Results

Summer 2017 News Analysis - Microsoft Makes Azure Stack Available

What’s the news: Azure Stack – announced a little more than two years ago is Microsoft’s on premise version of Azure (with some reduced / missing capabilities to the cloud version). Originally slated to run on Microsoft hardware and available last summer, the product suite is now available for partners to certify. And partners (the usual suspects) are in line to certifiy their hardware asap.
 

Why it matters: Despite the trend to cloud there are still many enterprises that have to operate enterprise automation on premises. Look at the number of SAP customers opting to run S/4HANA on premises. Microsoft now offers a path for them to run Azure similar / identical products – and build and move applications and load to an Azure like on premises stack – with the option to move it later. And there are plenty of motivated hardware vendors that want to sell more servers to customers for their local data centers (Cisco, Dell, HP etc etc.)
 
The intro slide of Azure Stack from Build 2015


MyPOV: Good to see more on-premise options coming, a key move for Microsoft to help customers stay on Microsoft and get future proof. How well the partner approach will work for this – remains to be seen. But Microsoft has a successful track decade spanning record to partner with hardware vendors. The partner approach differs from Oracle – that provides all themselves, but as well with the on premises vs cloud choice. With enterprises getting same / similar options from trusted vendors (don’t forget IBM here, too) – they will look at these offerings more seriously.

CxO Advice: If you are a Microsoft shop with on premises requirements (data privacy, residency, performance, data center availability, legacy loads) this a key announcement. It’s must prototype and pilot territory. Don’t wait for your favorite hardware vendor for this, they will all come along in a few months, when a positive pilot leads to a production decision. Azure stack as a pilot on any test can have the bonus as a lock-in avoidance as well as a commercial argument. In general CIOs and CTOs need to see that not all loads must go to the cloud, but we still recommend the cloud from an innovation speed and elasticity for most enterprise scenarios.
 
 
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McKinsey’s State Of Machine Learning And AI, 2017

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  • Tech giants including Baidu and Google spent between $20B to $30B on AI in 2016, with 90% of this spent on R&D and deployment, and 10% on AI acquisitions.
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI) investment has turned into a race for patents and intellectual property (IP) among the world’s leading tech companies.
  • U.S.-based companies absorbed 66% of all AI investments in 2016. China was second with 17% and growing fast.
  • By providing better search results, Netflix estimates that it is avoiding canceled subscriptions that would reduce its revenue by $1B annually.

These and other findings are from the McKinsey Global Institute Study, and discussion paper, Artificial Intelligence, The Next Digital Frontier (80 pp., PDF, free, no opt-in) published last month. McKinsey Global Institute published an article summarizing the findings titled   How Artificial Intelligence Can Deliver Real Value To Companies. McKinsey interviewed more than 3,000 senior executives on the use of AI technologies, their companies’ prospects for further deployment, and AI’s impact on markets, governments, and individuals.  McKinsey Analytics was also utilized in the development of this study and discussion paper.

Key takeaways from the study include the following:

  • Tech giants including Baidu and Google spent between $20B to $30B on AI in 2016, with 90% of this spent on R&D and deployment, and 10% on AI acquisitions. The current rate of AI investment is 3X the external investment growth since 2013. McKinsey found that 20% of AI-aware firms are early adopters, concentrated in the high-tech/telecom, automotive/assembly and financial services industries. The graphic below illustrates the trends the study team found during their analysis.

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  • AI is turning into a race for patents and intellectual property (IP) among the world’s leading tech companies. McKinsey found that only a small percentage (up to 9%) of Venture Capital (VC), Private Equity (PE), and other external funding. Of all categories that have publically available data, M&A grew the fastest between 2013 And 2016 (85%).The report cites many examples of internal development including Amazon’s investments in robotics and speech recognition, and Salesforce on virtual agents and machine learning. BMW, Tesla, and Toyota lead auto manufacturers in their investments in robotics and machine learning for use in driverless cars. Toyota is planning to invest $1B in establishing a new research institute devoted to AI for robotics and driverless vehicles.

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  • McKinsey estimates that total annual external investment in AI was between $8B to $12B in 2016, with machine learning attracting nearly 60% of that investment. Robotics and speech recognition are two of the most popular investment areas. Investors are most favoring machine learning startups due to quickness code-based start-ups have at scaling up to include new features fast. Software-based machine learning startups are preferred over their more cost-intensive machine-based robotics counterparts that often don’t have their software counterparts do. As a result of these factors and more, Corporate M&A is soaring in this area with the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) reaching approximately 80% from 20-13 to 2016. The following graphic illustrates the distribution of external investments by category from the study.

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  • High tech, telecom, and financial services are the leading early adopters of machine learning and AI. These industries are known for their willingness to invest in new technologies to gain competitive and internal process efficiencies. Many start-ups have also had their start by concentrating on the digital challenges of this industries as well. The\ MGI Digitization Index is a GDP-weighted average of Europe and the United States. See Appendix B of the study for a full list of metrics and explanation of methodology. McKinsey also created an overall AI index shown in the first column below that compares key performance indicators (KPIs) across assets, usage, and labor where AI could contribute. The following is a heat map showing the relative level of AI adoption by industry and key area of asset, usage, and labor category.

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  • McKinsey predicts High Tech, Communications, and Financial Services will be the leading industries to adopt AI in the next three years. The competition for patents and intellectual property (IP) in these three industries is accelerating. Devices, products and services available now and on the roadmaps of leading tech companies will over time reveal the level of innovative activity going on in their R&D labs today. In financial services, for example, there are clear benefits from improved accuracy and speed in AI-optimized fraud-detection systems, forecast to be a $3B market in 2020. The following graphic provides an overview of sectors or industries leading in AI addition today and who intend to grow their investments the most in the next three years.

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  • Healthcare, financial services, and professional services are seeing the greatest increase in their profit margins as a result of AI adoption. McKinsey found that companies who benefit from senior management support for AI initiatives have invested in infrastructure to support its scale and have clear business goals achieve 3 to 15% percentage point higher profit margin. Of the over 3,000 business leaders who were interviewed as part of the survey, the majority expect margins to increase by up to 5% points in the next year.

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  • Amazon has achieved impressive results from its $775 million acquisition of Kiva, a robotics company that automates picking and packing according to the McKinsey study. “Click to ship” cycle time, which ranged from 60 to 75 minutes with humans, fell to 15 minutes with Kiva, while inventory capacity increased by 50%. Operating costs fell an estimated 20%, giving a return of close to 40% on the original investment
  • Netflix has also achieved impressive results from the algorithm it uses to personalize recommendations to its 100 million subscribers worldwide. Netflix found that customers, on average, give up 90 seconds after searching for a movie. By improving search results, Netflix projects that they have avoided canceled subscriptions that would reduce its revenue by $1B annually.
Data to Decisions

Digital Transformation Digest: Samsung Eyes IoT Data Monetization, Google's Native Ad-Blocker Emerges, the Fight to Save Flash, and More

Constellation Insights

Samsung wants to turn IoT data into money: In 2015, Samsung launched ARTIK, its entry into the IoT platform market. Now it is adding a layer to ARTIK that's aimed at helping IoT device makers generate revenue off the data they use. Here's the value proposition as stated in Samsung's announcement:

For device manufacturers, IoT shifts their operating model from selling hardware to selling hardware products connected to digital applications. Today, device manufacturers often have trouble recouping data costs associated with free applications and supporting an ecosystem of third-party devices, apps and services. Manufacturers have to either absorb the data costs of operating devices in the field, or factor in anticipated data costs to the retail price of devices.

Samsung ARTIK Cloud Monetization addresses this problem by providing a complete brokering, metering and payments system. It gives device manufacturers an easy way to make their devices interoperable with third-party devices and applications, and monetize data useage. With the Samsung ARTIK Cloud developer portal, device manufacturers have the flexibility to define service plans that meet their business needs. Samsung ARTIK Cloud brokers and meters user interactions against the defined plan, and manages upgrades, payments and revenue share back to the device OEM.

Some may quibble with Samsung's description of the service as the first of its kind, but it undeniably targets a legitimate pain point for IoT device makers.

Samsung's announcement fits into one of the four business models for IoT defined by Constellation VP and principal analyst Andy Mulholland—that of a broker. "Owners of endpoints and consumers of data in ecosystems from smart cities to transportation and alike need a middle broker who interconnects and charges," he says. "There are a host of services around categorization and context for the endpoint, as well as charging, that need to be provided. Given that Korea is one of the hottest spots for smart cities and ecosystems it would seem logical that Samsung ride their homemarket to bring this role into play. But western markets are not so advanced as to immediately be able to make use of this."

Google's native Chrome Ad-Blocker surfaces: Last month, news emerged that Google was developing a native ad-blocker for its Chrome browser. It seemed counterintuitive at first given how much Google depends on web advertising for revenue, but the idea is to block annoying ads and ultimately stop them from getting produced at all. 

Now the tool has shown up in Canary, the pre-release version of Chrome for Android, as Techcrunch notes. Google is planning to make the tool generally available sometime next year, according to previous reports.

Google has joined up with the industry group Coalition for Better Ads, a group with members including Facebook, Unilever, Proctor & Gamble, Thomson Reuters and the World Federation of Advertisers. The CBA is fighting against a dozen types of desktop and mobile ads, including auto-playing video ads with sound, large sticky ads and full-screen scrollover ads.

POV: There are already effective ad-blocking extensions for Chrome and other browsers, but marketers and advertisers should take Google's move seriously, as Chrome commands more than 60 percent of the browser market. Users who haven't installed third-party ad blockers might feel more comfortable doing so with a native tool option.

Digital transfomation keeping some tech jobs back to U.S.: The New York Times took a look at the trend toward U.S. companies looking to onshore outsourcing companies for forward-thinking IT projects. While the piece's evidence is partly anecdotal, there are plenty of interesting nuggets, such as this one:

Monty Hamilton, a former Accenture consultant, took over Rural Sourcing in 2009, when it had just a dozen employees. Today, the company has 300 workers in four delivery centers: in Albuquerque; Augusta, Ga.; Jonesboro, Ark.; and Mobile, Ala. The payroll will reach about 400 people by the end of the year, Mr. Hamilton said.

“Every business now realizes it’s a digital business,” he said. “They need technical help, and that’s really driven the demand for our U.S.-based talent.”

As the NYT notes, massive offshoring players IBM and Infosys recently announced plans to hire an additional 35,000 workers in total over the next few years.

POV: There's no indication offshoring is in any great peril, given the amount of legacy systems that still need maintenance, preferably at a low cost. But the trend outlined in the story is for real, and as such enterprises undergoing digital transformation should shape their talent procurement strategies accordingly.

Legacy watch: Petitioners hope to save Adobe Flash from extinction: Adobe's long-standing but not-exactly-loved Flash multimedia player is set to be retired, but will live on in another form if backers of a new petition on Github have their way. The solution is for Adobe to open-source Flash and the related Shockwave application builder, which would be right thing to do, the petitioners say:

Flash along with its sister project Shockwave is an important piece of Internet history and killing Flash and Shockwave means future generations can't access the past. Games, experiments and websites would be forgotten.

Open sourcing Flash and the Shockwave spec would be a good solution to keep Flash and Shockwave projects alive safely for archive reasons. Don't know how, but that's the beauty of open source: you never know what will come up after you go open source!

We understand that there can be licensed components you might not be able to release. Simply leave them out with a note explaining what was removed. We will either bypass them, or replace them with open source alternatives.

POV: It's not clear how successful the petition will be, but there's certainly ample precedent of vendors releasing discarded proprietary code as open-source. That said, Flash usage has dropped substantially over the past few years as newer options such as HTML5 took hold, so there's the question of demand going forward. Moreover, Flash was notoriously buggy and insecure—could a fledgling open-source community do better than Adobe at issuing fixes and shoring up Flash's security? It might be best to let Flash just fade away, but if you want to sign the petition, go here.

 

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Summer News Analysis - Google introduces Google Hire

What’s the news: Google wants to help recruiters be more successful. It wants them to use G-Suite to schedule appointments, Gmail to email with applicants and internal stakeholders, use Google Search to make job post more attractive. Google has also thought of reports and data migration to get started. Hire leverages assets from Bebop – the ‘acquihire’ that brought Diane Greene to Google. The link to the earlier shipped Google Jops API isn’t fully clear, but its more likely than not leveraged.

 
 
Why it matters: Recruiting or more fancy Talent Acquisition is a team sport that is highly fragmented from a systems perspective. Making it easier for the recruiter and the hiring manager is a key to make hiring decisions faster and better, which matters in a tightening jobs market and is crucial for an enterprise to accelerate. 
Google Hire Screenshots from Google's Hire website

MyPOV: Google is getting more and more in the enterprise software space / SaaS market. Good to see it knows that e.g. data migration and reports are a must for the enterprise. It will have to answer questions soon in regards of plans to offer more than recruiting capabilities, e.g. onboarding and learning come to mind. And let’s not forget the veritable market presence LinkedIn (and Microsoft) have in this space. Don’t be surprised if Microsoft ‘embraces and extends’ this automation area at some point and: Microsoft's LinkedIn acquisition makes both vendors already competitors. More competition is good for customers - making products better, licensing competitive etc. So there is little not to like of Google announcing Hire.

CxO Advice – If your recruiting team and / or company is a Google shop, definitively take a look. If not look at the value of the APIs. It’s unlikely a superior recruiting product can unseat Outlook in an enterprise – this is why all the other recruiting vendors offers interfaces to Outlook (and increasingly, G-Suite). Google may learn this in the next quarters, so stay tuned. Even if you can’t move – ask your recruiting vendors for the same features – on their platform.

 
 

 

Future of Work Tech Optimization Next-Generation Customer Experience Digital Safety, Privacy & Cybersecurity Data to Decisions Innovation & Product-led Growth New C-Suite Sales Marketing Google AI Analytics Automation CX EX Employee Experience HCM Machine Learning ML SaaS PaaS Cloud Digital Transformation Enterprise Software Enterprise IT Leadership HR Chief Customer Officer Chief People Officer Chief Human Resources Officer

Silicon Valley has forgotten Com Sci 101

Artificial Intelligence is with us today.  When you fire up your smart phone’s map application, it knows where you’re probably going based on the time of day, and without prompting, gives you a bit of advice about how to get there and what traffic jam to avoid. That’s pretty cool. And from there we easily slide into an optimistic outlook for self-driving cars.

Let’s take a long hard look at the smooth-talking claims behind autonomous cars, “Big AI”, the Singularity, and the presumption that within a few years we will see a human-like awareness in computers.  Let’s start with the limits of computation.

When I did first year computer science in the 1970s, we were taught about the fundamental limits of algorithms. Logicians know with mathematical certainty that there are some things that algorithms can’t do, but Silicon Valley has forgotten the lesson, and instead is barrelling down the road of autonomous vehicles.

Algorithmic failures are deeply unpredictable. Already there have been some horrible missteps in machine vision. Recall the “racist” image classification algorithms.  The problem goes beyond developers’ bias infecting their work; it’s about an optimism that has infected the whole of the AI project.  If a computer can’t even solve the Halting Problem – predicting whether or not a program is going to stop – then what chance is there really that an autonomous car can be delegated responsibility for life-and-death decisions?

An AI engineer’s first encounter with ethics may be the Trolley Problem. But what they can fail to glean from Wikipedia is that the Trolley Problem has no resolution. The moral of the story is that our philosophical frame of reference shapes our response to life and death questions.  So it cannot be coded. We won’t ever have a program driving a car that’s going to come up with right answers all the time (or socially acceptable ones) to real life moral dilemmas. 

Think about the good old courtroom drama.  Why does this TV genre never grow old? It's because real-life problems of accountability and responsibility play out in myriad unpredictable ways.  There's always some unforseen twist - a precedent - that makes tough cases so absorbing. Even real life lawyers can't predict the outcomes of legal cases (which is why we have real life lawyers).  There is no algorithm for these things, and after a while, the AI industry is going to find that self-driving car crashes get messy. 

Nevertheless, I've heard automobile executives speculate that customers might be given a configuration option when setting up their new self-driving cars, to prioritise the life of the driver or that of the pedestrian in the event of a looming accident. If anyone thinks that a computer can be reliably programmed to make that sort of call, then that mindset is itself unethical.

We urgently need a more sophisticated way of framing AI, around an understanding that there are some things that computers just can’t do.

Every algorithm is always going to reach its limit, where it’s either going to tip into unpredictable behavior, or just grind to a halt because it can’t figure out what to do. One of the tricks in human intelligence is we seem to know when to call for help. We can realise our limitations, and pick when we need a second opinion, or seek counsel from a trusted advisor, or take a poll.  There can be no universal algorithm for detecting a responding to failure.  Any algorithm for detecting failure will itself occasionally fail, and then what will happen?

I’m not saying that there’s something mystical going on in the human brain, but there are some deep cognitive problems that we haven’t worked out yet. So I find it unethical for captains of industry to be treating self-driving cars as almost a solved problem. AI is much harder than it looks.

 

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Social Business News July 28 2017

Alan's Angle - The Social Business News Recap for the week ending July 28th, 2017

Slack raises $250M - Analytics, AI, business partners and their first customer conference

WalkMe raises $75M - Digital Adoption Platforms help guide people through enterprise applications and websites

Mitel acquires ShoreTel - How will they reconcile their overlapping UCC and collaboration tools?

Shelf.io raises $2.2M - Aggregate content from multiple repositories into a single container

Future of Work

Zoho Launches Zoho One Business Suite

This week Zoho launched Zoho One, an offering that provides customers with access to all of the Zoho business and productivity applications for a single price of $1/person/day. If you're unfamiliar with Zoho, you should really take a look at their extensive product portfolio which includes:

  • Personal Productivity: Word processing, spreadsheets, slides and note-taking
  • Communication and Collaboration: Email, chat, web-conferencing, social networking, group messaging, file-sharing and project tracking
  • Business processes: Sales/CRM, marketing, customer support, finance/invoicing, human resources and a custom application (low-code) developer tool

While perhaps not as well know as its Microsoft and Google competitors, Zoho does have an impressive 3rd party ecosystem of extensions available via the Zoho Marketplace

Customers Take Note

While individual applications in the Zoho One portfolio may not offer as many features as their counterparts from Microsoft Office 365/Dynamics, Google GSuite, Salesforce, Workday, and others, Constellation Research believes Zoho One's complete platform solution provides a very attractive option for many businesses. As outlined in the research report Why Your Organization Should Buy a Collaboration Platform Instead of a Best-of-Breed Solution, having a single platform provides advantages in integration, administration, security and several other areas.


 

 

Future of Work

IBM Connections Engagement Center Now Available

On July 25th IBM announced the availability of IBM Connections Engagement Center. This is the first release of this optional enhancement to IBM Connections since IBM acquired the software from TIMETOACT back in May.  I could not find any information about Engagement Center on the IBM Connections website, but you can learn more about it in this SlideShare presentation.

Constellation Research believes IBM Connections customers will see value in this add-on, as it provides additional intranet and extranet functionality that helps Connections compete with community software such as Microsoft SharePoint, Salesforce Community Cloud, Jive Software, ThoughtFarmer, Igloo and Jostle.

 

Future of Work

Digital Transformation Digest: Amazon's Cloud Growth, Starbucks' Spins Its 'Digital Flywheel,' and More

Constellation Insights

Inside the numbers for Amazon Web Services' Q2: Amazon reported second-quarter earnings this week, and as part of it said revenue for the Amazon Web Services segment had jumped 42 percent to $4.1 billion. At the same time, Amazon ramped up spending on AWS infrastructure in the quarter dramatically, spending $8.1 billion on property acquired through capital leases, up 71 percent year-over-year from $6.7 billion. On a conference call, Amazon CFO Brian Olsavsky touched upon the AWS results:

Our usage in all of our large services are actually accelerating and they're growing at a rate higher than our revenue growth. ... We continue to open new regions. We'll be opening five regions in the near future in France, China, Sweden, Hong Kong and a second government cloud region in the East. So, yes, we like the momentum in that business. Stepping back, I would say that while pricing is important, again, we're generally being selected because of our functionality and pace of innovation, the innovation keeps accelerating.

AWS has been continuing to roll out pricing cuts and new services, and these are having an effect on the bottom line, he added:

We've had numerous price decreases, and we continue to have that in the AWS business, both absolute decreases in service costs and also rolling out new services that may be cannibalizing more expensive other services that we provide.

POV: By any reasonable measure, the AWS results are strong. But nor is AWS running away with the market; Microsoft last week reported that Azure revenue had nearly doubled in its second quarter. While Azure is working with a smaller revenue base than AWS, making it easier to post such big numbers, the growth is telling and impressive.

What's important to note is that in the cloud arms race, the weapons vendors are honing in general are good for customers: Richer features, lower costs, better reliability and broader availability. That being said, lock-in remains a key concern, and Constellation believes most enterprises will end up with a multi-cloud strategy, whether they realize it now or not.

Whitman shoots down Uber rumors: HPE CEO Meg Whitman is not moving into the top slot at embattled ridesharing startup Uber, she said in a number of Tweets. Bloomberg had reported Whitman was on the short list to fill the job, which was vacated by Uber founder Travis Kalanick earlier this year following a series of scandals.

“Normally, I do not comment on rumors, but the speculation about my future and Uber has become a distraction,” Witman tweeted. “I am fully committed to HPE and plan to remain the company’s CEO. We have a lot of work still to do at HPE and I am not going anywhere.”

POV: Other big names are now circulating as potential Uber CEOs, including outgoing General Electric CEO Jeffrey Immelt. Uber has plenty of work to do and its board should deliberately carefully before making a choice. Enterprise IT and Uber aren't often said in the same breath, but for all its faults, the company has been a true industry disruptor and its fate is worth watching closely.

Starbucks heats up its 'digital flywheel' strategy: Coffee and tea giant Starbucks has seen its business ebb and flow over the years—one example is its decision to shutter nearly 400 mall-based Teavana stores—and is betting that a broad digital transformation of both its internal IT and ongoing relationship with customers is the way to long-term success. The company first outlined its "digital flywheel" plan in December, and on its Q3 earnings call this week global chief strategy officer Matthew Ryan gave an update on its plans.

A big part of it is about driving customer loyalty. For example, Starbucks now has 13.3 million rewards program members who account for 36 percent of its U.S. business, Ryan said. There are four segments to the digital flywheel: gaining new customers, spending-based rewards, personalized offers and easier ways to order:

The data are clear that when we acquire a new customer, the act of signing up for a digital relationship results in a sudden and sustained lift in spend, as measured by careful pre/post tracking. That's how we're able to drive so much value from a relatively small portion of customers.

Starbucks Rewards are highly motivating and the conversion to a spend-based program has resulted in a clear lift in member spend. Third, personalization, in which we target specific messages and offers to individual customers based upon their history with us, has proven highly effective, as evidenced by test and control measurements in spend per member. Fourth, mobile ordering remained highly incremental, resulting in many more occasions per customer than would be the case otherwise because the convenience encourages more on-the-go visits.

In addition to our long-term digital technology roadmap, we continue to innovate in the short term around our newer technology platforms. We are expanding personalization by offering new offer constructs, real-time triggers and push notifications to engage customers more deeply, building on the momentum that is generating the higher spend per member.

Ryan had a lot more to say about Starbucks plans; a transcript is available here (login required).

POV: Retail is a game that gets tougher all the time, but Starbucks future plans are ambitious and it's aleady been an early mover in customer engagement practices that lead to increased spend. There's something many enterprises can learn from its strategic direction.

 

Future of Work Marketing Transformation Matrix Commerce Next-Generation Customer Experience Tech Optimization Chief Customer Officer Chief Digital Officer Chief Executive Officer Chief Financial Officer Chief Information Officer Chief Marketing Officer Chief Revenue Officer Chief Supply Chain Officer

Summer 2017 News Analysis Series - Preview

Nothing is more feared by the colleagues of the writing press than summer, when nothing happens. But this summer is off to a different start – with substantial news coming out in the 2nd half of July...

 
 
 
 
Here are the key ones for my coverage area on Enterprise Acceleration, Future of Work and NextGen Apps (in alphabetical order and barring nothing else major happens - July ain't over yet):
  • Google introduces Hire
  • Infor introduces Coleman
  • Microsoft makes Azure Stack available
  • Oracle puts money into IaaS
  • SAP makes Leonardo more tangible
  • Samsung has a its best quarter
  • Workday announces a PaaS
 
And I  will try a new format across these blog posts:
  • What’s the news – A quick paragraph on what happened – with link to vendor announcement.
  • Why it matters – My take why this is a key development.
  • MyPOV – My usually take on the news.
  • CxO Advice – What’s a CxO to do now. Some advice on the next steps and for who it matters.
Hope you enjoy the format – let me know what you think – stay tuned.
 
 
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