Results

The Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) evaluated the open-weight AI model DeepSeek V4 Pro and found it lags frontier models by about 8 months.

CAISI, a unit of NIST, has a full report, but the most notable comparison is cost. After all, a model that lags frontier models by 8 months may be just swell for most use cases.

"CAISI selected a U.S. reference model by filtering out U.S. models that performed significantly worse on public benchmarks or that cost significantly more per token than DeepSeek V4 Pro. The only model meeting these criteria was GPT-5.4 mini, which was selected as a point of reference. In CAISI’s aggregated capability analysis, GPT-5.4 mini receives an Elo score of 749, which is similar to DeepSeek V4 Pro’s score of 800.

DeepSeek V4 costs less than GPT-5.4 mini on 5 out of 7 CAISI benchmarks."

DeepSeek V4 Pro

Ever since Microsoft reported its fiscal third quarter earnings I've been stuck on one word: Eval-max. Eval-max? What?!?

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said the following (emphasis mine):

"It was a record third quarter powered by the continued strength of Microsoft Cloud, which exceeded $54 billion in revenue, up 29% year-over-year. Our AI business surpassed $37 billion ARR, up 123%. We are at the beginning of one of the most consequential platform shifts that will change the entire tech stack as agents proliferate and become the dominant workload. This will drive TAM expansion and change the value creation equation across the entire economy. To capture this opportunity, we are executing against 2 priorities. First, we are building the world's leading cloud and AI infrastructure for agentic computing era. Second, we are building high-value agentic systems across core domains such as productivity, coding and security. These 2 layers reinforce each other, and we are focused on driving competitive value and differentiation for customers across each so that they can eval-max their outcomes."

Max could become the new "super." All you have to do is attach it to every word and you'll sound ___. I'll leave the blank to you.

Earnings to know after the bell.

  • Storage remains hot as SanDisk and Western Digital topped estimates. SanDisk's fiscal third quarter earnings of $23.03 a share crushed estimates on revenue of $5.95 billion, up 97% from a year ago. Data center revenue was up 233% from a year ago. Fourth quarter revenue will be between $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion.
  • Western Digital's third quarter also shined with earnings of $8.20 a share on revenue of $3.34 billion, up 45% from a year ago. Fourth quarter revenue will be about $3.65 billion.
  • Atlassian eased SaaS fears with better than expected third quarter results. The company reported a third quarter net loss of $98.4 million, or 38 cents a share, on revenue of $1.79 billion, up 32% from a year ago. Non-GAAP earnings in the third quarter were $1.75 a share. Atlassian projected fourth quarter revenue of $1.653 million to $1.661 million. Shares surged in afterhours trading.
  • Rivian's first quarter was notable not because of its vehicle production (10,236), but because its software and services revenue was $473 million out of a total of $1.38 billion. Software and services revenue was up 49% from a year ago courtesy of vehicle electrical architecture and software development services as well as vehicle repair and maintenance. Rivian counts VW as a big investor.

Meta released its first quarter results and overall they were strong with revenue up 33% from a year ago. As usual, Meta said it will spend more money on AI infrastructure. The company said 2026 capital expenditures will be between $125 billion to $145 billion, up from the $115 billion to $135 billion forecast last quarter.

Here's the problem. Unlike Google, Amazon and Microsoft, Meta has to monetize AI through advertising. It doesn't have a cloud business where it can sell capacity to enterprises.

Meta Q1 2026 Capex

Some initial takeaways on cloud earnings all hitting at the same time.

Google Cloud is thriving as an AI layer and TPU sales are strong. The integrated AI stack pitch is working well. Things are going so well that I don’t sweat the company raising its capex outlook again. Alphabet is getting returns. Annual revenue run rate for Google Cloud now $80 billion.

AWS has a big base and accelerating growth. You can quibble about 28% growth missing whisper numbers, but hey it’s a $150 billion annual revenue run rate.

Microsoft Cloud is consistent, growing and almost boring. That’s not a bad thing. Microsoft Azure revenue was up 40% in the fiscal third quarter.

Most of the MAG 7 reports tonight as Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft all report earnings. I'll be focused on the cloud hyperscalers.

  • Alphabet is expected to report non-GAAP first quarter earnings of $2.63 a share on revenue of $107.03 billion.
  • Amazon is expected to report first quarter earnings of $1.64 a share on revenue of $177.17 billion.
  • Microsoft is expected to report fiscal third quarter non-GAAP earnings of $4.06 a share on revenue of $81.43 billion.

For all three companies, capital expenditures will be closely scrutinized as will revenue growth in cloud units. All three companies have shares that have delivered strong gains in the last month. For instance, Amazon and Alphabet are up 30% and 27% in the last month, respectively. Microsoft has surged 17% in the last month.

Those gains mean there's little margin for error and a high likelihood of sell the news.

Nvidia delivered the latest addition to its Nemotron model family. The company launched Nvidia Nemotron 3 Nano Omni, an open multimodel model designed for AI agents using video, audio, image and text. Nvidia said a host of software companies including Palantir, DocuSign, Infosys and Oracle are evaluating the model.