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The Shifting Sands of AI: Why Enterprise Leaders Need to Look Beyond OpenAI

The Shifting Sands of AI: Why Enterprise Leaders Need to Look Beyond OpenAI

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A Rapidly Evolving Landscape; OpenAI's Disappearing Moat

We've been watching the generative AI landscape transform at breathtaking speed, and what concerns us most is how quickly the narrative around OpenAI has shifted from "unassailable market leader" to "company facing existential challenges." As leaders who have spent our careers at the intersection of technology, policy, and enterprise strategy, we believe that organizations making multi-million dollar AI investments need to understand the broader context beyond the marketing hype.

The concept of a "moat" in business refers to sustainable competitive advantages that protect a company from competitors. OpenAI's initial moat was built on first-mover advantage, technical superiority, and massive funding. All three pillars are now showing significant cracks.

Microsoft—OpenAI's primary backer—has began testing outside models from xAI, Meta, and even Chinese company DeepSeek. Simultaneously, Apple appears to be reconsidering its OpenAI partnership, now engaging with Google about Siri integration. These moves by two of the world's most valuable companies signal serious concerns about OpenAI's trajectory.

The technical superiority argument is also collapsing. OpenAI's rushed GPT-4.5 release shows a 30% error rate—significantly worse than both Anthropic's Claude 3.7 and xAI's Grok3. When your core product is underperforming relative to competitors, enterprise customers take notice.

 

Competition Is Intensifying; The Economics Don't Add Up

While OpenAI struggles, competitors are gaining momentum. Anthropic secured a $3 billion investment from Google and released Claude 3.7, which many consider technically superior to OpenAI's offerings. Elon Musk's xAI launched Grok3 with impressive deep research capabilities. Even OpenAI's former CTO, Mira Murati, launched Thinking Machines Lab and raised $2 billion at a $9 billion valuation in just two weeks.

And we can't ignore developments from China. Within the last few weeks,they announced what they described as the world's first fully autonomous AI agent, called Manus. Unlike some overhyped Western announcements, Chinese AI capabilities have generally delivered on their promises. This represents both competitive and geopolitical considerations for enterprise leaders.

The financial picture is equally concerning. OpenAI is reportedly burning through $1 billion monthly and could lose up to $44 billion by next year. Sam Altman himself admitted they lose money on every $200/month ChatGPT subscription. Their recent announcement of enterprise offerings priced between $2,000-$20,000 monthly appears to be a desperate attempt to stem these losses.

This pricing strategy reveals a company pivoting toward enterprise customers out of necessity rather than strength. But this market is already dominated by Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, who have decades-long relationships with Fortune 500 companies. OpenAI faces an uphill battle against entrenched competitors with deeper pockets and broader offerings.

Despite the recent headline-grabbing $40 billion funding round that catapulted OpenAI's valuation to $300 billion and reports that the company's revenue has grown by 30% in three months, the company still doesn't expect to break even until 2029—four years from now! This timeline raises serious questions about the sustainability of their business model, especially as they continue to burn through cash at an alarming rate.

In a telling strategic pivot, OpenAI has also announced plans to launch an open-weights reasoning model that developers can run on their own hardware. This represents a significant departure from their closed system subscription model and suggests an acknowledgment that their current approach may not remain competitive in the long term. This move appears to be a course correction in response to mounting pressure from both open-source alternatives and competitors offering more flexible deployment options.

 

Strategic Implications for Enterprise Leaders

For CEOs, CTOs, CIOs, and CMOs, these developments necessitate a more sophisticated approach to AI strategy. The days of simply "partnering with OpenAI" as a complete AI strategy are over. We believe enterprise leaders need to consider:

  • Geopolitical factors: How will US-China tensions affect your AI supply chain? What regulatory frameworks are emerging in different regions?

  • Economic sustainability: Are your AI partners financially viable for the long term? What happens if they significantly raise prices or pivot their business models?

  • Technical diversification: How can you build an AI architecture that isn't dependent on a single provider?

Enterprise clients can implement what we call a "multi-modal, multi-model" approach. This means leveraging different AI models for different use cases and maintaining the flexibility to switch providers as the landscape evolves. The companies that will win in the AI era aren't those that pick the "right" vendor today, but those that build adaptable AI architectures.

OpenAI's current valuation approaching $300 billion seems increasingly disconnected from economic reality. While they deserve credit for catalyzing the current AI revolution, enterprise leaders need to recognize that we're entering a new phase where multiple players will drive innovation.

The next 18 months will be critical. We'll see consolidation among smaller AI companies, continued heavy investment from tech giants, and potentially surprising moves from nation-states viewing AI as critical infrastructure. Enterprise leaders need to stay informed not just about the technology, but about these broader market and geopolitical dynamics.

The bottom line for enterprise leaders: your AI strategy needs to be as sophisticated as the technology itself. 

Look beyond the hype, consider the full spectrum of factors at play, and build flexibility into your approach. We believe the latest "wave" of the current AI revolution is just beginning, and the winners will be those who navigate its complexities with clear-eyed strategic thinking.

 

Data to Decisions Future of Work Innovation & Product-led Growth Marketing Transformation New C-Suite Tech Optimization Chief Analytics Officer Chief Data Officer Chief Digital Officer Chief Executive Officer Chief Information Officer Chief Privacy Officer Chief Procurement Officer Chief Product Officer Chief Supply Chain Officer Chief Technology Officer

Designing for Limitations: How TCS Is Using AI to Make Accessibility a Competitive Edge

Designing for Limitations: How TCS Is Using AI to Make Accessibility a Competitive Edge

For decades, accessibility lived in the same bucket as most compliance work: bolted on after the product was built, driven by regulation, and measured by whether complaints stopped coming in. In a recent interview, Constellation analyst Holger Mueller sat down with Shashi Bhushan and Charudatta Jadhav of TCS to make the case that this era is ending, and that AI is the reason the shift is happening now rather than another decade from now.


From Compliance to Competitive Advantage

The starting number in the conversation is hard to ignore: one out of six people globally lives with a disability. For years, that population was treated as a niche segment with limited purchasing power, worth accommodating for legal and reputational reasons but not worth building a strategy around. That calculation is changing. Bhushan pointed to an estimated $1 trillion in aggregate purchasing power among people with disabilities globally, along with anecdotal evidence that companies that strategically serve this segment see substantially higher revenue outcomes.

The panel drew a direct comparison to how organizations now treat cybersecurity spending: initially driven by fear and regulation, but increasingly justified on business grounds. Accessibility, they argued, is on a similar trajectory, just a few years behind. As Bhushan put it, once the realization sets in that this is a one-out-of-six customer base rather than an act of goodwill, board conversations shift from good intentions to competitive strategy.


Designing for Limitations, Not Personas

One of the more interesting reframes in the conversation was TCS's move away from traditional persona-based accessibility design. The conventional approach starts with a defined disability persona and designs around its known requirements, useful, but inherently reactive and limited to whatever personas were considered upfront.

TCS's alternative, which Jadhav called "designing for limitations," starts instead from the limitation itself: sensory, environmental, or ecosystem-level constraints. Rather than asking "how do we accommodate this persona," the question becomes "how do we solve for this class of limitation." Jadhav noted that this approach tends to produce a wider canvas for innovation, and frequently ends up improving the experience for people outside the original target group entirely, a pattern accessibility work has produced repeatedly produced: features built for a specific limitation often end up mainstream. Screen readers, originally built for visually impaired users, are a direct ancestor of the voice assistants now sitting on millions of kitchen counters.


Where AI Changes the Equation

The panel's most forward-looking material centered on what Jadhav called "egocentric models," AI systems trained specifically on accessibility-related data to understand how people with different sensory or physical constraints actually perceive and navigate the world. Unlike general-purpose large language models trained broadly on the internet, these models are purpose-built to understand, for example, how a visually impaired person constructs a mental map of a physical or digital space.

Jadhav extended this into a compelling long-term vision: an AI-powered "digital companion" that accompanies a person across every experience, banking, retail, travel, and beyond, retaining memory of preferences, context, and prior interactions throughout that person's life. Rather than solving accessibility one interaction at a time, the goal becomes eliminating the friction of the limitation itself from the equation entirely. Bhushan, drawing on his own lived experience navigating vision-related accessibility challenges, described the shift plainly: the goal is a world where technology adapts to the human, rather than the human adapting to the technology.


The Road Ahead

Looking toward 2030, the panel pointed to two converging forces: AI's growing ability to directly enhance human capabilities, and its growing ability to build genuinely equitable systems around those capabilities. Their closing framing captured the throughline of the conversation well: enterprises built around accessibility in the AI era will need to be, in Bhushan's words, SMART, sustainable, meaningful, accessible, resilient, and trusted, with technology functioning as an invisible enabler rather than a visible workaround.

The larger argument running through the discussion isn't really about accessibility as a category. It's about where the next decade of competitive differentiation in enterprise technology is likely to come from, and the panel makes a clear case that the answer includes a market segment most organizations have historically underpriced.

Future of Work Tech Optimization New C-Suite Digital Transformation Agentic AI AI GenerativeAI Chief Information Officer Chief Technology Officer Chief Human Resources Officer Chief AI Officer
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On-Prem's Comeback, Qualtrics' New Playbook, and Why AI Needs Context, Not Just Data

On-Prem's Comeback, Qualtrics' New Playbook, and Why AI Needs Context, Not Just Data

Enterprise AI is outgrowing the model and the chatbot. That's the thread running through Episode 139 of ConstellationTV, where the conversation keeps landing on the same question from different angles: once AI has to actually operate inside the business, across infrastructure, customer experience, and decision-making, what does it need to work reliably?


The Big Debate: Is On-Prem AI Actually Making a Comeback?

Mike Ni moderated a debate between Holger Mueller and Esteban Kolsky on one of infrastructure's oldest questions, reopened by AI: does it run on-prem or in the cloud?

Mueller pointed to strong recent hardware numbers from Dell and HP as evidence of a real on-prem renaissance, but argued the pull toward public cloud is still structural. His analogy: running AI on-prem today is like a company generating its own electricity a century ago. It's possible, but the economics of elasticity eventually win. He introduced a concept he's calling "GPU gravity," the idea that faster GPUs will pull workloads toward them the same way data gravity pulls more data together, because in agent-to-agent interactions, the agent running on faster infrastructure simply makes better decisions, faster, more often.

Kolsky pushed back with an inference-economics argument: for steady, predictable, high-volume AI workloads, owning the infrastructure can be cheaper than the public cloud, and mainframes are seeing renewed relevance because of their CPU management strength. Ni added the practical wrinkle, that CIOs can't easily justify large capital expenditure to a board when workloads are still in experimentation mode, and that latency from data routing is a real cost most people underweight.

The debate didn't resolve into a single answer, and it wasn't supposed to. All three converged on hybrid as the near-term reality, but disagreed on the tilt: Mueller sees the long-term center of gravity moving to public cloud, Kolsky sees a genuine opening for on-prem economics, and Ni framed the real strategic question as workload routing, balancing quality, latency, data access, policy, and cost, rather than picking one mode and committing to it.


Qualtrics' New Chapter: From Measuring Experience to Simulating It

Liz Miller, Mike Ni and R "Ray" Wang sat down with the Qualtrics team in Salt Lake City following the company's recent launch event, and the shift they described is meaningful. Experience management has historically meant deciding on an experience, pushing it out, and measuring the response after the fact. Qualtrics' new direction moves that earlier: simulate the experience against synthetic panels, predict the outcome, and only then act, rather than running hundreds of live experiments against real customers.

Wang framed the shift around three ideas: simulate, trust, and outcome. The simulation piece lets teams test far more granular audience segments than traditional A/B testing ever allowed, down to sub-sub-personas rather than broad 50/30/20/10 splits. But the more interesting shift is philosophical. Miller pointed out that CMOs have spent years assuming they control the customer experience, when the customer has always been the one actually managing it. Qualtrics' new positioning directly acknowledges this, aiming to deliver "tailored" experiences that adjust in real time based on context, time, location, journey stage, even physiological signals, rather than a single predetermined path.

The two also unpacked "ontology" in plainer terms: it's the structured relationship between the signals a system tracks and what those signals actually mean for the experience being delivered. That structure, built on Qualtrics' roughly 20 years of experience data, is what makes simulation trustworthy rather than just another guess.


Splunk's Reinvention: Making Agents Reliable, Compliant, and Cost-Aware

Splunk used its recent conference to lay out a broader reimagining of itself as it deepens integration with parent company Cisco. Two announcements stood out to Constellation analyst Chirag Mehta. The new Observability Studio focuses on tokenomics, directly addressing a problem enterprises are already facing with agents in production: keeping them reliable, compliant with policy, and within budget. And Splunk is extending into security operations centers, where AI agents can now handle detection, investigation, response, and governance tasks directly.

The Cisco relationship is providing Splunk with meaningful distribution, with existing Cisco customers now able to discover Splunk's capabilities through products such as Cisco Command Center and AI Canvas. The framing throughout: Splunk's core strength was always turning data into answers, and that strength now extends to monitoring the behavior, security, and economics of AI agents themselves, not just the systems around them.


New ShortList: Semantic and Context Management

Mike Ni closed the episode by introducing Constellation's newest ShortList, covering semantic and context management, and made the case for why it deserves to be its own category rather than a subset of data management.

His framing: most executives can't cleanly define "enterprise context," but they know immediately when it's missing. A dashboard showing a 12% pipeline shrink isn't actionable on its own; a human operator fills the gap with judgment and experience. AI doesn't have that judgment, which turns missing context into an architectural problem the moment agents start taking action rather than just generating insight.

Ni drew a clear line between data management's traditional questions (what data do we have, can we trust it, what does it mean) and the newer layer semantic and context management adds: what matters right now, and what is an agent allowed or expected to do about it. He evaluated the category across nine capabilities, from semantic management and AI grounding to policy-aware context and explainability, and spotlighted Actian as a vendor worth watching.

Actian's approach centers on a federated knowledge graph that connects metadata, lineage, definitions, and policy across systems without requiring organizations to physically move their underlying data, paired with a knowledge graph that captures relationships and dependencies in a form AI systems can actually traverse, not just search. Ni also highlighted Actian's move toward "activated" context: machine-readable data contracts and support for standards like MCP that let governed context reach analytics tools, applications, and AI agents directly at runtime.

His closing question for AI leaders is the one worth sitting with: are your metadata investments just documenting the business, or are they becoming something your AI can actually use?


The Throughline

Every segment in this episode circles back to the same tension: enterprise AI's hard problems have moved past the model itself and into the infrastructure, context, and operating choices that surround it. Where workloads run, how experience decisions get made, whether agents stay reliable and cost-aware, and whether AI has the context it needs to act rather than just respond — these are the questions defining the next phase of enterprise AI adoption.

Tech Optimization Data to Decisions Digital Safety, Privacy & Cybersecurity Marketing Transformation Cloud Data to Decisions AI Agentic AI cybersecurity Chief Information Officer Chief Technology Officer Chief Marketing Officer Chief AI Officer
On ConstellationTV

Splunk Reimagines Observability in the AI Era

Splunk Reimagines Observability in the AI Era

AI agents are moving from experimentation into production. As that happens, enterprises face a new set of challenges: How do you know agents are producing reliable results? Are they staying within policy? What are they costing? And how do you understand their behavior at scale?

At its recent conference, Splunk outlined how it is reimagining its platform around these questions, bringing together observability, AI-powered security operations, and its growing integration with Cisco.


From Data to Agent Observability

Splunk has long built its business around helping organizations make sense of data. Now, that same capability is being applied to AI agents.

One challenge organizations face when deploying agents in production is ensuring that they remain reliable, compliant, and cost-effective. Splunk's new Observability Studio addresses this by focusing on understanding agent behavior and token usage.

The shift is important. As agents become more autonomous, monitoring traditional application performance is no longer enough. Organizations also need visibility into how agents operate, what they consume, and whether they are behaving as expected.


Turning Context Into Action

Observability provides the context. The next step is turning that context into action.

Splunk is extending AI agents into security operations, where security analysts can use agents to support detection, investigation, response, and governance.

This points to a broader evolution in enterprise AI. Agents aren't simply generating information or assisting employees. They are increasingly being connected to operational workflows where their actions can have direct business and security consequences.

That makes visibility and control increasingly important.


The Cisco Connection

Splunk's relationship with Cisco is another major part of the company's evolution.

Cisco acquired Splunk more than two years ago, and the integration has continued while Splunk remains available to its traditional customer base. Cisco customers can now discover Splunk capabilities through products including Cisco Command Center and AI Canvas.

The combination also gives Splunk access to Cisco's broad customer distribution, creating an opportunity to bring Splunk's data and observability capabilities to a wider enterprise audience.


The Bigger Story: Data at Machine Scale

The next phase of AI will generate enormous volumes of operational data about how agents behave, what they consume, and what they accomplish.

That creates an interesting opportunity for Splunk.

Its traditional strength has been making sense of data. In the agentic era, that increasingly means understanding data generated at machine scale and using it to improve the reliability, security, governance, and economics of AI systems.

The question now is less about whether enterprises will deploy AI agents and more about how they will manage them once they are operating at scale.

Splunk is betting that observability will be a critical part of that equation.

Digital Safety, Privacy & Cybersecurity Data to Decisions cybersecurity Security Chief Information Security Officer
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Qualtrics Reimagines Experience Management: Simulation, AI and Decision Velocity

Qualtrics Reimagines Experience Management: Simulation, AI and Decision Velocity

For years, experience management has focused on a familiar question: How did the customer feel?

But AI is changing the question.

Now organizations can ask: What experience should we deliver? What outcome will it create? And can we test it before we act?

In this live conversation with Constellation analysts, Liz Miller, R “Ray” Wang, and Mike Ni explore Qualtrics' evolving vision for experience management and why simulation, data, AI, and feedback loops could fundamentally change how organizations make decisions.


From measurement to prediction

Traditional experience management often begins after the experience has occurred. Organizations collect feedback, analyze sentiment, and use that information to improve the next interaction.

The opportunity now is to move experimentation before the action.

The conversation highlights Qualtrics' use of simulation and synthetic panels to test potential strategies without running every experiment against real customers. That creates an opportunity to explore more scenarios while reducing the cost and risk of experimentation.


The rise of human experience intelligence

Data alone doesn't explain an experience. A customer may say they're frustrated with pricing when the real issue is delivery, lack of perceived value, or something else entirely.

That means organizations need to connect operational data to the human experience behind it.

The conversation points to this as an important gap for enterprise leaders. Systems can tell you that an escalation happened. They don't necessarily tell you why the customer experienced friction in the first place.


From A/B testing to A-to-X

Traditional marketing experimentation has always had limits.You test a handful of variables, identify a winner, and assume the result applies broadly. Simulation changes the equation.

Instead of testing only a few scenarios with live audiences, organizations can explore a much broader range of possibilities and more granular customer segments before making a decision.

That creates something much more valuable than another optimization tool:

Decision velocity.


The data problem doesn't disappear

Simulation and prediction only work if the underlying data is connected.

Many enterprises still operate with fragmented systems and disconnected data. The conversation describes the challenge as a "Franken stack," where information is scattered across systems and important inputs fall through the cracks.

Qualtrics' diagnostic approach is positioned around identifying those gaps and creating a more connected view of the customer experience.


Experience becomes a business metric

Perhaps the biggest shift is moving beyond satisfaction scores and sentiment. The conversation points toward customer lifetime value and cost of engagement as more meaningful measures.

That changes the conversation for CMOs. Instead of asking whether a campaign generated a positive response, leaders can start asking:

  • What drove the outcome?
  • What did the experience cost?
  • What will happen if we change it?
  • What is the impact on lifetime value?

This turns experience from a measurement exercise into a business decision system.


The new experience management

The most interesting part of Qualtrics' evolution may be that it isn't trying to become every system in the enterprise.

The vision discussed is about creating an intelligence layer that can simulate, predict, and deliver better outcomes across the systems organizations already use.

For enterprise leaders, that could mean a fundamentally different approach to experience:

Measure less. Understand more. Simulate before acting. Learn continuously.

And ultimately, make better decisions faster. That may be the next chapter of experience management.

Next-Generation Customer Experience Data to Decisions Marketing Transformation CX Data to Decisions Marketing Chief Information Officer Chief Marketing Officer
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Leading Through Turbulence: Empathy, AI Workflow Economics, and the New IT Playbook | DisrupTV Ep. 451

Leading Through Turbulence: Empathy, AI Workflow Economics, and the New IT Playbook | DisrupTV Ep. 451

Leading Through Turbulence: Empathy, AI Workflow Economics, and the New IT Playbook | DisrupTV Ep. 451

In an AI-driven world that is turbulent, over-hyped, and deeply human all at once, the leaders who will define the next era are those who can hold empathy and decisiveness together — and who know the difference between deploying AI and actually monetizing it.

Key Takeaways

  • Empathy is not softness — it’s information gathering. Understanding context, perspective, and human impact makes leaders better decision-makers, not weaker ones. Maria Ross reframes empathy as a performance multiplier.
  • Clarity is an act of empathy. Leaving people in ambiguity keeps them in fight-or-flight mode, which kills creativity, performance, and willingness to change. Over-communicating direction is not over-managing — it’s leading.
  • Joy is not a nice-to-have. It’s neurological. Without dopamine, people cannot be open to novelty, learning, or change. David Bray’s crisis-tested lesson: if your team can’t crack a smile, they are not ready to absorb what’s coming next.
  • Agency is the antidote to chaos. In crisis and in transformation, involving teams in the why and the where we’re going gives them the psychological grounding to act rather than freeze.
  • True AI ROI only happens when you change the economics of a specific workflow. Hiral Chandrana’s framework: the workflow is the work being done in a real industry context; the economics are the levers you move. If AI doesn’t change those levers, it’s not monetized — it’s just a demo.
  • Healthcare alone represents a massive untapped AI opportunity. ~25% of U.S. healthcare spend is administrative overhead. Areas like revenue cycle management have seen only 10-15% cost reduction despite years of tech investment. Chandrana sees 50-60% reduction potential with better AI-driven workflows.
  • The CIO must become a growth partner, not just an infrastructure owner. CIOs who speak the language of P&L, industry workflows, and outcome economics are the ones earning seats at the strategy table — and being considered for CEO and CSO roles.
  • We’ve moved from shadow IT to Eclipse IT. AI isn’t just an unsanctioned tool lurking in the background — it’s eclipsing everything. Jason James’s framing captures how fast AI is outpacing traditional IT governance structures.
  • There is no perfect M&A — or perfect AI deployment. The point of a playbook is not to eliminate uncertainty but to give teams a framework they can adapt as reality diverges from the data room. Grit and adaptability matter more than having all the answers.
  • “I can” beats IQ. James’s hiring philosophy for turbulent environments: he wants people who step up, learn fast, exercise good judgment, and persist — not just people with the highest credentials.

What Empathy at Work Actually Means

Maria Ross opens with the tension every modern leader feels but rarely names clearly: they are expected to support people and deliver results, often simultaneously and at speeds our brains were not built to sustain. She calls this the empathy dilemma — the struggle to balance genuine human support with the hard reality of performance, accountability, and decisions that will not please everyone.

Her reframe is important for analytically minded leaders who are skeptical of empathy as a leadership concept: empathy is not about being soft or touchy-feely. It is information gathering. It is understanding context well enough to make better decisions. As she puts it:

“Empathy is the ability to see, understand, and where appropriate feel another person’s perspective — and then use that information to take the next right step.”

From hundreds of interviews and years of research, Ross distilled five pillars of empathetic and effective leadership. Self-awareness is the foundation — you cannot make space for others’ perspectives if your ego is filling the room. Self-care is next, because leaders who neglect their own energy and boundaries quickly become burned-out bottlenecks. Clarity is the third pillar — leaving people in limbo keeps them in fight-or-flight, which kills creativity and performance. Decisiveness is fourth: empathy is not about avoiding tough calls; it is about making hard decisions with an understanding of human impact and designing support around them. And finally, joy — the surprising pillar — because levity, camaraderie, and small moments of connection matter even in hard work.

Clarity Is an Act of Empathy

Ross emphasizes one insight above the others: clarity is empathy. Ambiguity is not neutral. When leaders under-communicate strategy, rationale, or expected impacts, they leave people in survival mode. That is not kindness — it is abdication.

This is especially consequential in workforces that now span five generations, where assumptions about what professionalism means, how communication should flow, and what success looks like can differ dramatically. Leaders who over-communicate context and direction are not micromanaging. They are removing the friction that silently drains performance.

Three Actions for CEOs and Boards

Ross distills her advice for senior leaders into three concrete actions. First: take a beat and actually listen. Put the ego aside, resist the urge to hide behind a laptop or send another email, and use cognitive empathy — even without emotional investment — to understand what it is actually like from the employee’s point of view.

Second: lean into clarity as an act of leadership. Don’t assume shared definitions. Over-communicate the strategy, the rationale, and the human implications. Third: make tough decisions — but design them with human support built in. The question is not how to avoid a decision that hurts. It is how to help people through. Sometimes that is as simple as creating structured space for people to be heard before being redirected. Ignore this, Ross warns, and you are rowing against the current of human psychology and change fatigue, making your own job as a leader significantly harder.

What 9/11 and the Anthrax Attacks Taught About Leadership

David Bray brings a crisis-tested lens to empathy and leadership. On the morning of 9/11, he was scheduled to brief the CIA and FBI on technology responses to a hypothetical bioterror event. When the attacks happened, that planning became real-time crisis response — followed weeks later by the anthrax incidents that compounded the pressure on every national security and public health institution involved.

From those experiences, and from subsequent work in bioterrorism preparedness and national security, Bray surfaces several enduring lessons about what separates leaders who stabilize from leaders who compound the crisis.

People Bring Distraction and Fear to Work

Bray’s first lesson is one most organizations pretend is not true: employees arrive carrying global crises, local pressures, and personal worries in their heads. Leaders who design for the fiction of the fully-focused, undistracted worker create the conditions for tunnel vision, reactivity, and burnout. The reality of human cognitive load is not a HR problem. It is a leadership problem.

Without Joy, People Cannot Absorb What’s Coming

In turbulent environments, Bray actively watches for signs that his teams can still find moments of lightness. His reasoning is neurological as much as cultural:

“If they can’t crack a smile, they’re not getting the dopamine they need to be open to the new.”

That openness is not a nicety. It is the prerequisite for adopting new technologies, embracing new strategies, and resisting the doomerism that narrows what leaders believe is possible. This connects directly to Maria Ross’s fifth pillar: joy is not a soft add-on. It is a neurological enabler of learning and change.

Agency Is the Antidote to Chaos

Bray’s most actionable lesson is about agency. In crisis conditions — and in transformation — the instinct is for leaders to assert control, make unilateral decisions, and project certainty. But that instinct often compounds the chaos.

His alternative: start with why. Why are we here? Where do we want to go together? Involving teams in those questions gives them psychological grounding and a sense of co-ownership over the path forward. The alternative — leaders who panic, call in unprepared advisors, and make consequential decisions without understanding the system they are in — routinely compounds crises that could have been contained.

The Framework: Workflow Economics

Hiral Chandrana shifts the conversation from human dynamics to how AI actually creates measurable enterprise value. His framing is direct: true ROI from AI only happens when you change the economics of specific workflows.

He calls this industry workflow economics. The workflow is the actual work being done in a specific industry context — healthcare claims processing, freight pricing, revenue cycle management. The economics are the levers you can move: cycle time, cost to serve, top-line impact, margin, risk reduction. AI monetization, in this framing, is simply accountability at the workflow level. If AI does not change those levers in a measurable way, it is not monetized. It is a demo.

Healthcare: A Case Study in Untapped AI Potential

Chandrana highlights healthcare as one of the most significant opportunities. Approximately 18% of U.S. GDP flows through healthcare, and roughly 25% of that spend is pure administrative overhead — an enormous burden that technology has been promising to reduce for decades.

One concrete example: propensity-to-pay modeling in collections. Despite years of technology investment, many areas have seen only 10 to 15% cost reduction. Chandrana argues there is potential to cut certain costs by 50 to 60% with better AI-driven workflows — but only if the analysis is micro-level and industry-specific, not generic. That requires strong data foundations, cyber resilience, and what he calls proof economics: showing measurable changes in specific workflow metrics, not just aggregate efficiency claims.

Physical AI and the Industrial Opportunity

Beyond the administrative layer, Chandrana points to what he calls physical AI — the convergence of hardware, software, and models in robotics, autonomous vehicles, and industrial automation and logistics. These are capital-intensive and technically hard problems that require deep simulation, robust data pipelines, and tight integration between physical and digital systems. But they also represent billions of machines likely to be built and deployed over the next decade, making them one of the most significant and still-underexploited AI opportunities on the horizon.

The CIO as Growth Partner

As AI moves from experimentation to execution, Chandrana argues the role of the CIO must evolve. The CIOs who will define the next generation of technology leadership are not those who see themselves primarily as owners of infrastructure and security. They are those who become genuine growth partners — thinking in terms of industry workflows and outcome economics, understanding end-to-end processes well enough to identify where AI can truly change the numbers, and speaking the language of P&L rather than IT budget.

That combination of technology acumen and business acumen is what earns a seat at the strategy table — and, increasingly, what opens pathways to CEO and Chief Strategy Officer roles for technology leaders willing to make that shift.

The Hidden Phase of M&A: Pre-Deal Secrecy

Jason James — CIO of Aptos and author of Make IT Work: An IT Playbook for Mergers and Acquisitions — shines a light on the phase of M&A that most playbooks ignore: the hush-hush period before a deal is announced. Code-named projects, unusual executive behavior, closed-door meetings, and the ever-present risk of accidental leaks — including, in James’s own experience, emails accidentally addressed to the wrong Jason J. — define this period.

Leaders must balance necessary secrecy, to avoid spooking markets and teams, with thoughtful communication timing. For most employees, M&A is not a source of celebration. It is a source of anxiety. The leader who forgets that is setting up a harder integration than they need to have.

From Shadow IT to Eclipse IT

For years, CIOs dealt with shadow IT — unsanctioned tools adopted by business units operating in the dark. James argues that AI has pushed organizations into a fundamentally new phase he calls Eclipse IT:

“AI isn’t just a shadow. It’s eclipsing everything we do.”

AI capabilities are being embedded into every enterprise tool. Organizations are rapidly increasing the number of agents in production. Traditional IT oversight is being outpaced by AI’s proliferation across the stack. The response, James argues, must combine transparency and empowerment with AI-enabled defenses — particularly in cybersecurity, where the same AI capabilities that create risk also enable better monitoring, access control, and hygiene at scale. And it requires what he calls adults in the room: experienced enterprise leaders who understand risk, controls, and regulatory expectations well enough to govern AI rather than simply adopt it.

No Perfect Playbook — But You Still Need One

Perhaps James’s most important message is also his most honest: there is no perfect M&A, and there is no perfect AI deployment. Data rooms rarely match post-close reality. Policies sometimes appear suspiciously fresh. Surprises under the rocks are inevitable.

The point of a playbook is not to eliminate uncertainty. It is to give teams a starting framework, build a culture of adaptability and learning, and create structures that can flex as facts on the ground diverge from the plan. The leaders who navigate this best are not those with the most complete information. They are those with the most adaptive teams.

When hiring for these environments, James prioritizes what he calls grit and growth over pure credential: he wants people who will step up and say they can do it, learn fast, exercise good judgment, and persist through the inevitable surprises. His shorthand: I can beats IQ.

Final Thoughts

This DisrupTV episode brings together four leaders whose work spans human psychology, national security crisis response, enterprise AI strategy, and M&A IT leadership — and finds a single coherent argument running through all of it.

Maria Ross and David Bray establish the human foundation: that leaders who ignore the neurological and emotional reality of the people around them are not just being unkind — they are making their own jobs harder. Clarity reduces the survival-mode thinking that blocks change. Joy and agency are not soft values; they are the prerequisites for the kind of openness to novelty that AI adoption and organizational transformation actually require.

Hiral Chandrana and Jason James translate that foundation into execution. AI value is not in the model — it is in the workflow economics that the model changes. IT leadership is not about infrastructure stewardship — it is about being a growth partner who speaks the language of outcomes. And no playbook survives first contact with reality unchanged, which is why grit, adaptability, and the willingness to say “I can” matter more than having all the answers at the start.

In an era with no historical precedent for what agentic AI is enabling, the leaders who will define what comes next are those who can hold empathy and decisiveness together, combine technical depth with human insight, and continuously bring their teams back to the question that David Bray asks in every crisis: why are we here, and where do we want to go — together?

“In an era with no historical playbook, leadership will be defined by those who can hold empathy and decisiveness together — and who know that AI value lives in workflows, not in slideware.”

Related Episodes

If you found Episode 451 valuable, here are a few others that align in theme or extend similar conversations:

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From “activation energy” and agent orchestration to donkeycorns and relationship capital, DisrupTV 425 explains what actually separates AI hype from real business impact.

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B2C Marketing Automation: Pegasystems Customer Decision Hub

B2C Marketing Automation: Pegasystems Customer Decision Hub

Marketing automation has moved beyond sending the right message to the right customer.

In her latest Constellation ShortList spotlight, Liz Miller examines how B2C marketing automation is evolving from campaign execution to connected customer decisioning.

She spotlights Pegasystems Customer Decision Hub, which takes a pragmatic approach to AI:

  • Use deeper reasoning when the decision requires it.
  • Use deterministic automation when the decision is repeatable.
  • And make decisions that are right for both the customer and the business.

The bigger shift? Marketing automation is becoming less about managing channels and more about making better decisions in context.

Constellation's current ShortList confirms Pega Customer Decision Hub as one of the 12 enterprise B2C marketing automation platforms on the 2026 list. View the full list here: https://www.constellationr.com/research/constellation-shortlist-b2c-marketing-automation-enterprise

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Dreamforce Predictions, Pragmatic AI, and the Rise of Decision Intelligence | CRTV Episode 138

Dreamforce Predictions, Pragmatic AI, and the Rise of Decision Intelligence | CRTV Episode 138

This week's episode of ConstellationTV covers a lot of ground: a Big Debate on what to expect from Salesforce at Dreamforce, a ShortList spotlight on B2C marketing automation, a deep dive into Oracle's database and agentic AI strategy ahead of Oracle AI World, and a look at the fast-growing decision intelligence platforms market.


Big Debate: What's Coming at Dreamforce

Two weeks out from Dreamforce, analysts Michael Ni, Holger Mueller and Esteban Kolsky debated where Salesforce stands heading into the conference. Ni argued that Salesforce enters this year's event in a stronger position than last year, noting that the SaaS thesis that AI would fully disintermediate platforms hasn't played out as some predicted. But he flagged a real risk: if Salesforce loses visibility into user clicks and voice interactions to AI intermediaries like Anthropic, it could lose ground in monetization.

Kolsky pushed back on the idea that Salesforce's self-service data advantage is enough to carry the platform. His take: Salesforce needs to double down on governance, execution, and agent management rather than trying to outcompete pure-play data platforms. He went further, predicting that Agentforce itself could be retired within two to three years if it doesn't deliver.

The debate ended without full agreement, but that's the format. Tune in over the next two weeks to see how the actual Dreamforce announcements measure up.


ShortList Spotlight: B2C Marketing Automation

Analyst Liz Miller broke down what's changed in B2C marketing automation over the past two years. Her take: the category has moved well past list size, segmentation, and channel orchestration. Those capabilities are now table stakes. What separates ShortList-caliber vendors today is the ability to deliver connected customer experiences that drive durable, profitable relationships.

Miller spotlighted Pegasystems' Customer Decision Hub as a standout on this year's list, centering her analysis on the word "pragmatic." Pega's approach applies generative AI at design time, where deep reasoning justifies the cost, while keeping repeatable, high-volume decisions deterministic and automated rather than probabilistic. The result, in Miller's framing, is a platform built at the intersection of what's right for the business and what's right for the customer, rather than optimizing for one at the expense of the other.


Oracle AI World Preview: Database Meets Agentic AI

Ahead of Oracle AI World, Constellation analysts Holger Mueller and R "Ray" Wang unpacked Oracle's recent wave of database and agentic AI announcements. The headline architectural decision: Oracle keeps transactional data inside the Oracle database rather than migrating it into a separate data lakehouse. Unstructured content is ingested into an Oracle AI Data Lakehouse, is vectorized by the Oracle AI Vector Database, and the resulting vectors are then written back to the transactional database. CIOs and CISOs favor this model because it avoids the need to recreate data security and governance profiles in a second system.

Other announcements covered included the AI Database Private Agent Factory for building agents directly on Oracle infrastructure, deterministic trusted answer search to eliminate the risk of hallucinations, voice-driven interactive reports in APEX that stay grounded in existing data, and MCP server support for both on-premises and cloud (autonomous AI database) customers.

The bottom line, as the analysts summed it up: Oracle's differentiation is that customers don't have to move or rearchitect their data to get agentic AI capabilities, while most competitors require exactly that.


ShortList Spotlight: Decision Intelligence Platforms

Ray Wang closed the episode with Constellation's Decision Intelligence Platforms ShortList, a market he projects will reach $42.3 billion by 2031. These platforms run mission-critical, self-driving, self-healing business processes, spanning use cases like campaign-to-lead, procure-to-pay, and hire-to-retire, and trace their lineage back to RPA, process mining, BPM, and journey orchestration.

Wang spotlighted Celonis as one of the vendors on this year's list, highlighting its May 2026 acquisition of Ikigai Labs and the launch of the Celonis Context Model (CCM). The acquisition brings Ikigai's patented Large Graphical Model technology, MIT-backed research focused on tabular and time-series data, into Celonis' platform, adding real-time digital twin capabilities, scenario simulation, and dynamic planning on top of Celonis' existing process intelligence graph. Wang also noted the architecture's zero-copy integrations with AWS, Databricks, Microsoft Fabric, and Snowflake, delivering significant query performance gains.

As agentic workflows become more embedded in enterprise operations, Wang frames decision intelligence platforms as increasingly central to how businesses actually run, not a peripheral analytics layer.

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Decision Intelligence Platforms: How Celonis Enables the Autonomous Enterprise

Decision Intelligence Platforms: How Celonis Enables the Autonomous Enterprise

AI is getting better at generating answers. The next challenge is getting it to make and execute decisions inside the systems that run the business. That's where decision intelligence comes in.

The latest Constellation ShortList for Decision Intelligence Platforms explores a new class of enterprise applications designed to continuously automate precision decisions across mission-critical processes. These platforms sit at the intersection of process mining, intelligent workflow, business process management, journey orchestration, and AI.

The opportunity is bigger than automating individual tasks. The goal is an autonomous enterprise where business processes can continuously learn, adapt, and execute with the appropriate level of human oversight.


From insight to action

Decision intelligence platforms are designed to automate deterministic decisions with compliant execution while improving the precision of probabilistic decisions. That distinction matters.

Enterprise AI can't stop at telling someone what happened or recommending what to do next. It increasingly needs to understand the business context, determine the appropriate action, and orchestrate execution.


Context becomes critical

Celonis is an important example of this shift.

With its acquisition of Ikigai Labs and the introduction of the Celonis Context Model, Celonis is bringing together process intelligence, operational context, forecasting, simulation, and AI together.

The broader idea is that enterprises need more than language models to understand how work gets done. They need models that understand the relationships, dependencies, processes, and operational conditions surrounding business decisions.


The autonomous enterprise

As AI agents become embedded in enterprise workflows, decision intelligence becomes increasingly important.

Agents need context. They need recommendations. They need governance. And ultimately, they need a way to translate decisions into action. That makes decision intelligence less of a standalone AI capability and more of an emerging operating layer for the autonomous enterprise.

The companies that can connect context + decision + orchestration + execution will have a significant advantage as AI moves deeper into business operations.

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How Oracle Is Reinventing the Database for the AI Era

How Oracle Is Reinventing the Database for the AI Era

For years, enterprise databases have operated behind the scenes. They store the transactions, protect the data, and keep business applications running.

That role is changing.

As enterprises move from AI experimentation toward agentic AI and increasingly autonomous workflows, the database is becoming an active part of the AI architecture.

In this conversation, R “Ray” Wang and Holger Mueller unpack Oracle’s rapid pace of database innovation throughout 2026. The announcements span AI, security, availability, infrastructure, application development, and more. Together, they point to a larger shift in how Oracle sees the database in the AI era.


Keep the data. Bring AI to it.

One of Oracle’s clearest points of differentiation is its approach to transactional data.

Rather than moving transactional data into a separate data lakehouse to support AI, Oracle is keeping that data in the Oracle Database while using an AI data lakehouse for unstructured content. Oracle AI Vector Search can then vectorize that content and make the resulting vectors available alongside transactional data.

The architectural implication is significant.

Enterprises don't have to move critical transactional data simply to make it useful for AI. That means less data movement, fewer duplicated security models, and less rework for IT teams.

As Holger Mueller points out in the conversation, enterprise businesses still run on transactions. As agents increasingly interact with those systems, keeping the data layer secure and accessible becomes even more important.


Agents are changing database requirements

The rise of AI agents also changes the workload. Traditional enterprise systems were largely designed around human users. Humans go home at night. They take vacations. They don't execute thousands of tasks simultaneously.

Agents don't have the same limitations.

The conversation highlights an example where a contact center with roughly 2,000 human agents could eventually have close to 10,000 software agents interacting with the back-end system.

That creates a very different availability and performance challenge.

Oracle's Maximum Availability Architecture is designed to address that shift, including a Platinum tier with faster failover and a Diamond tier focused on even higher levels of availability.

AI agents don't just create new applications. They create new demands on the infrastructure underneath them.


Security has to move closer to the data

AI also changes the threat model. If agents can access and act on enterprise data, protecting the application layer alone isn't enough. Security needs to be closer to the underlying data itself.

Oracle's approach includes deep data security, role-based access, SQL Firewall, Database Vault, transparent data encryption, identity propagation, and centralized security capabilities.

The interview also highlights support for post-quantum cryptography, addressing the emerging risk of attackers harvesting encrypted data today to decrypt it later as quantum capabilities mature. The larger takeaway is that security can't be bolted onto AI after the fact.

It needs to be part of the architecture.


Bringing cloud economics on premises

Another notable development is Oracle AI Database Cloud@Customer.

The offering brings Oracle's database capabilities and cloud operating model to customers that still need to keep infrastructure on-premises because of data residency, compliance, performance, or other requirements.

That includes AI capabilities, vector search, agent development, high availability, and Oracle-managed infrastructure while keeping the environment on-premises.

For enterprises with hybrid requirements, this could be an important middle ground between traditional infrastructure and public cloud.


APEX takes AI into application development

Oracle's AI push isn't limited to the database engine.

APEX, Oracle's low-code/no-code application development platform, is also getting an AI-driven evolution through APEX Lang.

The concept is intent-driven development. Developers and business users can describe what they want an application or agent to do using natural language rather than starting with traditional coding workflows.

Because APEX is tightly integrated with the Oracle Database, the approach can work with existing data structures and access models, rather than requiring developers to generate code externally and retrofit it into an enterprise environment.

That could make AI-powered application development considerably more accessible while retaining the enterprise controls built into the database.


The bigger picture

Taken together, these announcements tell a larger story. Oracle isn't treating AI as just another feature layered on top of the database.

It's redesigning the database around an environment where agents, AI workloads, security, application development, and transactions increasingly converge.

That matters because enterprise AI ultimately has to do more than generate content or answer questions. It has to interact with the systems that run the business. And those systems still depend heavily on databases.

The companies that win the next phase of enterprise AI won't just have the best models. They'll have architectures that can securely connect those models and agents to enterprise data, execute decisions reliably, and operate at scale.

Oracle's 2026 database roadmap suggests the database may be moving from the infrastructure underneath AI to one of the places where AI actually happens.

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