CompTIA is projecting that data scientists and analysts, cybersecurity analyst and engineers and software developers will see the most job growth in 2024 as hiring trends normalize.
Those in-demand roles are expected to post the most job growth over the next decade.
The projections in CompTIA's State of Tech Workforce 2024 report forecasts 300,000 net new IT workers this year, a gain of 3.1%. IT job growth in 2023 was 1.2%.
CompTIA acknowledged that the forecast doesn't account for the most recent trending data from monthly reports. CompTIA's forecast includes tech employment in the tech sector as well as tech-related positions.
According to CompTIA, its tech workforce report is based on data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and Lightcast.
CompTIA said in its report:
"Calculating future workforce needs over the next decade is a function of several variables. There is a growth component, which may entail organizations adding headcount due to expansion or possibly to support new emerging technologies. There is a retirement factor, with a portion of the workforce transitioning away from the labor market permanently. And lastly, there is a segment leaving the workforce for some other reason, also referred to as separations. These may stem from a career change, layoffs, a return to school, family pursuits, or other. Changes to any of these variables will affect future workforce projections."
Indeed, it's unclear whether positions today will equate to demand in a decade. Constellation Research analyst Holger Mueller said:
"We are seeing the last hurrah for data scientists and cybersecurity specialists – as CxOs need to make sense of their data (for data scientists). But traditional hiring for data scientists will give way to AI specialists. The college kid who played with prompts may easily be more valuable for the job than any data scientist, even if tied down in an AI project. As for cybersecurity, we will see the same. Software will do more and more, and AI will help identify threats and mitigate them. Both jobs are moving from operator led to self-driving – sooner than traditional projections make us think."
Among the key data points in the report:
- CIO and IT director job growth in 2024 is projected to be 3.6%, a rate on par with Web developers and interface designers.
- Since 2018, the IT services and custom software services category has accounted for 50% of job gains.
- 45% of the tech workforce works for technology companies with the remainder spread across multiple industries.
- Net tech employment in the US was an estimated 9.62 million workers.
- The replacement rate for tech occupations during 2024 to 2034 is expected to be 6% annually, or 350,000 workers each year.
- The US Bureau of Labor Statistics doesn't break out emerging tech roles yet, but new specialties such as jobs involving artificial intelligence are contributing to workforce growth.
- California is No. 1 in net tech employment by a wide margin followed by Texas, New York and Florida.
- Top metros by net tech employment are New York City, Washington DC, Los Angeles and San Francisco.
