Larry Dignan

Editor in Chief of Constellation Insights
Constellation Research
Larry Dignan photograph

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After perusing this IPO filing and thinking for a bit, I can't help but wonder about the following:

  • Index funds and money managers are going to cash out winners (or losers) to pay for SpaceX shares. Look for the MAG 7 led by Nvidia to become the source of cash for SpaceX.
  • This source of cash issue is going to be a bigger deal when Anthropic and OpenAI go public. There's only so much capital.
  • I thought SpaceX was bigger. That reaction is common when you read the IPO filing of a private market darling.
  • That xAI purchase changes the profile for SpaceX and it's a financial sinkhole. Most space sector investors would have preferred SpaceX and Starlink.
  • Who the hell approved this ridiculous total addressable market graphic? Oh we all know.
SpaceX stats 2

End of day I'll let the market figure this one out.

Quote of the week via Ed Zitron:

"How many tokens does it take to do one thing? Is it consistent across every model? Is it consistent across every employee? Are you even measuring how many tokens a task costs? Because if you’re not, that token budget is basically throwing a dart blindfolded.

Okay, now you’ve measured a task, did you make sure to measure it multiple times? Because LLMs can randomly do things differently even with the same prompt and same Claude.MD file and same strictures and same data sources. You’re gonna need at least 10 samples of each task, and you’re gonna need to make sure somebody who actually knows what they’re doing can measure them, because if you get a dimwit, they’re going to say it can do something it can’t.

Unless, of course, you can’t actually measure how many tokens a particular task can take with much accuracy, in which case every single AI token budget is bullshit. And each model does things differently depending on many different variables, some of them a result of the user, some of them a result of the AI labs themselves."

Cohere said it is releasing its Command A+ model under the Apache 2.0 license. Command A+ is a mixture of experts model now available on Hugging Face. The model is designed for efficiency.

The company recently said it will merge with Aleph Alpha. See: Cohere acquires Aleph Alpha to form US AI counterweight

According to Cohere:

“Progress in sovereign AI today depends on advancing three fronts simultaneously: performance, security, and cost. At Cohere, we are investing across all three — both in our models and in the domain-specific capabilities that power North.

That means improving reasoning, multimodal understanding, and coding performance, while ensuring models remain fit to run entirely within customer environments. The goal is not just stronger benchmarks, but systems that can support enterprise-wide transformation under real operational constraints.”

Overall, I like the Cohere move since the game for the company really revolves around North and sovereign AI. You’d have to be crazy to lock yourself into a proprietary model given how quickly things are changing with AI. More:

Intuit reported a better-than-expected third quarter with revenue of $8.6 billion, up 10%, with earnings of $11.09 a share. Non-GAAP earnings were $12.80 a share. Sasan Goodarzi, CEO of Intuit, said the company's "AI-driven export platform strategy" and proprietary data are a winning combination.

As for the outlook, Intuit projected fourth quarter revenue growth of 11% to 12% with non-GAAP earnings of $3.56 a share to $3.62 a share. That outlook includes $300 million in restructuring charges. Intuit is cutting 17% of its workforce to become "a faster, leaner, more focused company."

I'll plan on following Intuit's call and look for more on the AI strategy.

Alibaba CEO Eddie Wu penned his shareholder letter and had a bunch to say about AI. Here's a look:

"We expect the addressable market for companies like Alibaba that provide full-stack AI capabilities is poised to grow exponentially. Against this backdrop, Alibaba's AI has moved beyond the initial investment phase and entered full-scale commercialization."

Alibaba's cloud external revenue growth was 40% in its latest quarter.

"At the infrastructure layer, our proprietary T-Head AI chips have achieved production at scale, delivering high-performance compute capacity to our cloud infrastructure and Model-as-a-Service (MaaS) inference platform."

And then there's Qwen.

"In foundation models, we continued to accelerate our research and development pace, releasing three updates to the Qwen family within the past three months. Our latest generation large language model, Qwen3.7-Max, is specifically engineered for agents and expands the frontier of model capabilities, including in core competencies such as agentic coding and complex reasoning. Complementing the Qwen family, we achieved advancements in specialized models such as HappyOyster, a real-time interactive generative world model, and HappyHorse, a multimodal model for cross-modal understanding and generation."

Here's a look at Qwen 3.7 Max.

Alibaba AI efforts

Salesforce announced a bevy of Informatica updates and integrated the data platform more with its core properties. Here’s what’s available, planned and launching in 2026.

  • Headless Data Management and Headless CLAIRE — Generally Available, Spring 2026
  • Agentic Integration — Q4 2026
  • Data Quality Agent — Generally Available, Spring 2026
  • Metadata Enrichment Agent — Q4 2026
  • Agentic Multidomain MDM and Data Steward Agent — Q4 2026
  • Data 360 Connector and Scanner — Generally Available, Spring 2026
  • MDM Integration with Data 360 — Q3 2026
  • CLAIRE in Slack — In Preview Now — Q4 2026
  • Agent Fabric Context Catalog — Generally Available, Spring 2026

OpenAI is likely to file for its IPO soon as it scurries to the public markets to ride along with Anthropic, says the Wall Street Journal. I can't wait to see these numbers.

The Journal said in its story in a rather understated way.

OpenAI will have to overcome a host of other challenges, namely concerns about whether the company will be able to generate enough revenue to support its giant data-center spending commitments.

Ya think?

Aveva, an industrial software company, and IFS, which focuses on enterprise software for verticals such as manufacturing, inked a deal to integrate systems to better track assets and data. The companies said the joint effort will focus on combining operational and asset data to speed up decisions. Use cases will revolve around maintenance, capital planning and risk management. The partnership is the latest indicator that operational technology and IT are converging.