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The Shifting Sands of AI: Why Enterprise Leaders Need to Look Beyond OpenAI

The Shifting Sands of AI: Why Enterprise Leaders Need to Look Beyond OpenAI

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A Rapidly Evolving Landscape; OpenAI's Disappearing Moat

We've been watching the generative AI landscape transform at breathtaking speed, and what concerns us most is how quickly the narrative around OpenAI has shifted from "unassailable market leader" to "company facing existential challenges." As leaders who have spent our careers at the intersection of technology, policy, and enterprise strategy, we believe that organizations making multi-million dollar AI investments need to understand the broader context beyond the marketing hype.

The concept of a "moat" in business refers to sustainable competitive advantages that protect a company from competitors. OpenAI's initial moat was built on first-mover advantage, technical superiority, and massive funding. All three pillars are now showing significant cracks.

Microsoft—OpenAI's primary backer—has began testing outside models from xAI, Meta, and even Chinese company DeepSeek. Simultaneously, Apple appears to be reconsidering its OpenAI partnership, now engaging with Google about Siri integration. These moves by two of the world's most valuable companies signal serious concerns about OpenAI's trajectory.

The technical superiority argument is also collapsing. OpenAI's rushed GPT-4.5 release shows a 30% error rate—significantly worse than both Anthropic's Claude 3.7 and xAI's Grok3. When your core product is underperforming relative to competitors, enterprise customers take notice.

 

Competition Is Intensifying; The Economics Don't Add Up

While OpenAI struggles, competitors are gaining momentum. Anthropic secured a $3 billion investment from Google and released Claude 3.7, which many consider technically superior to OpenAI's offerings. Elon Musk's xAI launched Grok3 with impressive deep research capabilities. Even OpenAI's former CTO, Mira Murati, launched Thinking Machines Lab and raised $2 billion at a $9 billion valuation in just two weeks.

And we can't ignore developments from China. Within the last few weeks,they announced what they described as the world's first fully autonomous AI agent, called Manus. Unlike some overhyped Western announcements, Chinese AI capabilities have generally delivered on their promises. This represents both competitive and geopolitical considerations for enterprise leaders.

The financial picture is equally concerning. OpenAI is reportedly burning through $1 billion monthly and could lose up to $44 billion by next year. Sam Altman himself admitted they lose money on every $200/month ChatGPT subscription. Their recent announcement of enterprise offerings priced between $2,000-$20,000 monthly appears to be a desperate attempt to stem these losses.

This pricing strategy reveals a company pivoting toward enterprise customers out of necessity rather than strength. But this market is already dominated by Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, who have decades-long relationships with Fortune 500 companies. OpenAI faces an uphill battle against entrenched competitors with deeper pockets and broader offerings.

Despite the recent headline-grabbing $40 billion funding round that catapulted OpenAI's valuation to $300 billion and reports that the company's revenue has grown by 30% in three months, the company still doesn't expect to break even until 2029—four years from now! This timeline raises serious questions about the sustainability of their business model, especially as they continue to burn through cash at an alarming rate.

In a telling strategic pivot, OpenAI has also announced plans to launch an open-weights reasoning model that developers can run on their own hardware. This represents a significant departure from their closed system subscription model and suggests an acknowledgment that their current approach may not remain competitive in the long term. This move appears to be a course correction in response to mounting pressure from both open-source alternatives and competitors offering more flexible deployment options.

 

Strategic Implications for Enterprise Leaders

For CEOs, CTOs, CIOs, and CMOs, these developments necessitate a more sophisticated approach to AI strategy. The days of simply "partnering with OpenAI" as a complete AI strategy are over. We believe enterprise leaders need to consider:

  • Geopolitical factors: How will US-China tensions affect your AI supply chain? What regulatory frameworks are emerging in different regions?

  • Economic sustainability: Are your AI partners financially viable for the long term? What happens if they significantly raise prices or pivot their business models?

  • Technical diversification: How can you build an AI architecture that isn't dependent on a single provider?

Enterprise clients can implement what we call a "multi-modal, multi-model" approach. This means leveraging different AI models for different use cases and maintaining the flexibility to switch providers as the landscape evolves. The companies that will win in the AI era aren't those that pick the "right" vendor today, but those that build adaptable AI architectures.

OpenAI's current valuation approaching $300 billion seems increasingly disconnected from economic reality. While they deserve credit for catalyzing the current AI revolution, enterprise leaders need to recognize that we're entering a new phase where multiple players will drive innovation.

The next 18 months will be critical. We'll see consolidation among smaller AI companies, continued heavy investment from tech giants, and potentially surprising moves from nation-states viewing AI as critical infrastructure. Enterprise leaders need to stay informed not just about the technology, but about these broader market and geopolitical dynamics.

The bottom line for enterprise leaders: your AI strategy needs to be as sophisticated as the technology itself

Look beyond the hype, consider the full spectrum of factors at play, and build flexibility into your approach. We believe the latest "wave" of the current AI revolution is just beginning, and the winners will be those who navigate its complexities with clear-eyed strategic thinking.

 

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The Right AI for the Right Job: Pega's Tara DeZao on Marketing's AI Maturity Curve

The Right AI for the Right Job: Pega's Tara DeZao on Marketing's AI Maturity Curve

Every year at PegaWorld, Constellation Analyst Liz Miller sits down with a Pegasystems leader, Tara DeZao, for what's become an annual tradition: a candid, marketer-to-marketer conversation about where AI hype ends, and real value begins. This year's conversation cut through a lot of noise and surfaced a few hard truths every enterprise marketing leader should hear.


Outputs Are Not Outcomes

The line that anchored the entire conversation: just because an AI model answers correctly doesn't mean the business has moved forward. Too many organizations are conflating AI outputs - a generated email, a summarized report, a chatbot response - with actual business outcomes like customer lifetime value and sustainable growth.

DeZao's advice: lead with the outcome you want to achieve, then work backward to the right AI for the job. Not every problem needs a model. Some need a new messaging strategy, a partnership, or simply better alignment across teams.

The Martech Stack Is Finally Shrinking

For years, Constellation's analysts have predicted consolidation in marketing technology. This year, DeZao confirmed it's actually happening: enterprises are pursuing vendor takeout, fewer point solutions, and fewer data silos. It's a validating moment for a thesis the industry has held for a long time but rarely seen executed at scale.

It Was Never a Data Problem

Perhaps the most important observation from the conversation: what looks like a data problem or a systems problem is, more often than not, a process problem. CRM promised to solve this in the early 2000s. The Customer Data Platform promised it again a decade later. AI is now closing that workflow gap, not by replacing the systems that came before, but by finally making them work together the way marketers always intended.

Compliance as an Enabler, Not a Blocker

One of the more counterintuitive points: centralizing compliance and governance doesn't slow marketers down; it frees them up. When guardrails are built into the system rather than bolted on after a mistake, marketers in regulated industries can test and learn at a level of granularity that used to be impossible. Decision Hub's approach to centralized compliance lets teams experiment with confidence instead of asking forgiveness.

The Secret Sauce AI Still Can't Replicate

AI can absorb the technical expertise no single marketer can hold in their head, the latest trends, backend configurations, channel mechanics. What it can't replace is the experience, taste, and relationships built over a career. Marketing remains fundamentally relational, and that won't change no matter how sophisticated the tooling becomes.

Stop Talking About Speed

Perhaps the most pointed takeaway from the conversation: enterprises need to stop bragging about how fast they built an agent or launched a workflow. Velocity is not the outcome. In fact, over-indexing on speed risks giving marketing teams a false sense of failure, as if they're behind when, in reality, most organizations are still early on a long maturity curve.

The Bottom Line

AI's promise in marketing isn't about doing more, faster. It's about finally solving the process and workflow problems that CRM and CDP investments never fully closed, while keeping the judgment, taste, and guardrails that protect the brand firmly in human hands. That's the realistic, pragmatic view of AI that Constellation Research continues to advocate for, and it's exactly the conversation our analysts are having with enterprise leaders across every industry.

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Context Washing, AI Agents & Qualcomm's Big Bet | CRTV Episode 133

Context Washing, AI Agents & Qualcomm's Big Bet | CRTV Episode 133

Episode 133 of ConstellationTV brought together analysts and industry leaders to tackle some of the most pressing questions in enterprise AI, from whether "context" is becoming meaningless marketing language to how Qualcomm is making a serious play for the data center.

The Context Washing Debate

Every major AI vendor now has a "context strategy." Snowflake, Databricks, SAP, Microsoft — they all claim it. But ask ten vendors what context actually means, and you'll get ten different answers: metadata, semantic layers, knowledge graphs, vector databases, memory, catalogs.

Constellation analysts Mike Ni, Holger Mueller, and Esteban Kolsky went head-to-head on whether context is a genuine architectural shift or the next AI buzzword. Mueller argued that while context is logically necessary, it's technically unfeasible at the scale vendors are promising; real-time context querying across complex enterprise environments requires infrastructure most organizations simply don't have yet. Kolsky agreed with the architecture challenge but argued that the solution lies in scoping the context to specific, bounded use cases rather than trying to solve it universally. Ni framed the takeaway: context is both marketing and necessary, but what the market currently has is not sufficient. Enterprises are context washing today — but this is where the next major AI control point will emerge.

OpenText: AI Agents as Network Managers

John Radko, SVP of Product Development at OpenText, joined to discuss how business networks are evolving. The core insight: AI isn't simply making transactions faster — it's beginning to actively manage the complex ecosystems that connect thousands of companies.

Radko described the near-term deployment of AI agents that help clients onboard partners faster, detect issues, and resolve them more quickly. Looking further ahead, OpenText envisions agents operating as the first line of defense — managing trading communities autonomously, as demonstrated by a recent deployment with a major automaker where an agent detected a file failure and automatically re-sent it once the issue was resolved.

His advice for enterprises: treat your business network as a platform and consolidate as much as possible into a single infrastructure. As agentic AI rolls out, it will leverage APIs and interfaces across your stack, but fragmented infrastructure will slow you down.

AI in Marketing: Less Stack, More Process

Liz Miller sat down with Tara DeZao of Pegasystems to discuss what AI is actually doing for marketing leaders right now. The headline: martech stacks are finally shrinking. After years of point-solution proliferation, enterprises are consolidating, and Pega's Customer Decision Hub is benefiting.

DeZao pointed to two standout capabilities: gap detection, where an AI agent proactively identifies underserved audiences and surfaces new opportunities mid-campaign; and centralized compliance, which lets marketers in regulated industries experiment more freely because guardrails are built in rather than bolted on after the fact.

The bigger takeaway: most AI failures in marketing aren't data problems or model problems. They're process problems. AI is most valuable when it's solving workflow challenges, not strategy questions.

Qualcomm's Data Center Bet

Holger Mueller closed the episode with his takeaways from Qualcomm's Investors Day. Qualcomm is making a significant move: from silicon and IP licensing toward platform-as-a-service, with data center infrastructure as the new revenue frontier.

The three-stage plan starts with connectivity offerings available now, moves to the Xi Accelerator for inference workloads, and extends to a CPU based on Orion infrastructure arriving in 2028. The headline acquisition: Modula, purchased for nearly $4 billion. Modula's compiler technology claims to run NVIDIA workloads more efficiently than NVIDIA itself does, which, if true, would have major implications for cloud vendors and enterprise AI infrastructure costs.

Physical AI rounds out the picture: Qualcomm has nearly swept automotive design wins and is expanding into industrial IoT and robotics. The ambition is clear: become the platform layer that powers AI wherever it runs.


Episode 133 makes one thing clear: enterprise AI is moving fast, but the real work isn't in picking the flashiest model or the loudest vendor; it's in getting the foundations right. Context, trust, governance, consolidation. The enterprises that nail those unsexy building blocks are the ones that will actually scale.

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Resilience, AI, and What It Means to Be Human Next | DisrupTV Ep 444

Resilience, AI, and What It Means to Be Human Next | DisrupTV Ep 444

Resilience, AI, and What It Means to Be Human Next | DisrupTV Ep 444

AI is no longer about tools and dashboards. It’s about outcomes, resilience, and the future of human capability itself — and we still have a window to shape how that future unfolds.

Key Takeaways

  • AI is the Industrial Revolution on fast-forward. The projected impact is 10x the Industrial Revolution at 1/10 the time — a compression that makes this feel like a tsunami, not a wave.
  • Busy is not the same as productive. Many organizations are burning tokens without creating outcomes. AI adoption must be measured in business results, not activity or pilot volume.
  • The software model is shifting from tools to outcomes. Customers now expect vendors to own a share of the result, not just the tool. Post-sale is where 90% of the real work begins.
  • Your job is to feed agents work, not compete with them. AI-native hiring means training people to design work for agents — not to manually execute every step themselves.
  • The real moat is the 10% that is vertically differentiated. When everyone has access to the same horizontal AI capabilities, vertical depth, customer intimacy, and outcome-focused execution are the only defensible advantages.
  • Resilience in the AI era must start with institutions, not individuals. AI is embedded in how we see, are ranked, and are judged. Individuals alone cannot counterbalance those forces — we need reinvented and new institutions to do it.
  • AI literacy is table stakes. Existential literacy is what’s next. People need to learn how to remain agents on their own behalf in a world dense with AI mediation — and how to find purpose when traditional work roles shift radically.
  • AI may eat our solitude. We are approaching a world where it is always possible to be entertained, accompanied, or coached by a digital companion — and solitude, essential to creativity and reflection, becomes harder to preserve.
  • Friction is our friend. Deliberate pause points in AI-augmented workflows — to check intuitions, reflect on values, and question what we don’t know — may be essential to staying human.
  • We are the last generation that will know what human capability felt like before AI. That is both a warning and an invitation to shape this transition while we still can.

Part 1: AI at the Enterprise Front Line — Outcomes, Agents, and the 90/10 Rule

TVN Reddy opens with a framing that sets the tone for the episode: AI will do for the digital world what the Industrial Revolution did for the physical one. Unlike that earlier transformation, which unfolded across decades, the projected impact of AI is described as 10x the Industrial Revolution at 1/10 the time. That compression of impact is what makes this moment feel like a tsunami rather than a wave.

Reddy sees this dynamic firsthand across Aptean’s more than 10,000 customers, split roughly between North America and Europe. Their AI adoption falls along a spectrum. Some are all-in, pushing hard to use AI to its fullest within months. Others are just starting, experimenting with a couple of agents and learning before they scale. But almost everyone is feeling the same pressure: board-level expectations, competitive fear, and the nagging question of whether they are actually getting business value from any of it.

The Action Trap: Burning Tokens Without Outcomes

Reddy describes a pattern he sees repeatedly across customers — what he calls the action trap. Leadership says we need to adopt AI. Teams rush in and start using ChatGPT or other large language models. Six months later, someone asks whether the organization is using AI. The answer is yes. Then comes the harder question: what business outcomes have we actually achieved? Often, there isn’t a clear answer.

“Organizations are busy experimenting, but busy is not the same as productive. They’re burning tokens, not necessarily creating value.”

Reddy’s point is direct: AI adoption must be measured in outcomes, not activity. The number of pilots running, the volume of prompts sent, the tools deployed — none of these are the metric that matters.

From Selling Tools to Selling Outcomes

This leads to one of the biggest structural shifts discussed in the episode: the move from selling software as a tool to selling software and AI as an outcomes partnership.

Traditionally, enterprise software followed a familiar pattern. The vendor sells a tool, the customer implements their own processes inside it, the software collects data and produces dashboards and reports, and the customer is left to interpret everything and realize the value on their own. In that world, as Vala put it, the marriage experience was not necessarily better than the courtship. After the sale, the vendor was often 80 to 90 percent done.

With AI and digital labor, that model breaks. Customers now expect vendors to own a share of the outcome, not just the tool. Aptean is moving toward revenue-share and outcome-based models in some cases, where the software, AI, and services are bundled together — if the customer’s business grows, Aptean grows; if not, they don’t.

Concrete outcome targets Aptean focuses on for verticals like food and beverage and logistics include increasing inventory turns, reducing waste especially for perishables, minimizing fuel costs in routing, improving demand and supply prediction, and expanding margins without simply adding headcount or capital expenditure.

That demands an entirely different go-to-market motion. Sales is no longer about throwing a tool over the wall. Post-sale is where 90% of the real work begins, and teams must evolve from what Vala described as mercenaries to missionaries — standing with the customer, not across from them.

Hiring for an AI-Native Future: Feed Work to Agents

Ray asked how this changes hiring, especially in engineering. Reddy’s answer flips the conventional mindset entirely.

“Your job is to feed agents work, not to do the work.”

Aptean is hiring AI-native engineers straight from college with a very specific orientation: they are trained to design work for agents, not to manually execute every step themselves. Interns are given problems to solve, not recipes to follow. The company pairs deep domain experts — in food and beverage, distribution, manufacturing — with younger AI-native engineers who have been building and playing with agents since before graduation. The result is a vertical AI-native company capable of capturing both industry nuance and technical acceleration at the same time.

Data: Important — But Don’t Wait Forever

On data, Reddy acknowledges the classic concern: garbage in, garbage out. But he pushes back against the idea that organizations must freeze their AI efforts until every dataset is perfect.

For decision intelligence, clean and trustworthy data is genuinely critical. But for workflow automation and orchestration, you can often get started while you consolidate and modernize systems and use AI itself to help clean and validate data over time.

He emphasizes the value of ecosystems of agents rather than single agents working in isolation. One agent might produce an initial output that is 60 percent correct. Other agents and human reviewers act as critics and validators, iterating until quality reaches 95 to 99 percent. These agents can detect anomalies, flag unusual spikes, and help curate better data continuously. AI is not just a generator, in Reddy’s framing — it is also the best critic you can deploy against your own logic, assumptions, and data quality.

The 90/10 Rule: Where the Real Moat Lives

Reddy offers a useful mental model for differentiation in an AI-saturated world: the 90/10 rule. Ninety percent of the stack is horizontal and rapidly commoditizing — ledgers, invoices, cash collection, and access to the same underlying large language models. Ten percent is vertically differentiated: deep domain-specific functionality, embedded industry expertise, specialized data sets and workflows, and long-standing customer relationships built on trust. That 10 percent creates 90 percent of the value.

When every company in a sector has access to the same horizontal AI capabilities, the only real moat becomes vertical depth, customer intimacy, and outcome-focused execution.

Reddy carries this same lens into M&A. Aptean often acquires smaller vertical leaders, and the non-negotiable criterion is that they must be number one or number two in their specific niche. That positioning signals pricing power, strong retention, clear customer value, and a defensible micro-moat. Everything else — product gaps, scaling challenges — is more tractable if that core positioning is sound.

Part 2: Societal Resilience — Institutions, Existential Literacy, and the Loss of Solitude

The second half of the episode shifts from enterprise software to societal resilience with Lee Rainie, who spent nearly a quarter century at Pew Research leading internet and technology studies and producing more than 850 reports across the internet and broadband revolution, the mobile revolution, the social media revolution, and now AI.

At Elon University’s Imagining the Digital Future Center, his latest work centers on a deceptively simple question: how will humans cope with the disruptions that AI brings? Initially, Rainie and his team focused on individual resilience — how people personally handle trauma, setbacks, and change. But as they canvassed experts, the emphasis shifted in a direction that surprised them.

The consensus among experts was that resilience in the AI era must start with institutions, not individuals. AI systems are now deeply embedded in daily life — they mediate what we see, what we are offered, how we are ranked and judged. Individuals alone cannot counterbalance or shape those impacts. We will need reinvented institutions across education, governance, work, and media, and likely entirely new institutions focused on AI oversight and accountability, human dignity and agency, and guardrails that protect society while enabling innovation.

This is particularly challenging because trust in institutions is at historic lows, especially in the United States — precisely when we need them most.

Beyond AI Literacy: Toward Existential Literacy

AI literacy — understanding how tools work, how to prompt, how to interpret outputs — is now table stakes. Several experts in Rainie’s research argued we need to go further, into what they called existential literacy.

That means teaching people how to remain agents on their own behalf in a world dense with AI mediation, how to find purpose when traditional work roles and incentives shift radically, and how to build and sustain communities in an environment where AI agents are acting as social proxies, negotiating with other agents, and interacting in ways that may be opaque to us.

This intersects directly with the human capabilities Rainie’s research highlights as most durable: social and emotional intelligence, creativity and curiosity, critical thinking and pattern recognition, and metacognition — the ability to think about our own thinking, biases, and knowledge gaps. The question for education systems is how to deliberately cultivate these traits rather than simply assuming they will emerge on their own.

Agents, Social Complexity, and the Loss of Solitude

Rainie points out that humans are historically wired to manage roughly 150 close relationships — the classic Dunbar’s number. The internet pushed that closer to 600. With agents and social AI, the scale of interactions multiplies again: our agents will interact with others’ agents, new points of entry to influence or manipulate us will appear, and social complexity will explode in ways we have no prior framework to navigate.

One prediction from his research stood out: AI may not just consume our attention — it may consume our solitude. We are approaching a world where it is always possible to be entertained, accompanied, coached, or guided by some form of digital companion. Solitude — unstructured, offline time to be alone with our own thoughts, to reflect, to be bored, to engage directly with our physical environment and a small set of human beings — becomes harder to preserve.

Given how central solitude is to creativity, reflection, and mental health, this is not a trivial externality. It is a fundamental shift in the texture of human experience.

Friction Is Our Friend: Rediscovering Practical Wisdom

Another key insight from Rainie’s research connects to Aristotle’s concept of phronesis — practical wisdom gained through lived experience. Many experts argued that in the AI era, friction is our friend.

We will need deliberate pauses in AI-augmented workflows: moments to check our intuitions, reflect on values, and question what we don’t know. We will need AI systems that build these pause points in — prompting us to reconsider assumptions, encouraging metacognition, and highlighting uncertainty and blind spots rather than concealing them.

Vala echoed this from his own practice, describing how he uses AI not just to accelerate answers but to pressure test his thinking — and how learning to receive that feedback with humility has become a discipline in itself. In a world chasing speed and automation at every turn, intentional friction may be essential to staying human.

Relationship Design, Not Just Process Design

Vala brings the conversation back to the enterprise with a framing that recontextualizes everything discussed in the first half. At Salesforce, after 12 years of AI work and two years focused specifically on agentic and digital labor, the pattern is clear: when you redesign a process to be agentic, you free up human labor, must reskill those people, and then redeploy them into new roles. That triggers budget, organizational, and power shifts — who owns the people now, who owns the dollars?

None of that is primarily technical. It is relational: manager to manager, team to team, human to agent, and human to human in entirely new configurations. His warning is direct: if most of your job is transactional, deterministic, repetitive, and low-impact, you are highly exposed to automation. The durable work is relational, creative, strategic, judgment-heavy, and non-deterministic.

That suggests leaders must practice what Vala calls relationship design: deliberately thinking through how humans and machines co-create value, how humans retain agency and meaning in their work, and how we avoid wasting decades of human potential on work that could have been automated much sooner.

Final Thoughts

DisrupTV Episode 444 closes with a line from researcher Mel Sellick at Arizona State University that Rainie’s team used as the tagline of their report:

“We are the last generation that will know what human capability felt like before it became inseparable from AI.”

It is both a warning and an invitation. A warning that the coming shift is irreversible and profound. An invitation that we still have a window — right now — to shape how this integration happens, through smarter institutions, better guardrails, deeper human skills, outcome-focused use of AI, and a renewed focus on what it means to live a good human life in an agentic world.

TVN Reddy and Lee Rainie approach this from very different vantage points — one from the front lines of enterprise software, one from two and a half decades of research into how technology reshapes society. But they arrive at the same conclusion. The organizations and societies that will navigate this era well are not those with the most tools or the fastest pilots. They are those that stay relentlessly focused on outcomes, build institutions strong enough to protect human agency, and never lose sight of the human being at the center of every process they automate.

The question is not whether AI will transform everything. It will. The question is whether we will be intentional enough, humble enough, and structurally prepared enough to shape that transformation toward human flourishing rather than away from it.

Related Episodes

If you found Episode 444 valuable, here are a few others that align in theme or extend similar conversations:

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From “activation energy” and agent orchestration to donkeycorns and relationship capital, DisrupTV 425 explains what actually separates AI hype from real business impact.

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Pegasystem's Ken Stillwell on Tokenomics and Outcome-Based AI

Pegasystem's Ken Stillwell on Tokenomics and Outcome-Based AI

Somewhere along the way, the AI industry started keeping score by the wrong number. Token leaderboards, token maxing, ever-larger consumption as a badge of sophistication. In a recent conversation with Constellation Research, Pega's COO and CFO, Ken Stillwell, argued that this scoreboard was rigged from the start and that the smarter path forward is to stop measuring activity and start measuring value.

Speaking with Liz Miller, VP and Principal Analyst at Constellation Research, Stillwell laid out a refreshingly blunt view of AI economics from the seat of the person who has to answer for both cost and results.

Nobody should be surprised that AI is expensive

Stillwell's starting point is almost disarmingly simple: you have to pay for the capacity you use, and that capacity is not cheap. The industry is spending trillions on infrastructure that will need to be refreshed every year or two. Many assumed the cost would fall quickly. Instead, it has climbed.

But expensive is not the same as wasteful. Things that cost money can still deliver enormous value. The problem is not the price tag. The problem is paying for value you never actually receive.

Who built the leaderboards, and why

Here, Stillwell makes his most pointed observation. Token leaderboards were created by the very companies that profit when you consume more tokens. It should surprise no one that AI model providers want you to use a lot of their product. And it should surprise no one that the companies with nothing to gain from token maxing were never the ones promoting it.

Those leaderboards faded fast once a few voices in the market pointed out how backward the whole exercise was. The lasting question is the more useful one: how do you connect the value of AI to its cost?

AI is a utility, so treat it like one

Stillwell's preferred analogy is electricity. AI is a powerful utility, and like any utility, you use it when you need it. You don't leave the air conditioning running with the windows open. You don't cool an empty house to 65 degrees for two weeks when no one is home. These are intuitions people already carry through their daily lives, and Stillwell believes organizations will develop the same instincts for tokens and AI.

That mindset leads to a more deliberate approach. In design work, for example, token use is heavy but concentrated and short-term, because you are not designing forever. There, it can make sense to lean in hard, because faster iteration and faster decisions are worth the spend. The value of the acceleration justifies the cost.

Right-size the model to the task

Not every job needs a frontier model. Using the most advanced, most expensive model for a simple probabilistic task is its own form of waste. Part of a disciplined AI strategy is knowing when a more static, less costly model will do the job perfectly well.

Just as important is knowing where AI does not belong at all. Stillwell draws a clear line: anywhere a human would otherwise make a judgment, do analysis, or reason is in scope for AI. But in a deterministic workflow built specifically to remove human judgment, introducing that judgment back in does not help. The entire reason the system exists is to avoid it.

The confusion at the heart of the market: outputs vs. outcomes

The conversation's sharpest point is a distinction that Stillwell and Miller both see being blurred across the industry: outcomes versus outputs. Plenty of vendors promise outcome-based pricing, then define the outcome as something like the model returning an answer without hallucinating. Stillwell argues that it is not an outcome at all. It is an output, and frankly, one you should expect to be correct every single time simply by virtue of doing business with them.

A real business outcome is something you have to step back and define. For Pega, that means a completed case: a loan origination, a client onboarding, a dispute, a fraud investigation. The kernel of work that actually needs to get done, ideally automated end-to-end. The value is in completing that work, not in racking up activity along the way.

Stillwell frames it as the difference between activity-based and outcome-based measures. Activity-based metering, counting microtransactions at various skew levels, makes sense when you are selling raw cloud compute. But value-added work is different. He points out how telecom and internet pricing evolved away from counting minutes and toward simply providing access. The lesson for AI is the same. Tokens measure how much processing is happening, not the value being created. And that disconnect is exactly the trap.


The takeaway

Stillwell's message lands as a useful corrective for any leader feeling pressure to prove AI maturity through sheer consumption. Pay for value, not activity. Match the tool to the job. Know where AI helps and where it doesn't. And above all, get clear on the difference between an output you should take for granted and an outcome worth paying for.

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The Invisible Infrastructure of Commerce: OpenText's John Radko on Business Networks and the Rise of AI Agents

The Invisible Infrastructure of Commerce: OpenText's John Radko on Business Networks and the Rise of AI Agents

Every day, companies exchange an enormous flow of information with their partners. Purchase orders, sales orders, shipping notices, invoices, and countless other documents move between organizations in a constant stream. It is, as OpenText's John Radko puts it, the lifeblood of commerce. And most of the time, it happens invisibly.

In a recent conversation with Constellation analyst Chirag Mehta, John Radko, Senior Vice President of Product Development at OpenText, explained what makes that flow possible, why it is so much harder than most people assume, and how AI is beginning to change the picture.


The problem business networks solve

The core challenge is simple to state and difficult to solve: companies need to talk to each other, but no two companies are alike. They run different systems, different generations of technology, and different data formats. Even when two organizations use the same document standard, they often apply it differently, including omitting values or relying on entirely different versions.

The result is that a single process, something as routine as placing an order, can look ten different ways across ten different partners. A business network exists to mediate all of that complexity, connecting organizations and keeping information moving reliably between them.

And the complexity does not hold still. As Radko notes, the moment a company changes its ERP system or adjusts how it handles receipt of goods, that change can cascade across its entire partner ecosystem. The network has to absorb that constant motion.

Onboarding and the build-versus-buy question

Getting partners connected is one of the central capabilities OpenText offers. Smaller companies without communication gateways might connect via a web interface, while large enterprises connect directly to SAP or Oracle. Increasingly, mid-market companies are connecting via cloud ERP platforms such as NetSuite and Microsoft Dynamics.

So why not just build all of this in-house? Radko is refreshingly candid here. There is very little, he says, that clients could not do for themselves, just as they could run their own logistics or cater their own events. The real question is whether it makes business sense. For most organizations, B2B integration is not anyone's full-time job. For OpenText's business network team, it is the only job. That focus, combined with purpose-built technology like the Trading Grid platform and years of refined processes, is where the economies of scale come from.

Managing at scale

When customers are processing hundreds of thousands of data exchanges a day, things inevitably go wrong. A partner goes offline, then comes back and tries to retry thousands of pending transactions at once. Handling that without overwhelming the system requires more than connectivity and data transformation.

That is why a large share of OpenText's software investment goes into what Radko calls community management: software that monitors transaction flow, lets customers manage their partners, and surfaces problems quickly. Their TG Insights product, for example, lets customers search through millions of documents to find a specific transaction, while automatically alerting them to failures across their system.

From acceleration to transformation with AI

On AI, Radko frames the journey in two stages: it begins with acceleration and ends with transformation. Today, AI is speeding up nearly everything OpenText does, from onboarding partners and translating data to resolving issues and detecting changes across the network.

The bigger shift is still ahead. OpenText is deploying AI agents that help clients manage their communities, onboard partners faster, and resolve issues more quickly. Looking forward, Radko sees agents acting as managers of the community and a genuine first line of defense. He points to a recent capability rolled out with a major automaker, where the system detects a file failure and automatically resends the file once the underlying issue is resolved. Simple on the surface, but it requires real knowledge of what is happening across the network to know when the retry will actually succeed.

Radko believes the majority of e-commerce and B2B activity will eventually be performed by agents, a view increasingly shared across the software industry as the conversation shifts from end users to agents.

One piece of advice

Asked what he would tell organizations to do right now, Radko's answer is direct: treat partner connectivity as a platform. Consolidate as much as possible onto a single infrastructure, because every partner you connect to the network unlocks all the capabilities of that network. As agentic AI rolls out, it will work through the interfaces and APIs available across your services, so the more partners and processes you bring into one place, the more scale and momentum you can build.

In other words, the groundwork organizations lay today will determine how ready they are for an agent-driven future. The business networks that do the invisible work of commerce are about to get much more intelligent.

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Winning with AI by Becoming Data Inspired | DisrupTV Ep 443

Winning with AI by Becoming Data Inspired | DisrupTV Ep 443

Winning with AI by Becoming Data Inspired | DisrupTV Ep 443

Winning with AI isn't a technology problem. It's a leadership, culture, and strategy problem rooted in how organizations actually use data to drive change.

Key Takeaways

  • AI is a leadership test, not a tech rollout. Organizations that hand AI to IT and ask them to “find something to do with it” almost always stall at pilots. AI should serve business strategy, not sit beside it.
  • Kill your pilots. Endless departmental pilots create the illusion of progress. Winners pick a small number of high-value, cross-functional initiatives and treat them as enterprise bets.
  • Speed is the new moat. Everyone has access to similar cloud infrastructure and foundation models. The real differentiator is how fast your people, processes, and operating model can adapt.
  • AI is value reclamation, not just cost cutting. The better question isn’t “how many people can I cut” — it’s “what new capabilities and services become possible” when you 10x your team’s capacity.
  • AI fluency has four building blocks. Mindset, skill set, tool set, and decision set. Most organizations provide tools and skip the time and psychological safety needed for real fluency to take hold.
  • When everyone owns AI, no one does. Organizations need a clear AI value owner ensuring a coherent roadmap and helping every employee answer where the company is headed and what their role is in getting there.
  • The purpose of data is change — not dashboards. If data isn’t changing decisions, behaviors, or how the business runs, the expensive tech stack behind it isn’t earning its keep.
  • Three myths undermine data-driven decisions. Data is not objective, it does not speak for itself, and it rarely provides clean, definitive answers. Pretending otherwise sets organizations up for disappointment.
  • Culture determines whether data can change minds. Psychological safety, rewarding constructive dissent, and visible leadership humility matter more than any dashboard.

Part 1: AI Is Not a Tech Program. It's a Strategy and Leadership Test.

Charlene Li opens with a blunt assessment: most organizations underperform with AI because they treat it as a technology rollout, not a strategic, leadership-driven transformation.

Many organizations toss AI over to IT and ask them to go find something to do with it, instead of leading with business strategy and rethinking how decisions and workflows will actually change. Her core argument is that AI is a leadership and strategy challenge, not a tooling challenge. Leaders who abdicate AI to IT without owning the vision and value agenda almost always stall at pilots — because the real work is organizational adaptation, not just tech adoption.

One of her favorite examples of a sound approach is a strategy document that listed six traditional strategic objectives, then added a seventh: we will use AI to achieve the first six. That framing is the shift — AI should serve business strategy, not be a separate AI strategy off to the side.

Kill Your Pilots: Why “Pilot Purgatory” Destroys Momentum

Li doesn’t mince words on the way most enterprises do AI: endless pilots across departments, no real scaling, no enterprise-level value, and leaders declaring progress simply because they’re running lots of pilots.

“Kill all your pilots.”

Her prescription is to stop boasting about pilot volume — that’s just messing around — and instead pick a small number of high-value, cross-functional initiatives tied directly to strategic objectives. Treat these as enterprise bets, not departmental experiments.

She names a widespread AI hesitancy gap: on one side, excitement, FOMO, and pressure from boards, customers, and employees; on the other, fear of risk, speed of change, and uncertainty — what she jokingly labels FOGY, fear of getting in. Leaders caught in this gap become spectators rather than participants. The organizations that win are those whose leaders step into the mess, champion AI personally, and move decisively from pilots to production value.

Speed Is the New Moat: Why First Movers Win (Again)

Citing investor and AI thinker Vikram Mahidhar, Li argues that speed is the new moat in AI. Everyone can access similar cloud infrastructure and foundation models, and many enterprises are already rich in internal data. The differentiator is how fast you can adapt the organization — people, processes, governance, and operating model.

Li connects this to her long-standing work on disruption: disruptive growth is never incremental. Any outsized growth path will be messy, non-linear, and uncomfortable. AI amplifies this dynamic — it forces relational transformation, redefining roles, workflows, KPIs, and skills all at once.

Vala Afshar underscores this from his own vantage point inside a large AI-driven company, noting it is going through the messiest period in its 27-year history — not just because of the technology itself, but because of the sheer scale of reskilling, process redesign, and organizational change required.

In this environment, traditional distinctions between strategy and operations collapse. As R "Ray" Wang puts it, they are now effectively the same thing because the feedback loops are so fast.

Beyond Cost Cutting: AI as Value Reclamation and Capability Expansion

Much of the classic AI narrative focuses on efficiency and headcount reduction: do more with less, expand margins, cut jobs. Both Afshar and Li push back hard on that framing.

Li describes how many leaders initially think: if I can 10x my people, I can fire the other nine. She argues this is entirely the wrong plane of thinking. The better question is: if we can 10x ten people, how do we get 100x value? What new capabilities and services become possible?

She highlights Connect Up, a call-center company, as a case study. Instead of using AI to cut agents, they reduced error rates by 85 to 90 percent with co-pilots, shortened time-to-proficiency for new hires by 30 to 40 percent, freed agents from routine tasks to focus on higher-value engagement, and built entirely new services for clients — like analyzing non-performing loans for law firms in minutes instead of months. Importantly, they committed to increasing headcount by 5% over two years, not shrinking it.

Afshar reinforces this with his own language of value reclamation: AI can reclaim value that used to be ignored for economic or capacity reasons. By offloading low-impact, deterministic work to machines, leaders can finally invest human talent in activities they previously had no bandwidth to pursue. The mindset shift is from subtraction — efficiency only — to addition: new revenue, new experiences, new capabilities.

Building an AI-Fluent Workforce

Li outlines four building blocks for AI fluency. Mindset — curiosity, openness to change, willingness to experiment, and comfort with never being on top of everything as the space evolves. Skill set — knowing what AI can and cannot do, and the ability to frame problems in ways AI can help solve. Tool set — access to AI capabilities embedded in day-to-day workflows, with practical training on the tools employees actually use. And decision set, or governance — clear rules and processes for responsible, ethical, and sustainable usage, with guardrails that are understood and actionable, not just policy documents.

She compares AI fluency to learning chopsticks: at first it feels awkward and unnatural, but over time you stop noticing the tool and simply flow. The inflection point arrives when you start using AI to ask how you should use AI to help you do this task better.

Most organizations, she notes, provide some tools, minimal training, and almost no time to practice. Without deliberate time and psychological safety to experiment, true fluency never emerges.

The Case for an AI Value Owner

Afshar raises a structural question: should companies appoint a Chief AI Officer, or embed AI value owners within each business line?

Li’s concept of an AI value owner is less about title and more about function. Everyone in the organization owns a piece of the AI puzzle — HR owns the future workforce, GTM owns customer experience, Finance owns token and compute economics. But when everyone owns AI, no one truly does.

The AI value owner wakes up every day ensuring there is a coherent, enterprise-level AI roadmap, that functions are aligned and moving at a similar tempo — no jackrabbits sprinting ahead and no turtles dragging behind — and that the roadmap is updated frequently, at least quarterly and often continuously.

This person also helps every employee answer three questions: what future are we heading toward, what is our strategy to get from today to that future, and what is my role in making that strategy a success? In Li’s view, until leaders across the organization can clearly articulate these answers, the AI value owner has more work to do.

Part 2: From Data Frustration to Data Inspiration

In the second half of the episode, Sebastian Wernicke shifts the lens from AI back to its foundation: data and culture.

For years, leaders have been told that data is the new oil, and that big data, analytics, machine learning, and digitalization will transform everything. Yet survey results remain stubbornly consistent: nearly all leaders say data and AI are a top priority, and about two-thirds admit they are not satisfied with the value they’re actually getting.

This persistent gap breeds data frustration — we’re spending a lot but not seeing transformative impact — and data cynicism — we tried that, it never really worked for us. Wernicke argues this is not primarily a tooling issue. It is a cultural and decision-making issue.

Data's True Purpose: Change, Not Dashboards

Wernicke urges leaders to ask a simple but profound question: what is the purpose of data? The conventional answer is to generate insights we can use. His answer is more direct: the purpose of data is change — change in decisions, change in behaviors, change in how the business is run.

“If data isn't changing how you operate, you don't need the expensive tech stack, data cleaning, or analytics infrastructure you've built.”

He highlights a core misconception he calls the data deficit theory: the belief that if we just bring the right data to the right people at the right time, good decisions will automatically follow. Decades of psychology research say otherwise. When we’re deeply invested in a belief or direction, we do not naturally turn to data to disconfirm it — instead, we question the data’s quality, criticize the analyst, or rationalize the result. Without a culture of inquiry and safety, data rarely overturns strongly held assumptions.

Three Myths of Data That Undermine Decision-Making

Wernicke identifies three common myths that sit behind the dream of being data driven.

Myth one: data is objective. In reality, data is a compression of reality. Every metric — even something as simple as active customers — reflects choices about who counts as a customer, what active means, and over what time window. Those design decisions matter enormously when interpreting and acting on data.

Myth two: data speaks for itself. Even a simple question like which show is best, based on user ratings, has multiple defensible answers — the highest average rating, the most ratings overall for reliability, or the fewest worst ratings to minimize bad experiences. Each definition yields a different winner, all justified logically. Without clear definitions upfront, data-driven decisions can be steered toward any preferred outcome.

Myth three: data provides clear, definitive answers. In real analytics, you quickly leave the world of simple counts and enter statistics — probabilities, confidence intervals, likelihoods. Executives often want a binary answer, left or right, but data typically says something closer to option B is 70% likely to be better. If you’re not prepared to operate in shades of probability, data-informed decision-making becomes frustrating and underused.

These myths set organizations up for disappointment. The antidote is embracing nuance, defining terms upfront, and using data to support structured inquiry — not to rubber-stamp preconceived answers.

Creating a Culture Where Data Can Actually Change Minds

Afshar and Wernicke dive into the psychological safety and leadership behaviors needed to make data truly impactful.

Wernicke shares a simple three-question survey he gives audiences. Is your organization data driven? Most hands go up. In the last month, have you changed your mind based on data? Fewer hands. In the last month, has your manager publicly changed their stance because of new data? Almost no hands.

“People watch what leaders actually do, not what posters say.”

Several practical leadership moves emerged. First, ask junior people to speak first — Afshar cites Jeff Bezos’s practice of inviting the most junior person in the room to share their view first, reducing anchoring on the most senior voice and signaling that good ideas and strong data matter more than title.

Second, publicly model being corrected by data. Wernicke suggests leaders should actively seek out examples where data contradicts their stance, change their minds openly and visibly, and show that being wrong and adjusting is not punished, but respected.

Third, reward constructive dissent. Promotions, bonuses, and recognition should flow to people who use data to challenge assumptions productively, raise uncomfortable but important truths, and help the organization learn, not just comply. Without this, junior analysts quickly learn which kinds of numbers are career-enhancing and which are career-limiting — and they adjust accordingly.

Radical Data Integrity: Trustworthy, Not “Perfect”

On data quality, Wernicke introduces the idea of radical data integrity. Most organizations think good data means clean data — few missing values, numbers that tie neatly to the balance sheet. But for continuous, high-stakes decision-making, what matters more is trustworthiness.

Trustworthy data means you understand how it was generated, you know what it can and cannot be used for, you know who is accountable for it, and you can ask questions and get credible answers when something looks off. Cleanliness is useful, but integrity and transparency are critical if you want leaders to rely on data even when it challenges their instinct.

Most organizations struggle because they treat data as an annual spring-cleaning project: fund a one-time clean-up, declare victory, and watch entropy return over the next year. Instead, Wernicke calls for systemic and ongoing stewardship, where integrity is designed into processes and roles, not treated as a periodic initiative.

Bringing It Together: Winning with AI Because You're Data Inspired

By the end of the episode, the synergy between the two books is obvious. You can’t win with AI if you’re still frustrated with data. You can’t become data inspired without a culture of inquiry and psychological safety. And you can’t scale either without leaders owning AI as a strategic lever, not a technology project.

Charlene Li’s message: use AI to serve and accelerate your business strategy. Move beyond pilots, embrace speed, and invest in organizational readiness across mindset, skill set, tool set, and decision set.

Sebastian Wernicke’s message: make data’s purpose explicit — to drive change. Debunk the myths of objectivity and easy answers, build radical data integrity, and foster a culture where it’s safe, and expected, to let data challenge your beliefs.

Final Thoughts

DisrupTV Episode 443 makes an argument that cuts against a lot of conventional AI messaging: the hardest part of winning with AI was never the technology. It’s whether leaders are willing to do the harder, messier work of organizational change — owning strategy personally, killing the pilots that feel safe but go nowhere, and building a culture where data is trusted enough to actually change minds.

Charlene Li and Sebastian Wernicke approach the same problem from opposite ends and arrive in the same place. Li starts with AI and works backward to the organizational readiness required to use it well. Wernicke starts with data and works forward to the cultural conditions required to let it matter. Both conclude that the technology was never really the constraint — leadership, trust, and culture are.

For organizations willing to do this hard, human work — clarifying strategy, appointing real ownership, investing in fluency, and building a culture where being wrong in public is safe — AI stops being another wave of tech hype and becomes a genuine engine for transformation.

“Winning with AI starts with becoming data inspired — and that starts with leadership, not technology.”

Related Episodes

If you found Episode 443 valuable, here are a few others that align in theme or extend similar conversations:

Future of Work AI Chief Executive Officer Chief Technology Officer Chief AI Officer Chief Experience Officer

From “activation energy” and agent orchestration to donkeycorns and relationship capital, DisrupTV 425 explains what actually separates AI hype from real business impact.

On DisrupTV <iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/J5CupyHoVng?si=GHB_W8FIfV0UhJBW" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>

On-Prem or Cloud for AI? Outcome-Based Pricing and Spotting Agentic AI Washing

On-Prem or Cloud for AI? Outcome-Based Pricing and Spotting Agentic AI Washing

Enterprise AI strategy keeps circling back to the same hard questions: where should workloads actually run, how should vendors get paid for outcomes, and how can buyers tell real AI capability from a marketing label. Episode 132 of ConstellationTV takes on all three.


On-Prem or Cloud? The Debate Continues

Host Holger Mueller opened the episode with the Big Debate, joined by Michael Ni and Esteban Kolsky, on whether AI has to run in the cloud or can live on-premises. Michael argued that AI follows its own kind of gravity, pulling compute toward wherever inference demand and real-time decisions actually happen, which points toward a distributed model spanning cloud, edge, and on-prem layers. Esteban pushed back with a data-gravity and elasticity argument, comparing cloud economics to the historical shift away from companies generating their own electricity. Holger argued for the edge on cost and efficiency grounds, citing Apple's on-device AI push as evidence that enterprises don't need to run everything through the server. The debate landed where these things usually do: it depends on the layer, and the next few years will be about getting that placement right rather than picking a single side.

Personalization Is a Means, Not the Outcome

Liz Miller used her Marketing Minute to share takeaways from Pega World, Pegasystems' annual event. Her core point: personalization is a tactic, not the business outcome itself. The real goal is a more durable, profitable customer relationship, and Pega's customer decision hub has been quietly doing that work for years, well before "agentic" became the term of the moment. Liz also referenced comments from Pegasystems CEO Alan Trefler on deliberately testing and deploying agentic AI, without losing sight of why the work matters in the first place.

Outcome-Based Pricing: Great on the Whiteboard, Hard in Practice

Larry Dignan covered the renewed push toward outcome-based pricing, with Oracle, Pegasystems, HubSpot, and UiPath all referencing it recently. His take is skeptical. Outcome-based pricing runs into the same problems revenue-share models always have: nobody agrees on how to measure the outcome, nobody wants to give up their share once there's something to share, and it's unclear who bears the cost if an outcome takes more time or tokens than expected. Larry expects the topic to come up heavily on Q2 earnings calls, but his advice for now is to tread carefully.

Five Ways to Spot Agentic AI Washing

Holger closed the episode with a preview of his new Best Practice report on agentic AI washing, which extends the same skepticism that applied to cloud washing a decade ago. Of the 18 questions in the full report, he highlighted five: whether the capability existed before generative AI took off in 2023, whether it's just a chatbot with a new label, whether it actually runs in the cloud and can scale elastically, whether it can access third-party data rather than just the vendor's own, and whether the underlying capabilities are extensible rather than fixed. Vendors that fail these tests, in Holger's view, are most likely repackaging something that already existed.

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Will the Future Like You? Finding Purpose in the Age of AI | DisrupTV Ep 442

Will the Future Like You? Finding Purpose in the Age of AI | DisrupTV Ep 442

Will the Future Like You? Finding Purpose in the Age of AI | DisrupTV Ep 442

As AI learns to imitate us better than we know ourselves, two big thinkers ask the question that matters most: who are we becoming, and what are we actually here to do?

Key Takeaways

  • We’ve shifted from the search for self to the performance of self. After more than a decade of curating ourselves for algorithms, many of us are experiencing what Patricia Martin calls persona fog — a civilizational malady that obscures our core identity.
  • AI may become the most powerful persona fog machine yet. It can get you, amplify you, and optimize your style — ultimately authoring versions of you that you never intended.
  • The antidote to fragmentation is integration. Martin calls for becoming the editor-in-chief of your own identity — deciding what is really you, and discarding what isn’t.
  • Being truly seen is now a rare and powerful act. Putting the phone down and paying undivided attention to someone — child, partner, colleague — helps build their core sense of self in a way performance never can.
  • “Follow your passion” is often bad advice. Tom Rath argues we should ask what others need and what we can contribute, not just what fulfills us — because most people only ever see a tiny sliver of possible paths.
  • Purpose isn’t discovered once — it’s manufactured daily. Rath’s simple heuristic, “What’s the point?”, asked 3–5 times a day, reorders your calendar around contribution instead of reactivity.
  • In the AI era, originating beats responding. Routine, response-driven work is increasingly automatable. The future belongs to people who initiate ideas, relationships, and systems — not just execute tasks.
  • Don’t retire from contributing. Research shows that stopping all meaningful contribution is one of the worst things for long-term well-being — the form can change, but the contribution shouldn’t stop.

Part 1: Persona Fog — When the Performative Self Takes Over

Patricia Martin opens with a striking reframe of the last decade. We have moved, she argues, from the search for self to the performance of self. After years of curating, posting, and optimizing ourselves for algorithms, many of us are now experiencing what she calls persona fog — a civilizational malady of the psyche.

Persona fog emerges when our persona — Jung’s term for the social mask we wear — becomes load-bearing, carrying weight it was never designed to hold. We invest in multiple, fragmented personas in search of validation and attention, while the true self remains underneath, increasingly hard to access, like a landscape obscured by fog.

The symptoms, Martin says, are everywhere: chronic stuckness, persistent self-doubt, an inability to craft a compelling future story for yourself, and a deeper confusion that goes beyond what to do next — a confusion about who you fundamentally are.

“It's like moving a piano on a skateboard — we've taken the thinnest layer of our psyche and tried to make it carry our entire identity.”

Algorithms, Intermittent Reinforcement, and the Fragmented Self

Martin connects this directly to how social media and algorithms shape identity. Drawing on B.F. Skinner’s concept of intermittent reinforcement, she describes how content creators and everyday users experience wild, unexplained swings in reach — millions of views one day, a fraction the next. Over time, this erodes a stable sense of who we are and what works.

The result is a kind of self-editing by algorithm: we lean into the parts of ourselves that get rewarded and quietly delete the parts that fall flat. We accumulate multiple personas optimized for attention but disconnected from our core self — fueling an addiction-like cycle of posting more, tweaking more, and chasing the next hit of validation, fragmenting further with every round.

AI as the “Most Colossal Persona Fog Machine”

Martin has been working with AI since 2016, and her outlook is sober. AI, she says, is going to be the most colossal persona fog machine we’ve ever encountered. It will get you — deeply understand your patterns and preferences. It will amplify you — enhance your content and presence. And it will optimize you — performing your style better than you do.

The end result, in her words, is that AI will author versions of you that you never intended.

“My sense of self is not only taken away, it's been reiterated and changed, and I'm no longer who I am.”

In a world where the self is both a unit of measure and a unit for sale, and social media is the supply chain, AI doesn’t slow that system down — it accelerates it.

The Radical Act of Self-Determination

If AI, algorithms, and platforms are pushing us toward fragmentation, Martin’s counter-move is self-determination and integration. Consciousness, she argues, is the core tool we all have — a powerful, built-in guidance system that starts sending symptoms like stuckness, doubt, and discontent when it’s buried under layers of false selves.

We are entering an era, Martin says, where the most crucial work is integration — becoming the editor-in-chief of who you really are. This isn’t about quick hacks. We are inside a systemic problem, and systemic problems require self-development, step by step. A core practice is simple to state and hard to do: decide what is really you and what is not, and discard what isn’t true.

In this environment, Martin argues, true leadership will be defined less by hard technical skills and more by clarity of self, sovereignty over one’s identity, and the capacity for integration — including the shadow, in Jungian terms. These qualities will be rare, and therefore immensely valuable.

Reclaiming Attention and Transcendence

Martin cites her interview with Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, author of Flow, who distinguishes two levels of consciousness: attention, the lower grade, easily hijacked by platforms and notifications, and transcendence, the higher state where peak performance and deeper meaning reside. As our ability to control our focus erodes, so does our access to transcendence — with profound implications not just for performance, but for human flourishing itself.

Becoming more conscious about what we post, why we post it, and how it shapes us, Martin argues, is itself a way of reclaiming both attention and self.

Building Identity in Others: The “Good Enough” Parent, Partner, and Leader

Martin also stresses the constructive side: how we can help others build a stable sense of self in an age of attention scarcity. Drawing on psychiatrist Donald Winnicott’s idea of the good enough parent, she notes that identity is reinforced when someone who matters puts the phone down, pays real and undivided attention, and witnesses you at your most alive, engaged, and curious.

This applies to children, romantic partners, friends, coworkers, and team members alike. Moments of being truly seen — without performance, cameras, or algorithms — are now rare, and therefore deeply powerful. In this age, simply witnessing someone’s core self is an act of identity-building.

Martin prefers the term core self over authentic, noting how authenticity has been commoditized and is often performed online. The task, she says, is to recognize that each of us has an innate kernel, like the seed of a tree, develop reverence for that core in ourselves and others, and support growth that is consistent with that kernel — because a maple tree will always be a maple tree.

Part 2: What’s the Point? Turning Purpose into a Daily Superpower

If Martin explores how we’re losing ourselves, Tom Rath focuses on how we can rebuild purpose — not as a grand, once-in-a-lifetime revelation, but as something we manufacture daily.

Rath is the author of multiple bestsellers — including How Full Is Your Bucket, StrengthsFinder 2.0, Eat Move Sleep, and Life’s Great Question — with over 10 million copies sold. His new book, What’s the Point? Turning Purpose into Your Daily Superpower, takes direct aim at the conventional wisdom of follow your passion.

Why “Follow Your Passion” Is Bad Advice

Rath argues that follow your passion is not just incomplete — it’s often harmful, for two reasons.

First, it centers the self rather than contribution. Passion-based advice asks what do I love, what fulfills me. Rath urges a shift toward what do others need, what can I contribute — because the demand side matters: customers, clients, communities, loved ones.

Second, it operates through a tiny pinhole of exposure. Most young people only see what their parents do and what one or two admired adults do. In reality, you might need exposure to 50 or more roles just to understand the landscape of possibilities. Without that exposure, follow your passion becomes a function of inheritance and pressure, not informed choice. Rath even suggests we might do better, on average, randomly assigning people to early jobs than relying on the narrow career pathways driven by family and social expectations.

Raising Kids Beyond “What Mom and Dad Do”

Rath illustrates this with his own family. When his daughter was 14, she casually mentioned she might be a writer or a teacher — exactly what her parents do. That was a wake-up call: she was two for two in the only careers she’d truly seen up close.

His approach now is to be explicit with his kids: it’s okay if they end up in the same field as their parents, but only after exploring 10, 20, even 30 or more other possibilities. The goal is to intentionally widen the aperture so they don’t lock into a path simply because it’s familiar or convenient. Without that exposure, many people invest years of education and training in fields that aren’t truly aligned with their strengths or interests — only to discover, late, that they want out.

Purpose Is Manufactured in the “Lab of Our Daily Choices”

Rath originally planned to title the book Purpose Unlocked, but his research changed his mind. He found that when most people hear the word purpose, they feel stressed — they experience it as something huge, rare, and almost mystical, descending from the heavens once every couple of decades.

In reality, he argues, purpose is built in the microscopic decisions we make every day.

“Purpose is manufactured in the lab of our daily choices.”

It's less like finding one grand calling and more like planting seeds in a garden: the projects we choose to advance at 9:00 a.m., the meetings we prioritize at 2:00 p.m., the conversations we have — or don’t have — with family at the end of the day.

A Simple Heuristic: “What’s the Point?”

To make this practical, Rath uses a deceptively simple question — what’s the point? — which he literally writes on a whiteboard and applies throughout his day.

What’s the point of spending 45 minutes on 10 low-impact emails from people I barely know? What’s the point of having this routine 4:00 p.m. meeting — is it more important than a high-impact project, or a meaningful conversation with my kids?

By asking this question three to five times a day, Rath reorders his day around substantive, meaningful work, pushes low-value, reactive tasks later, and carves out more time and energy for work that has deeper impact, aligns with his strengths, and contributes to others. Over time, this creates a compounding effect: more of your calendar reflects purposeful contribution, and less of it is driven by mindless reactivity.

Flow, Focus, and the Shift from Responding to Creating

Rath connects this to flow and to the future of work in the AI era. We often think of flow only in terms of sports or performance — the basketball court, the keynote stage. But Rath experiences flow while deeply editing a manuscript on a Wi-Fi-less flight, when fully absorbed in learning about medical topics he cares about, and in substantive, undistracted conversations with the people he leads or mentors.

In the context of AI, he makes a crucial point. For years, it was plausible for some people to say I’m just a task or response person, I just execute. With AI rapidly automating routine, response-oriented work, that stance is no longer safe.

His conclusion: everyone, in every role, needs to shift toward initiating and creating — ideas, relationships, systems, and the development of people. If your job is primarily routine response, you are at high risk of being replaced by automation. The future belongs to those who originate — who can see needs and start things that matter.

Living on Borrowed Time and Post-Traumatic Growth

Rath’s view of purpose isn’t abstract — it’s shaped by his own experience living with a rare genetic cancer syndrome. At 16, he lost an eye to cancer and was told there was a 90% chance it would later appear in major organs, including the pancreas, kidneys, brain, and spine. Those predictions came true, and he has been battling cancer for more than 30 years.

That diagnosis hyper-focused him on what he could do physically to stay ahead of the disease, and what he could contribute that might outlast him. It also led him to the concept of post-traumatic growth: many people who face deep challenges emerge with greater motivation, clearer priorities, and a stronger desire to focus on what matters. He saw a similar pattern during the pandemic, as people suddenly asked what work and relationships would still matter if tomorrow looked very different.

Practically, he suggests investing even 30 minutes a day in a relationship, a project, or a piece of work that could still be helpful to someone a week, a month, or a year from now — what he calls evergreen contributions that continue to grow beyond the moment.

Don’t Retire From Contributing

Rath also points to global well-being research showing that some of the worst things for long-term well-being include the death of a child, divorce, and — surprisingly to many — retiring cold with no ongoing contribution. Simply stopping all meaningful work and engagement is devastating to well-being.

His message to those later in their careers: you may change form — paid work, volunteer roles, mentoring — but don’t retire from contributing. Careers don’t need to be smooth, upward lines; a spiky trajectory with reinvention can be healthy. And given that 80 to 90 percent of people likely never try what they’d be best at, disruption or job loss can be an opportunity to explore and realign.

Leadership in the Age of AI: Invest in People, Not Titles

For business leaders and people managers, Rath’s advice is clear. In the coming decade, one of the most valuable human skills will be the ability to observe what people do uniquely well, ask good questions, genuinely listen, and invest in others’ growth and development.

As more transactional, predictable work is automated, humans will increasingly need care, attention, development, and — in a very grounded sense — love. Rath encourages leaders to see talent development as central, not peripheral, to their role, to focus less on status markers and more on who people are becoming, and to recognize that what truly endures isn’t titles, compensation, or follower counts, but the long-term impact on people’s lives.

Rath shares a powerful personal anchor here: his grandparents’ influence — decades after their passing — still shapes his daily routine, parenting style, and worldview. That, he suggests, is what real leadership and legacy actually look like.

Final Thoughts

As the episode wrapped, Vala and Ray reflected on the privilege of spending an hour each week with thinkers who have written more than ten books and sold millions of copies, yet remain willing to share deeply personal stories.

Two big threads tie this episode together. The first is a question of identity: who are we becoming in a world of AI and algorithms? Patricia Martin warns of persona fog, AI-driven amplification, and the risk of losing our core self, and calls for integration, self-determination, and a renewed reverence for the core self in ourselves and others.

The second is a question of direction: how do we build purpose amid disruption? Tom Rath reframes purpose as something we build daily, not passively discover. He challenges us to replace follow your passion with follow your contribution, and offers a simple compass — what’s the point? — for structuring days, careers, and lives that matter.

In Ray’s words, we are in an age where we must question what it means to be human in the age of AI. If we lose sight of that, we risk losing sight of where humanity is going.

Read together, Will the Future Like You? and What’s the Point? offer a powerful dual lens. Martin helps us see how we’re being manipulated, fragmented, and performed. Rath helps us rebuild our lives around contribution, daily choices, and enduring relationships.

“The future may or may not like us — but these conversations offer a roadmap to liking ourselves, serving others, and staying human in a hyper-automated world.”

Related Episodes

If you found Episode 442 valuable, here are a few others that align in theme or extend similar conversations:

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