to-end workflow that Sales Professionals go through from lead generation to signing new customers, and is providing tools to help various steps along the way.  At the moment the company is focused on the areas of content distribution and employee training or guidance, but their roadmap includes much more.

For content distribution, PeopleLinx is providing a way for employees to share content with their connections on various social networks.  For example, say the Marketing department creates a new product brochure. They can upload that content to PeopleLinx and each Sales Professional can then share (via social media) the brochure with their prospects and customers.  PeopleLinx then tracks the sharing of that content, providing a dashboard for monitoring the combined activity.



On the employee training side, PeopleLinx guides (and tracks) employees through a set of steps that their company has configured.  As you can see below, each step has an action for the employee to take, which they can either dismiss or mark as completed.




MyPOV: The Challenge of Yet-Another-Tool

There are several impressive things about PeopleLinx. They have invested a lot of time with their customers to understand what they need to make their sales teams more organized, better connected, and consistent in delivery. V3 is a step in the right direction in delivering on those needs. They have also invested heavily in user experience / design. The product is simply yet powerful, clean yet highly functional.

The challenge I see is that PeopleLinx is "Yet-Another-Tool".  It is not the company intranet, email client, social network, file-sharing tool, project management platform, CRM package, social media monitor, etc. It's an additional tool that Sales Professionals will have to add to their ever expanding toolset (both on desktop and mobile) and that may not be something people are looking to do. I'd like to see PeopleLinx partner with some of the key social business vendors, enabling them to surface their content sharing and guided tasks inside the company intranet, social network or task system.  

There are several players in the Social Selling market, including vendors like Nimble, Contatta, Tellwise, RelateIQ (now owned by Salesforce.com), Crushpath, TinderBox, Clearslide and many more. The product that can offer the most seamless (integrated) experience across all the tasks that busy sales professionals have to do, while at their desk and on the road, is the one that has the best chance of winning.
 

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Disrupt Your Strategy – Planning for Audiences not Generations

Gavin Heaton

Founder
Disruptors Co

Gavin is the Founder of Disruptors Co, one of Australia’s leading independent strategy and innovation companies. Gavin advises firms on strategy, marketing, product development and innovation. He is also a member of the Orbits program, the influencer network of award winning analyst and advisory firm, Constellation Research. Gavin advises boards and leadership on innovation strategy, marketing, data-driven product development and corporate venturing. Gavin is on the board of Vibewire, a youth-led social enterprise based in Sydney, Australia and on the Technology Advisory Group for Good2Give – the workplace giving platform. ...

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But populations don’t interest me. They feel like a dead weight around my sense of, and interest in, humanity. Instead, I prefer audiences – which is perhaps why I studied theatre rather than statistics.

It’s also why I am continually fascinated by digital technology and transformation – and it is why social media continues to attract the attention of people, corporations and governments. For digital transformation is not just about bringing the non-digital world online – it’s challenging the very nature of what we consider “our selves” to be.

As marketers, we are constantly drawn to the idea of demographics – the cashed up profiling of the Baby Boomers, the anxious, try-harder Gen X-ers and the slacker Gen Ys. But like any generalisation, these labels are easily unpicked. There are plenty of Baby Boomers who are slackers and plenty of cashed up, power wielding Gen X-ers. And Gen Y are just starting to flex their creative, financial and intellectual powers – and there is more goodness to come. Rather than simply relying on this style of profiling, we should be working harder to understand these audiences. We need to map their behaviours, attitudes and interests, not just their age, sex and location.

This is why I quite like the work that marketing automation firm, Marketo, has done on Generation Z. And while, yes, they have started out with the age-focused label, the research carried out by agency, Sparks and Honey, reveals the patterns of behaviour, interests, attitudes and insights that can help build a deeper understanding of this audience. While the data reflects a US-based audience, there are cultural parallels that are useful indicators such as:

• Do-Gooders – an interest in making a difference in the world
• Shift FROM Facebook – Facebook lost its allure when the parents arrived. Gen Z are embracing newer platforms like snapchat, secret and whisper
• Creation trumps sharing – Gen Z embrace the prosumer ethic of digital media creativity.

But to really understand this “Gen Z” audience, I would go further. I wouldn’t stop at the age of 19. I would ask:

• Why would my brand be relevant to audiences exhibiting these behaviours
• Why would these audiences choose to purchase my product/service/thing
• Which values embodied by my brand augments the life, behaviour, experience or purpose of this audience
• How do these behavioural profiles help me understand my customers regardless of age / demographics

And when it comes to planning, insight and future proofing your brand, I’d look to opportunities to self-disrupt your strategy. Ditch the path of lazy profiling, put the work in to really understand your audiences, and then invite them into the process of creating a brand that has a purpose. Start by delving into the data behind the Sparks and Honey research (below) – and then work on your own business by starting with the audiences you rely upon.

Marketing Transformation Chief Customer Officer Chief Marketing Officer Chief Digital Officer

Disrupt Your Planning – It’s Time We Ditched Lazy Profiling

Gavin Heaton

Founder
Disruptors Co

Gavin is the Founder of Disruptors Co, one of Australia’s leading independent strategy and innovation companies. Gavin advises firms on strategy, marketing, product development and innovation. He is also a member of the Orbits program, the influencer network of award winning analyst and advisory firm, Constellation Research. Gavin advises boards and leadership on innovation strategy, marketing, data-driven product development and corporate venturing. Gavin is on the board of Vibewire, a youth-led social enterprise based in Sydney, Australia and on the Technology Advisory Group for Good2Give – the workplace giving platform. ...

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1

But populations don’t interest me. They feel like a dead weight around my sense of, and interest in, humanity. Instead, I prefer audiences – which is perhaps why I studied theatre rather than statistics.

It’s also why I am continually fascinated by digital technology and transformation – and it is why social media continues to attract the attention of people, corporations and governments. For digital transformation is not just about bringing the non-digital world online – it’s challenging the very nature of what we consider “our selves” to be.

As marketers, we are constantly drawn to the idea of demographics – the cashed up profiling of the Baby Boomers, the anxious, try-harder Gen X-ers and the slacker Gen Ys. But like any generalisation, these labels are easily unpicked. There are plenty of Baby Boomers who are slackers and plenty of cashed up, power wielding Gen X-ers. And Gen Y are just starting to flex their creative, financial and intellectual powers – and there is more goodness to come. Rather than simply relying on this style of profiling, we should be working harder to understand these audiences. We need to map their behaviours, attitudes and interests, not just their age, sex and location.

This is why I quite like the work that marketing automation firm, Marketo, has done on Generation Z. And while, yes, they have started out with the age-focused label, the research carried out by agency, Sparks and Honey, reveals the patterns of behaviour, interests, attitudes and insights that can help build a deeper understanding of this audience. While the data reflects a US-based audience, there are cultural parallels that are useful indicators such as:

• Do-Gooders – an interest in making a difference in the world
• Shift FROM Facebook – Facebook lost its allure when the parents arrived. Gen Z are embracing newer platforms like snapchat, secret and whisper
• Creation trumps sharing – Gen Z embrace the prosumer ethic of digital media creativity.

But to really understand this “Gen Z” audience, I would go further. I wouldn’t stop at the age of 19. I would ask:

• Why would my brand be relevant to audiences exhibiting these behaviours
• Why would these audiences choose to purchase my product/service/thing
• Which values embodied by my brand augments the life, behaviour, experience or purpose of this audience
• How do these behavioural profiles help me understand my customers regardless of age / demographics

And when it comes to planning, insight and future proofing your brand, I’d look to opportunities to self-disrupt your strategy. Ditch the path of lazy profiling, put the work in to really understand your audiences, and then invite them into the process of creating a brand that has a purpose. Start by delving into the data behind the Sparks and Honey research (below) – and then work on your own business by starting with the audiences you rely upon.

Marketing Transformation Chief Customer Officer Chief Marketing Officer Chief Digital Officer

SuperNova Awards Now Closed

Sorry folks, this year's SuperNova Award competition is now closed!*

The judges are hard at work evaluating your applications. 

We will be announcing the finalists and inviting them to Connected Enterprise on August 26, 2014!

Check back on September 9 to vote for your favorite finalist to win the SuperNova Award!

TIMELINE

• May 22, 2014 application process begins. 
• August 1, 2014 August 12, 2014 last day for submissions.
• August 22, 2014 August 26, 2014 finalists announced and invited to Connected Enterprise.
• September 9, 2014 voting opens to the public
• September 30, 2014 polls close
• October 29, 2014 Winners announced, SuperNova Awards Gala Dinner at Connected Enterprise 

*Please contact [email protected] if you need a short extension. 

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More Waves of Digital Disruption: From DoubleClick to Twitter via Facebook

Gavin Heaton

Founder
Disruptors Co

Gavin is the Founder of Disruptors Co, one of Australia’s leading independent strategy and innovation companies. Gavin advises firms on strategy, marketing, product development and innovation. He is also a member of the Orbits program, the influencer network of award winning analyst and advisory firm, Constellation Research. Gavin advises boards and leadership on innovation strategy, marketing, data-driven product development and corporate venturing. Gavin is on the board of Vibewire, a youth-led social enterprise based in Sydney, Australia and on the Technology Advisory Group for Good2Give – the workplace giving platform. ...

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When DoubleClick launched their self-service advertising network it was a revelation. It provided marketers with a powerful sense of control over their advertising, its placement and spend. At the same time, it caused a level of disintermediation – with marketers taking on the media planning that was once the domain of agencies. Technology was, in effect, causing an in-sourcing within marketing departments – by providing the tools, techniques and education to succeed, DoubleClick was putting the power and knowledge in the hands of marketers who began to understand the intricate power and relationships between data, planning and budgets. DoubleClick represented a wave of digital disruption that we are still feeling today.

It was a no-brainer for Google to acquire DoubleClick in 2007 and roll its advertising network into its product line. And as they leveraged their massive advantage in search to bring additional context, targeting and data insights to bear, this advertising network became available (and useful) to smaller advertisers – to small business owners and startups – monetising the “long tail” of the internet and generating another wave of disruptive innovation in the marketing world.

And while Google has done wonders with its AdSense product, the DoubleClick heritage and its clunky user interface left it open to disruption. Into this gap stepped Facebook with its billion strong, socially connected audience, offering a slick, audience oriented interface.

With Facebook advertising, there was none of the legacy media planning/buying jargon or process dominating the interface. It was about creating very limited (or should I say “constrained”) styles of ad units and then targeting them by a range of data points – from the standard demographics (age, sex, location), to the more sophisticated  targeting of interests, connections and combinations thereof. Facebook took its cues from the disruptive trend that began with DoubleClick and pushed it further, generating a massive business in the process. Recent results showed that Facebook’s revenue rose 61% to $2.91 billion in the second quarter of 2014. This more than doubles Facebook’s profit year-on-year, up from $333 million to $791 million.

Recently, Facebook streamlined their ad creation process by following good user-experience design – focusing on the desired outcome rather than the process of advertising. By asking “what kind of results to you want for your adverts?”, Facebook were able to help novice advertisers improve their advertising. It didn’t require education or training. And it certainly did not require some certification. They used their knowledge, insight gleaned from the data generated by millions of ads and design expertise to help their advertisers make better ads.

Sure there is the more advanced ad building tools, but for many, this is good enough – and a vast improvement on the previous toolset.

And now, Twitter are also upping their game. I suspect they are hoping to disrupt the markets that DoubleClick created, Google grew and Facebook co-opted. Taking a similar approach to Facebook, Twitter now offer objective based campaigns – again, turning their big data to the advantage of their advertisers, customising workflows and creating niche outcomes like “app installs” or “leads”.

It’s an advertising product that is still being rolled out across Twitter’s global client base. It will be interesting to see how it performs when it starts being trialled by local Australian clients. But one thing is for certain – it won’t be the last wave of disruption in the digital marketing sphere. Learn more about the new Twitter offerings in the video below.

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Who Do You Think You Are? Coming face to face with your ancestors in a world of big data

Gavin Heaton

Founder
Disruptors Co

Gavin is the Founder of Disruptors Co, one of Australia’s leading independent strategy and innovation companies. Gavin advises firms on strategy, marketing, product development and innovation. He is also a member of the Orbits program, the influencer network of award winning analyst and advisory firm, Constellation Research. Gavin advises boards and leadership on innovation strategy, marketing, data-driven product development and corporate venturing. Gavin is on the board of Vibewire, a youth-led social enterprise based in Sydney, Australia and on the Technology Advisory Group for Good2Give – the workplace giving platform. ...

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I have been working on a family tree for some years. It’s a project that progresses in fits and starts. And like many things in my life, it began because it was easy to start doing it online.

In the early days I had multiple accounts on various websites. I was using Ancestry.com for their data and loving Geni for the user interface. There were free sites, blogs and a range of other resources available which were brilliant. I scoured the online records of NSW Births Deaths and Marriages, dug into the Heaton family archives, bought self-published books, and visited local libraries.

I was excited to learn that the Heaton family tree was relatively well documented, going back over 850 years. I readily filled in details, transcribing from one website to another, validating where I could and making notes where it felt unclear. My tree grew and grew – and pretty soon I understood more about the lives of my dark, distant relatives than my second cousins. I found out that Heatons all come from the same place – a town called Heaton in Lancashire. It was described in 1870 as follows:

HEATON, a township in Deane parish, Lancashire; on the Lancashire and Yorkshire railway, 2 miles WNW of Bolton. Acres, 1, 630. Real property, £4, 542; of which £109 are in mines and £250 in quarries. Pop. in 1851, 826; in 1861, 955. Houses, 180. The manor belonged to the Heaton family in the time of Edward III. Coal, building stone, and slate flags abound.

As my efforts grew, I realised I needed to commit to a single online record. I had hundreds of names and facts in my trees and it was becoming time consuming to keep all trees updated. To make matters more complicated, the owners of various records were making exclusive arrangements with one or other of the main genealogy websites which meant that you could have facts and sources competing with each other depending on which website you were using. For example, a parish record may indicate a christening 1 May 1887 – while a compilation report will show only the quarter and year (eg April-June 1887).

Eventually my separate trees began to diverge.

Not everyone has this problem. Because the Heaton line was relatively easy to follow, my tree grew quickly. But I soon found that following other paths through the tree – that those of humbler lives – rarely leave records. Sure, there are events like a birth, wedding or death – and maybe even a residence. But what of the stuff of life? What of their loves and struggles? Much of this is lost to time.

In the end I needed to use an online service that would help reveal as much of these forgotten lives as I could. I bit the bullet and I chose Ancestry.com to house all my records. There were a couple of important considerations:

• It has a broad and growing number of digitised records and images from Colonial Australian times
• The integration of older genealogy message boards under the one umbrella while clunky is a treasure trove of information
• Comparing and contrasting member records helps you tap into the collective knowledge of your far-flung family members

Now, while the technology is interesting, the underlying data that the Ancestry site contains is compelling. And sure, they could do with some work on their data store – but for most people interested in family history, it’s an easy way to get started. But the most amazing thing about this big data site is the fact that it helps us tell the story of our own histories. It brings you face to face with your ancestors in a way that has never been possible before.

I am now embarking on a more micro-focused family history project that centres on Thomas Francis, my fifth great-grandfather and the first of my ancestors to arrive in Australia. He was not anyone special, really, but he was special to me and all my family. After all, like all ancestors, we wouldn’t exist without them.

But working on a family tree shows you not the importance of a name, but the equal importance of all those genetic influences. Each day I wonder what has been handed down to me from my ancestors – tastes, interests, body shapes, diseases, strengths, attitudes. Even the way I stand. Walk. Greet the world.

Who do you think you are? I’m hoping to find out a little more. And who knows, maybe we are related. And maybe, I will document it as we go so that my descendants have an easier time of it.

BTW – that’s me in the photo in between my grandparents. Now I know where I got my body shape from.

Marketing Transformation Chief Customer Officer Chief Marketing Officer

Revisiting software professionalism

Steve Wilson

Former Vice President and Principal Analyst
Constellation Research

Steve Wilson is former VP and Principal Analyst at Constellation Research, leading the business theme Digital Safety and Privacy. His coverage includes digital identity, data protection, data privacy, cryptography, and trust. His advisory services to CIOs, CISOs, CPOs and IT architects include identity product strategy, security practice benchmarking, Privacy by Design (PbD), privacy engineering and Privacy [or Data Protection] Impact Assessments (PIA, DPIA). Coverage Areas: -  Identity management, frameworks & governance-  Digital identity technologies-  Privacy by Design -  Big Data; “Big Privacy”-  Identity & privacy innovation Previous experience: Wilson has worked in ICT innovation, research, development and analysis for over 25 years. With double…...

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The ongoing debate (or spat) on Twitter about the "No Estimates" movement had me reaching for the archives. Some say that being forced to provide estimates is somehow counter-productive for software developers. I've long thought about programming productivity, and the paradox that software is too soft.

Some programmers want special treatment. In effect, "No Estimates" proponents are claiming their particular work is not amenable to traditional metrics and management. In a way they're right; there is as yet no such thing as software "engineering". There are none of the handbooks or standards that feature in chemical, mechanical and electrical engineering. But nevertheless, if a programmer knows what they're doing -- if they know their subject matter and how their code behaves -- then providing estimates is not that difficult. Disclaiming one's ability to predict how long a task will take is a weird way to try and engage with the business.

Software is definitely a difficult medium. It's highly non-linear, and breeds amazing complexity. But a great many of today's problems, like the recent #gotofail and Heartbleed scandals, are manifestly due to chaotic development practices.

As such, programmers are part of the problem.

I once wrote a letter to the editor of ComputerWorld about this ...

IT Governance

Yes indeed, IT is made the scapegoat for a great many project disasters (ComputerWorld 28 September, 2005, page 1). But it may prove fruitless to force orthodox project management and corporate governance methodologies onto big IT projects. And at the same time, IT "professionals" are not entirely free of blame.

So the KPMG Global IT Project Management Survey found that the vast majority of technology projects run over budget. In the main, "technology" means software, whether we build or buy. The "software crisis" - the systemic inability to estimate software projects accurately and to deliver what's promised - is about 40 years old. And it's more subtle than KPMG suggests in blaming corporate governance. It is fashionable at the moment to look to governance to rectify business problems but in this case, it really is a technology issue.

Software project management truly is different from all other technical fields, for software does not obey the laws of nature. Building skyscrapers, tunnels, dams and bridges is relatively predictable. You start with site surveys and foundations, erect a sturdy framework, fill in the services, fit it out, and take away the scaffolding. Specifications don't change much over a several year project, and the tools don't change at all.

But with software, you can start a big project anywhere you like, and before the spec is signed off. Metaphorically speaking, the plumbing can go in before the framework. Hell, you don't even need a framework! Nothing physical holds a software system up.

And software coding is fast and furious. In a single day, a programmer can create a system more complex than an airport that might take 10,000 person-years to build. So software development is fun. Let's be honest: it's why the majority of programmers chose their craft in the first place.

Ironically it's the rapidity of programming that contributes the most to project overruns. We only use software in information systems because it's fast to write and easy to modify. So the temptation is irresistible to keep specs fluid and to change requirements at any time. Famously, the differences between prototype, "beta release" and product are marginal and arbitrary. Management and marketing take advantage of this fact, and unfortunately software engineers themselves yield too readily to the attraction of the last minute tweak.

The same dynamics of course afflict third party software components. They tend to change too often and fail to meet expectations, making life hell for IT systems integrators.

It won't be until software engineering develops the tools, standards and culture of a true profession that any of this will change. Then corporate governance will have something to govern in big technology projects. Meanwhile, programmers will remain more like playwrights than engineers, and just as manageable.

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